长沙市两种空气质量预报方法检验对比

为探索新的空气质量预报方法，提高预报准确率，采用统计和对比方法，分析了长沙市空气质量现状，介绍了天气形势相似及动态逐步回归两种空气质量统计预报方法，并对其一年多的运行结果进行了检验和对比。结果表明，长沙市空气污染主要由PM\-\{10\}和SO\-2浓度超标引起, 且具有明显的空间分布特征;5年来长沙城市空气质量明显好转;两种预报方法对各污染物都有一定的预报能力，预报的误差绝对值多集中在30以内，而级别误差基本上在1级以内。两种方法对NO\-2的预报准确率均在98%左右,预报效果优良。绝对误差对比发现，两种预报方法对SO\-2的预报明显优于PM\-\{10\}预报；级别准确率对比时，两种预报方法对3种污染物的预报准确率相近。两种预报方法对3个污染因子的预报准确率呈现出NO\-2优于SO\-2优于PM\-\{10\}的趋势。     

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Process of Agricultural Sustainable Development

Abstract

To promote modern agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modern agriculture in China. This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level, and chooses rural labor, per capita income of rural residents, rural investment, proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables, and total power of machine as induced variable. The major results show that the relativity of modern agricultural equipment level, rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable, and they are the major influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level. Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and development and promotion of advanced and applicable modern agricultural equipment, improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.     

Organisational challenges in the United Kingdom's post‐disaster ‘crisis support’ work

Local authorities in the United Kingdom are required to ‘lead’ multi‐agency humanitarian responses to major disasters. Concerns mounted in the late twentieth century that responses to people bereaved in the immediate aftermath of such events at best failed to meet their needs and at worst compounded their distress. Subsequent reviews and reforms reframed some victim needs as ‘rights’ and established legal, administrative, and practice frameworks to improve matters. Local authority ‘crisis support’, provided in partnership with other actors, lies at the heart of the UK's contemporary emergency response to the bereaved. Drawing on primary research on the development and the deployment of crisis support in a local authority, and while acknowledging both incident‐ and context‐related difficulties, this paper considers the significance of challenges with their origins in organisational factors. Recent developments within and between responders may exacerbate them. This paper argues, therefore, that further research into such developments is necessary.     

黄河三角洲土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究现状与展望

土地利用/土地覆盖变化是全球环境变化研究的3个核心主题之一。黄河三角洲是我国乃至世界造陆速度最快的河口三角洲之一。伴随着人口的不断增加,黄河流域经济的发展,河口地带油气的开发,黄河三角洲土地利用/土地覆盖发生了迅速的变化,从而引发了土壤盐渍化、水污染严重、湿地资源保护受到威胁等一系列生态环境问题。论文以黄河三角洲为典型样区,把其土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究作为全球环境变化研究的一个缩影,为全球性土地利用/土地覆盖变化模型的建立提供依据。论文首先介绍了黄河三角洲概况,其次对该地区土地利用/土地覆盖变化探测方法、结果进行了对比、归纳,接着回顾了该地区对土地利用/土地覆盖变化的驱动力分析以及模型预测,然后介绍了土地利用/土地覆盖与环境变化交互作用等的研究状况,最后总结了目前黄河三角洲土地利用/土地覆盖研究所取得的成绩和存在的不足,同时为进一步开展该地区的研究工作提出了若干建议。     

小清河水中沉积物与铅离子吸附等温线的研究

运用界面分极离子/配位子交换原理和方法研究了小清河水中沉积物对Pb^2 的交换吸附等温线以及赖氨酸对吸附作用的影响。研究结果得出等温线具有1个“拐点”2个“平台”。用分级离子交换等温式求出平衡常数k1和k2,当低浓度的氨基酸存在时,对铅与沉积物的交换吸附起促进作用。     

生活垃圾处理项目风险分析与对策研究

论述了垃圾处理项目全过程风险管理的内容及项目的风险特性,在对垃圾处理项目的风险因子分析的基础上,从整体上提出了风险管理对策,并强调垃圾填埋场是垃圾处理项目社会风险对策的最后一道屏障。     

Effect of a heavy metal model mixture on biological parameters of rainbow trout <Emphasis Type="Italic">oncorhynchus mykiss</Emphasis>

The effects of a model mixture (HMMM) of seven heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Ni, Cr, Pb, Cd, Mn) on the rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at all stages of development (embryos, larvae, adults) were investigated based on the annual average concentrations of these metals in cooling waste waters discharging from Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania) into the Drūk?iai lake. According to mortality parameters, the most sensitive to HMMM were larvae, although no significant differences between the sensitivity of embryos and adult fish to HMMM were found. Maximal toxic effect of HMMM was observed during the hatching period. Long-term exposure to sublethal concentrations of HMMM affected embryo development, growth of larvae, their cardio-respiratory and behavioural responses, induced significant changes in morphological, morpho-physiological, physiological and haematological parameters of adult fish. Respiratory responses and growth parameters of fish were found to be the most sensitive to low concentrations of HMMM. Adult fish were capable of detecting and avoiding low, sublethal concentrations of HMMM. Heavy metals in a mixture at low concentrations were more toxic than single ones. According to the background of the damages induced by HMMM, after-effects in a fish organism, as well as in a whole population, can be predicted.     

Local and systemic induced responses to cabbage root fly larvae (Delia radicum) in Brassica nigra and B. oleracea

Summary. Feeding by belowground herbivores may induce systemic changes in shoot defence levels that affect the performance of above ground herbivores and higher trophic levels. In this paper two wild Brassica species, B. nigra and B. oleracea were experimentally infested with 10 larvae of the cabbage root fly, Delia radicum. Plant dry masses and glucosinolate levels in shoots, main roots, and fine roots were determined at 3, 7, 12 and 14 days after infestation and compared to those of control plants. The systemic response in the leaves differed between plant species. In B. nigra shoot glucosinolate levels in D. radicum infested plants steadily increased with time until they were almost twice those of controls 14 days after infestation. B. oleracea plants infested with D. radicum did not show significant changes in shoot glucosinolate levels within 14 days, which may be due to the unexpected poorer performance of D. radicum on this species. Both plant species showed a local increase in indole glucosinolates in the main roots, which are the preferred feeding site of D. radicum larvae. B. oleracea plants however showed a stronger (1.9 – 4.7 times) increase in indole glucosinolate levels than B. nigra (1.5 – 2.6 times). The increase in indole glucosinolates in B. nigra main roots, was counterbalanced by a significant decrease in aromatic glucosinolate levels. These differences in local responses to D. radicum feeding between the two species may have contributed to the slower growth rates of the larvae on B. oleracea. D. radicum feeding did not result in altered glucosinolate levels in the fine roots in either plant species. The differences in glucosinolate induction patterns between the summer annual B. nigra and the perennial B. oleracea are discussed in the light of their different life histories.     

不同植物叶片臭氧伤害症状及其生理响应机制的差异

快速发展的城市化和工业化引起近地层臭氧浓度不断升高,对城市绿化植物具有很大的毒性伤害。选择城市常见的景观植物万寿菊、矮牵牛及圆叶牵牛为供试植物,利用开顶式气室,研究了不同植物臭氧伤害症状及其生理响应机制的差异。结果表明:1)臭氧暴露后,供试植物叶片均出现了不同程度的臭氧伤害,或叶脉间黄化(万寿菊和矮牵牛),或出现白色斑点(圆叶牵牛),且随臭氧浓度升高其黄化程度加剧,白色斑点亦扩张形成白色斑块,最终叶片从症状形成的地方开始干枯。2)臭氧暴露加剧了供试植物叶片膜脂过氧化程度,但对可溶性蛋白含量没有显著影响,说明植物生长后期臭氧暴露并没有造成蛋白质退化进而引起植物抗臭氧胁迫能力的下降。3)臭氧暴露后万寿菊叶片茉莉酸含量降低,矮牵牛叶片水杨酸含量显著升高,而圆叶牵牛既有水杨酸含量的升高又有茉莉酸含量的降低,说明不同植物对臭氧伤害的激素响应是不一致的,茉莉酸保护能力减弱引起了臭氧对万寿菊叶片伤害,水杨酸过度累积造成了矮牵牛叶片的臭氧直接伤害,而圆叶牵牛的臭氧伤害则是2种原因都可能存在。因此,在大气臭氧浓度尚不能有效控制的情况下,明确不同植物臭氧伤害形成的激素响应,以采取针对性保护措施维持其最大生态效益。