系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

应用动态模型确定酸沉降临界负荷的探讨

任何一个天然生态系统都是一个稳定系统.在一定酸沉降量的作用下,生态系统最终会平衡在一个新的稳定状态.动态模型可以模拟不同酸沉降量下生态系统化学状态的变化趋势.根据信号与系统理论,这种趋势可以用一阶指数衰减函数进行模拟,以得到系统达到稳定状态时的化学指标值.根据不同酸沉降量和所对应的稳态化学指标值之间的剂量-响应曲线,可以求出当系统稳态化学指标值达到临界化学值时的酸沉降量,即为系统的酸沉降临界负荷.应用这种方法,以MAGIC模型为例,计算了四川峨眉山顶水和重庆南山湖泊的硫沉降临界负荷,分别为1.54和6.5     

Humanitarian governance and the consequences of the state‐fragility discourse in the Democratic Republic of Congo's health sector

This paper examines how the discourse on state fragility affects the preferences of key actors in humanitarian governance for different types of health‐sector interventions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It argues that, instead of focusing on the actual meaning of state fragility, attention should be paid to interactive processes around the discourse among stakeholders in the health sector. The lack of consensus on state fragility influences humanitarian governance, especially the perceptions of and interactions between the host government, donors, and international non‐governmental organisations. The latter have legitimised the persistence of vertical, emergency‐based interventions by emphasising state fragility, whereas state officials have preferred to assert political statehood and a higher degree of control. Nevertheless, they agree that donors’ financial contributions ensure the survival of the public health sector. Looking ahead, a policy coalition based on harmonised views about addressing fragility is necessary for effective engagement and the sustainability of interventions, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic determinants of winter foraging and breeding phenology in a temperate seabird

In temperate regions, winter presents animals with a number of challenges including depressed food abundance, increased daily energy requirements, higher frequency of extreme weather events and shortened day length. Overcoming these constraints is critical for overwintering survival and scheduling of future breeding of long-lived species and is likely to be state dependent, associated with intrinsic abilities such as food acquisition rates. We examined the relationship between environmental and intrinsic factors on overwintering foraging and subsequent breeding phenology of the European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis, a diurnal marine predator. We tested a range of hypotheses relating to overwintering foraging time and location. We found that individuals greatly increased their foraging time in winter to a peak of more than 90% of available daylight at the winter solstice. The seasonal patterns of foraging time appear to be driven by a combination of light levels and weather conditions and may be linked to the availability of the shag's principal prey, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. There was no evidence that shags dispersed south in winter to increase potential foraging time. Foraging time decreased after the winter solstice and, crucially, was correlated with subsequent breeding phenology, such that individuals that spent less time foraging in February bred earlier. The relationship was much stronger in females than males, in line with their more direct control of timing of breeding. Our results demonstrate that pre-breeding intrinsic foraging ability is critical in determining breeding phenology.     

High-energy milling to decontaminate soils polluted by polychlorobiphenyls and atrazine

Mechanical energy has been used so far for running chemical reactions and for preparing new materials in absence of solvents. Very recently, the technology has been applied to solve environmental problems. In this paper, we describe the application of high-energy milling (HEM) for the remediation of soils contaminated by chlorinated organic compounds such as polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and agrochemicals like atrazine. NaBH₄ and LiAlH₄ have been successfully used for the total dehydrohalogenation of both classes of compounds, leaving a residue lower than 2 ppmw of the starting compound in the treated soil. LiAlH₄ was found to be more active than NaBH₄.     

UniTank工艺流程中磷酸盐浓度的非稳态特征

利用ASM2D数学模型对上海石洞口污水厂UniTank工艺流程中磷酸盐浓度进行了仿真研究,发现该流程中磷酸盐浓度具有非稳态特征.增加反应器的曝气强度,会增加UniTank流程边池的硝态氮浓度,弱化边池的厌氧释磷,相应增加出水中磷酸盐含量.     

计算机辅助确定外因火灾位置方法

系统介绍用计算机辅助确定矿井外因火灾位置方法的原理,给出该方法的具体步骤,剖析其定性分析、定量分析和定量分析结果评价三大步骤中的各技术关键,并借助一个实例验证了该方法实用的可行性     

地面水水样预处理技术研究

研究了地面水中重金属元素Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb、Cr、Ni及Hg溶解态与悬浮态的分离技术;采用原子吸收光谱法定量测定上述元素,并比较了分离后两态重金属元素的浓度差异。实验结果,重金属元素大部分以悬浮态存在于水体中,溶解态的含量极微。采用最佳的过滤分离(滤膜和滤纸)和离心分离技术,能得到较好的分离效果,而澄清分离是不可取的,因其难以规范化。指出在地面水分析中,必须建立严谨和统一的地面水预处理技术,才能保证环境分析数据的准确性和可比性。