基于EFDC城市景观湖泊水动力模拟研究

城市景观湖泊是生态城市建设的重要组成部分,其水流缓慢,水动力交换和自净能力较弱,水质易受城市排污、径流、人为活动等因素影响。本文应用EFDC(environment fluid dynamic code)三维模型研究分析了典型城市景观湖泊-天印湖的水动力特征,模拟了2011年9月至2013年12月水龄变化过程和时空分布,分析降雨径流和风力驱动对水龄的影响力。结果表明:天印湖的水动力主要驱动力为降雨径流,风力对水龄的影响很小。研究结论有助于理解城市景观水体的水动力特性以及进一步研究水动力对水质变化的影响,并为城市水环境建设和保护提供一定的方案支持。     

宿松-枞阳断裂最新活动时代及未来地震危险性研究

宿松—枞阳断裂卫星影像清晰,是一条对构造、地貌、中新生代盆地有着控制意义的断裂。本文对该断裂所处的区域地震地质构造背景进行了分析,结合断裂的发育历史,选择典型剖面,对断裂的最新活动特征进行调查。根据野外地质考察和断裂沿线地震活动统计结果,对断裂未来的地震危险性进行了定量评估。分析认为,该断裂晚第四纪以来仍然有所活动,但活动强度已减弱,未来可能发生无地表位错的中强地震,最大震级综合判定为M5.5。     

陕西五曲湾滑坡发育特征和~(14)C测龄

在陕西省凤翔县五曲湾滑坡的滑带土中发现一段树根,表面被炭化,并且发生了强烈的剪切变形,分析认为此乃滑坡滑动所致。经过14C测龄,年龄为462±45年B.P,这一年龄与地质分析获取的认识基本吻合,与1556年"华县大地震"发生的年份非常接近,从而为研究五曲湾滑坡的触发机制提供了重要依据。最后提出,如果在滑带土中发现可用于定年的样品,采用14C法测定滑坡年龄,是对滑坡进行定年的有效途径。     

Hope in a hopeless age: environmentalism’s crisis

In this short essay it is argued that recent criticisms portraying the activist environmental movement as overly pessimistic are valid and that the communication of this pessimism to the public at large has been largely counterproductive to the objectives of environmentalists. It is argued that, in contrast to historic assumptions of a ‘progress paradigm’ that epitomized the widely held optimism of the past, the shock tactics and pessimistic media campaigns employed by the activist environmental movement, and the media that capitalizes upon those campaigns, have contributed to the creation of a figurative hopeless age. The key characterization of the hopeless age is the widely held assumption that the future will be worse than the present and that the lives of future generations will be diminished relative to our own. It is argued that the creation of this social-psychological phenomenon is counterproductive to the aims of the environmental movement and that the restoration of a collective vision and message of hope would be far more productive. Lastly, some reasons for a hopeful outlook are suggested.

The effect of in utero exposure to dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls on reproductive development in eight year-old children

We have previously reported on the effects of in utero exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on thyroid function and growth hormone concentrations at birth and in two and five year-old children. Herein, we present our most recent follow-up examination findings for the same cohort of children at eight-years of age. A total of 56 children (23 boys, 33 girls) were examined. Bone age (BA), hormone concentrations, and indicators of reproductive development including Tanner, breast, genital, and armpit stages were assessed. Estradiol concentrations were significantly lower in children exposed to higher levels than median of PCDD/Fs + PCBs TEQ compared to the children exposed to levels lesser than median (P = 0.003). Girls exposed to higher levels than median of indicator PCBs had a significantly greater proportion in genital stage 1 and shorter fundi and uteri lengths, as compared to those exposed to low levels (P = 0.025 and P < 0.05, respectively). There was a significant negative relationship between estradiol concentrations and PCDD/Fs + PCB exposure level (P = 0.005). After adjusting for BA, there was a significant association between fundus length and indicator PCB exposure level (P = 0.034). Exposure to both high levels of ΣPCDD/Fs + PCBs TEQ and high levels of total PCBs was associated with decreased fundus length (P = 0.016) and uterus length (P = 0.016). In utero exposure to high levels of PCDD/Fs and PCBs may result in lower estradiol concentrations in eight year-old children and impaired reproductive development in girls.     

Investigating factors influencing pedestrian injury severity at intersections

Objective: Vehicle crashes that involve pedestrians at intersections have been reported occasionally. Pedestrian injury severity in these crashes is significantly related to driver and pedestrian attributes, vehicle characteristics, and the geometry of intersections. Identifying factors associated with pedestrian injury severity (PIS) is critical for reducing crashes and improving safety. For developing the proposed probit models, drivers involved in crashes are classified into 3 groups: young drivers (16 ≤ age ≤ 24), middle-aged drivers (25 ≤ age ≤ 64), and older drivers (age ≥ 65). This study determines that PIS is significantly but differently affected by these grouped drivers with different sets of explanatory variables.

Methods: A total of 2,614 crash records (2011–2012) at intersections in Cook County, Illinois, were collected. An ordered probit modeling approach was employed to develop the proposed model and examine factors influencing PIS. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess model performance. Elasticity analysis was conducted to interpret the marginal effect of contributing factors on PIS associated with different driver groups by age.

Results: The results show that 4 independent variables, including pedestrian age, vehicle type, point of first contact, and weather condition, significantly affect PIS at intersections for all drivers. Two additional independent variables (i.e., number of vehicles and traffic type) affect PIS for young and middle-aged drivers, and 2 other variables (i.e., divided type and hit-and-run related) are significant to PIS for both young and older drivers.

Conclusions: The independent variables significant to PIS at intersections for young, middle-aged, and older driver groups were identified and the marginal effect of each variable to the likelihood of PIS were assessed.     

晚更新世长江中下游沙山和黄土物质来源研究

风成沉积物的产生、搬运和沉积过程是地球各圈层相互作用的产物。晚更新世末次冰期时，长江中下游广泛分布沙山和黄土，对于它们是远源搬运而来，还是近源堆积一直存有争议。对青山、九江、定山和红光这些典型沙山和黄土剖面进行碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄分析，获得346个新数据结果，将其与潜在物源区的碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄进行对比，结合这些地层的沉积时代和区域内已报道的物源示踪结果，发现在末次冰期青山沙山和九江黄土的碎屑锆石来自近源的江汉平原，定山沙山和红光黄土的碎屑锆石来自赣江。长江中下游沙山和黄土的发育属于河流搬运的碎屑物质被东亚冬季风吹拂和高大地形阻挡发生沉积的模式。