大连市空气污染预测预报统计方法的研究

通过分析大连市的大气污染因子与气象因子的关系 ,利用统计学中多元回归的方法 ,建立了大连空气污染预测预报方程。     

千岛湖蓝藻生物量制约因素分析

以千岛湖监测数据为依据，运用相关性分析和多元逐步回归统计方法，对蓝藻生物量与环境理化指标的关系进行研究分析，找出与蓝藻生物量显著相关的环境因子，建立多元逐步回归方程，预测千岛湖藻类生物量的变化情况，分析结果表明，水温，水深和总磷为蓝藻生物量的显著相关因子。     

东北红松林生境区划方法研究

本文通过红松年轮生长分析,用红松年生长量与23个气候因子逐步回归。结果表明:红松生长与7月平均温度,≥5℃积温,年降水量密切相关。根据这3个气候因子综合进行红松生长量适宜性区划,划分出:红松生长不适宜区,适宜较差区,适宜区3个区域。这与实际红松分布区域是吻合的。充分证明了红松的分布与其气候相适应,更进一步的说明了红松阔叶林是该地区的一种稳定的地带性植物群落。红松生长适宜区的区划,对人造红松林也会提供一定的科学依据。     

Fluoride distribution and the effect of some ions along Alexandria coastal Mediterranean seawater of Egypt

The coastal seawater of Mediterranean of Alexandria receives large amount of discharged waters containing industrial wastes, sewage, and agricultural and domestic drainage. Fluoride and some parameters were( chemical and physical) determined. The data gave indication that the content and the amount of the discharged water largely affect the chemical composition of the coastal water. Stepwise regression analysis was highly significant and the model was very fruitful, where the observed and calculated values were mostly concordant. This may indicated that there was a relation between fluoride content in cosslal seawater and its content in the discharged water.     

Propagation functions for monitoring distributional changes

In environmental assessment and monitoring, a primary objective of the investigator is to describe the changes occurring in the environmentally important variables over time. Propagation functions have been proposed to describe the distributional changes occurring in the variable of interest at two different times. McDonald et al. (1992, 1995) proposed an estimator of propagation function under the assumption of normality. We conduct a detailed sensitivity analysis of inference based on the normal model. It turns out that this model is appropriate only for small departures from normality whereas, for moderate to large departures, both estimation and testing of hypothesis break down. Non-parametric estimation of the propagation function based on kernel density estimation is also considered and the robustness of the choice of bandwidth for kernel density estimation is investigated. Bootstrapping is employed to obtain confidence intervals for the propagation function and also to determine the critical regions for testing the significance of distributional changes between two sampling epochs. Also studied briefly is the mathematical form and graphical shape of the propagation function for some parametric bivariate families of distributions. Finally, the proposed estimation techniques are illustrated on a data set of tree ring widths.     

辽西大凌河流域土地利用变化及驱动力分析

从政策、流域综合治理、经济发展和技术进步、农民认知态度等4方面对影响大凌河流域土地利用变化的驱动力进行了分析。同时运用农户问卷调查和驱动力分析结果,选取影响耕地变化的社会经济和人口因子,运用主成分分析和多元迭代回归分析确定影响耕地变化的主要因子,并拟合出耕地变化的最优度模型。研究结果表明:在1987—2002年期间,农田和未利用荒地面积在不断减小,而林地、果园、草地在不断增加,但1995年后变化边际度大大减小;主成分分析表明影响土地利用变化主要影响因子是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE)、农林牧渔收入(IAFAF)和第三产业总产值(GTI);多元迭代回归分析表明耕地面积变化的最优回归模型中主变量是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE),这些变量能够解释95.1%的耕地变化。     

Logistic Regression在我国河流水系氮污染研究中的应用

对四川省岷江、沱江及嘉陵江流域和江西省的赣江流域及鄱阳湖地区共170多个水文站的数据进行了相关分析和多元回归分析。结果表明，河流水中硝态氮浓度与年降雨量、人口密度、氮肥施用量、牲畜饲养量、农作物及粮食作物种植面积等因素有较好的相关性。以以上数据资料为基础，将河流水NO3^--N的浓度划分为背景浓度（＜0．7mg/L)、受人类活动的显著影响的NO3^--N浓度（＞3．0mg/L)以及中间类（0．7－3．0mg/L)进行Logistic Regression分析，两个Logistic模型的准确度分别达82．46％和89．19％。运用Logistic模型对整个长江流域河流水中NO3^--N浓度进行估计，结果与实测值基本相符合。     

中国固体废弃物增长与经济增长的数量关系分析

文章选取1990-2004年中国固废总量同经济总量的时间序列,从固废增长同经济增长的相关关系出发,围绕着固废增长同经济增长的数量特征,通过相关系数分析、对数模型回归分析及其检验和因果关系阐述,研究经济增长与固废增长的演替轨迹,并建立经济增长与固废增长的计量模型.研究结果表明:在目前状况下,中国经济增长是固体废弃物增长的推因,但是固废增率明显低于经济增长率.最后对实证研究结果作出相关定性分析.     

Modelling of the relationship between trace elements and three species of sulfur in coal

Based on the determination of several trace elements in coal particulate of different specific gravity, three-variables regression equations relate the contents of trace elements Be, Cd, Co, Pb, Cu, Ni, As and three species of sulfur in coal were well established. For elements Cd, Co, Pb, Cu and Ni, the regression equations were successfully used for prediction of these trace elements in individual part of coal with different specific gravity. Factor analysis was also used to analyze the data sets. The results showed that a three factor model can interpret the data sets reasonably. Trace elements Cd, Co, Pb, Cu, Ni, inorganic sulfide and total sulfur in coal are high correlated with the first factor. Trace elements Be, sulfate and organic sulfide are high correlated with the second factor and trace elements Cr and As are high correlated with the third factor. The factors can be interpreted by the chemical properties of these elements.     

1979-2014年中国地面风速的长期变化趋势

基于中国国家级地面气象站均一化风速月值数据集,采用线性回归等方法分析了1979-2014年中国2268个台站地面风速演变的时空特征。结果表明：中国地面风速总体呈显著下降趋势,年平均风速变化速率为-0.142 m/s/10 a;四个季节中春季平均风速下降趋势（-0.18 m/s/10 a）明显大于其他三个季节,其次依次为冬季（-0.135 m/s/10 a）、夏季（-0.13 m/s/10 a）及秋季（-0.129 m/s/10 a）;研究选取的台站中约82%的台站风速呈现下降趋势;划分的七个区域中,高原区和东北区风速下降趋势最明显,华北区下降趋势最小,但都通过了0.05显著性检验;中国地面风速在1980s下降趋势最显著（-0.235 m/s/10 a）,1990s下降趋势减缓（-0.112 m/s/10 a）,2000-2014年下降趋势最小,为-0.099 m/s/10 a;研究期间地面风速与地面气温呈显著负相关,表明近期中国气温变暖可能导致风速减弱。