我国典型季风海洋型冰川积累区冰雪剖面的环境记录

运用多种方法,对白水1号冰川积累区冰雪剖面的主要阴、阳离子和δ18O的环境意义分析表明,受强烈淋溶作用影响,离子和δ18O的季节变化不明显,剖面离子浓度显著低于雪坑,离子流失量较大。NH4+年际变化最为显著,与丽江降水表现出相同的变化趋势,Mg2+和Ca2+浓度与冰雪剖面净积累量呈反向变化。分析表明,阴离子主要是湿沉降产物,阳离子主要是干沉降产物。该剖面所反映的13年δ18O比率变化介于-11.8‰～-14.6‰。冰雪剖面中δ18O与西南季风指数、冰雪剖面积累量、丽江降水和丽江气温呈反向变化,表现出显著的"降水量效应"。     

汶川地震盆地效应的思考与建议

通过实地考察及资料搜集,统计分析了汶川地震中地貌以及局部场地条件对震害的影响。根据受灾城市所在地理位置的不同,将城市分为盆地内部(成都)、盆地边缘(都江堰、绵竹、江油、什邡)、盆地外部(北川)3类,分别统计了震害情况,分析了震害原因。发现在这次地震中盆地效应尤其明显,盆地边缘震害比较严重;盆地中部震害较轻;山区的震害比平原的严重,尤其是在两个距离比较近的山体之间的地区,除了地震灾害之外,滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害也很严重。最后对建筑抗震设计提出了几点建议。     

强震记录中速度大脉冲模拟及其对反应谱的影响

在近断层地震中,具有速度大脉冲的强震动对建筑物的影响较大。为了描述速度大脉冲,Makris和Roussos提出了由简单连续函数构成的模型,该模型参数较少、形式简单,用来描述实际地震记录中的速度脉冲大多取得较好的效果,但还是有一些记录模拟的结果会出现"丢失"现象,存在一些缺陷。针对此问题,本文提出了2个改进的方法——组合法和镜像法,用来扩展Makris和Roussos模型的适用范围,使其具有更好的适应性。     

气候变化背景下鄱阳湖流域历史水旱灾害变化特征

收集了鄱阳湖流域公元381~1949年共435 a水旱灾害历史记录。结合历史气候变化的现有研究成果,划分了干旱、湿润历史周期及其起讫时间,根据历史记录承载的信息对水旱灾情严重程度进行科学分级并赋予相应湿润指数值。通过改进水文统计中的P-Ⅲ型频率曲线适线法,分别率定了公元960~1949年期间各湿润、干旱时期湿润指数的均值、方差和离差系数,研究了鄱阳湖流域历史水旱灾害的变化特征。结果表明:公元960~1698年鄱阳湖流域经历了湿润—干旱相间的3个周期,1699~1949年遭遇长达250 a以上的湿润多雨气候。湿润期遭受洪灾年份比旱灾年份多,且大洪灾年数远比于大旱灾年数多;干旱期遭受旱灾年数略多于洪灾年数,但大旱灾年数比大洪灾年数多一些。研究结果对探索鄱阳湖演变、湖区资源开发利用和湿地生态系统演进的历史过程可以提供比较可靠的气候变化依据。     

Identifying Sighting Clusters of Endangered Taxa with Historical Records

Abstract: The probability and time of extinction of taxa is often inferred from statistical analyses of historical records. Many of these analyses require the exclusion of multiple records within a unit of time (i.e., a month or a year). Nevertheless, spatially explicit, temporally aggregated data may be useful for identifying clusters of sightings (i.e., sighting clusters) in space and time. Identification of sighting clusters highlights changes in the historical recording of endangered taxa. I used two methods to identify sighting clusters in historical records: the Ederer–Myers–Mantel (EMM) test and the space–time permutation scan (STPS). I applied these methods to the spatially explicit sighting records of three species of orchids that are listed as endangered in the Republic of Ireland under the Wildlife Act (1976): Cephalanthera longifolia, Hammarbya paludosa, and Pseudorchis albida. Results with the EMM test were strongly affected by the choice of the time interval, and thus the number of temporal samples, used to examine the records. For example, sightings of P. albida clustered when the records were partitioned into 20‐year temporal samples, but not when they were partitioned into 22‐year temporal samples. Because the statistical power of EMM was low, it will not be useful when data are sparse. Nevertheless, the STPS identified regions that contained sighting clusters because it uses a flexible scanning window (defined by cylinders of varying size that move over the study area and evaluate the likelihood of clustering) to detect them, and it identified regions with high and regions with low rates of orchid sightings. The STPS analyses can be used to detect sighting clusters of endangered species that may be related to regions of extirpation and may assist in the categorization of threat status.     

The Input and Transmission of Fallout Radionuclides Through Redó, a High Mountain Lake in the Spanish Pyrenees

Fallout radionuclides have increasing value as tracers of pathways for pollutant transport through catchment/lake systems, in addition to their more traditional role in dating sediment records. The objectivesof this study, carried out within the EU MOLAR project, were tomeasure atmospheric fluxes of fallout ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ⁷Be at Redó, to establish mass balances for theseradionuclides, and test and validate models of pollutant transport through the lake and its catchment. This was achieved by comparing measured fluxes and concentrations in the water column with theoretical estimates using simple compartment models. Several interesting points emerged. Differences betweensoil core and rainwater measurements suggest that Saharan dust may be an important source of fallout ²¹⁰Pb. Fluxes throughthe water column had a clear seasonal trend reflecting winter icecover. Significant concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs are still presentin the water column, due to continued inputs from the catchment and/or remobilisation from the bottom sediments.     

现代环境事件的冰芯记录

1997年9月，在喜马拉雅山中段希夏邦马峰北坡达索普冰川海拔7000m冰雪平台钻取14m冰芯一支。1990年以来冰芯中主要离子浓度的变化表明，现代环境事件在达索普冰川雪冰中有一定的记录。已有的证据表明1991年达索普冰芯中SO^2-4浓度的最高值最大可能是由海湾战争引发的1991年春季科威特油井燃烧污染物所致。冰芯中陆源离子（如Ca^2 和SO^2-4等）记录与我国西北地区春季沙尘暴具有某些相关性，其逐年变化趋势与新疆13个城市的降尘变化有一定的共性。     

Assessing possible exposures of ground troops to agent orange during the vietnam War: The use of contemporary military records

BACKGROUND: Potential exposure of ground troops in Vietnam to Agent Orange and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) remains controversial despite the passage of 30 years since the Vietnam War. Because of uncertainty over the serum dioxin levels in ground troops at the end of their service in Vietnam, attempts have been made to develop a methodology for characterizing exposure of ground troops in Vietnam to Agent Orange and other herbicides based upon historical reconstruction from military records. Historical information is often useful in evaluating and modeling exposure, but such information should be reasonably accurate, complete, and reliable. METHODS: This paper reviews the procedures and supporting historical information related to the spraying of herbicides in Vietnam. The historical information is classified into two categories: procedural information and operational information. Procedural information covered the process and procedures followed in spraying herbicides from US Air Force fixed wing aircraft (Operation RANCH HAND) in Vietnam, and included approval procedures for spray missions, the criteria required to conduct a mission, the control exercised by the Forward Air Controller and the Tactical Air Control Center and the characteristics of the equipment used to apply the herbicides. Operational information includes data from the RANCH HAND Daily Air Activities Reports, which included geographic locations of specific spray missions, the amount of herbicide sprayed by a specific mission, reports of battle damage to spray aircraft, reports of fighter aircraft support for aerial spray missions, and any comments, such as reasons for canceling a mission. RESULTS: Historical information demonstrates that herbicide spray missions were carefully planned and that spraying only occurred when friendly forces were not located in the target area. RANCH HAND spray missions were either not approved or cancelled if approved when there were friendly forces in the area designated for spraying. Stringent criteria had to be met before spray missions could be approved. The operational information shows that spray missions for both defoliation and crop destruction were conducted in an extremely hostile environment. Heavy 'fighter suppression' with antipersonnel ordnance was used to minimize the impact of hostile ground fire on RANCH HAND aircraft. Procedures were in place that prohibited movement of troops into sprayed areas immediately after a mission due to the possible presence of unexploded ordnance delivered by fighter aircraft supporting RANCH HAND missions. The optimal nature of the spray equipment and application procedures minimized the possibility of significant spray drift. Conclusions. Few friendly troops were sprayed by fixed wing aircraft during Operation RANCH HAND, which delivered 95% of all defoliants used in Vietnam. Similarly, few troops were sprayed during helicopter or surface-based spray operations, which constituted the remaining 5% of defoliants. Detailed policies and procedures for approval and execution of spray missions ensured that friendly forces were not located in the areas targeted for spraying. Fighter aircraft assigned to accompany each spray mission frequently suppressed much of the hostile fire with bombs and other ordnance. Confirmed clearance of the target area was necessary to avoid friendly casualties. Historical records establish that these policies and procedures were strictly followed. Exposure of troops whether from direct spraying or movement through areas recently sprayed was very unlikely. The wartime military records of troop positions and herbicide operations are valuable for some purposes, but have specific limitations in exposure reconstruction. The completeness and accuracy of the geographic data (maps used by RANCH HAND and military ground units) were dependent upon the inherent precision of the map, the accuracy with which it depicted surface features, and the completeness and accuracy of the information on which it is based. Navigation by the crew using visual orientation and reference to the map was the only means that aircrew on spray missions had for establishing their locations. A Forward Air Controller independent of Operation RANCH HAND was present at the location of each spray target immediately before and during spraying operations to verify the target location and ensure that friendly forces were clear of the target area. Anecdotal reports of direct spraying of troops in Vietnam likely reflect the RANCH HAND missions spraying insecticide for mosquito control at regular intervals from March 1967 through February 1972. Outlook. The distribution and levels of serum dioxin in RANCH HAND veterans and the US Army Chemical Corps Vietnam veterans (the unit responsible for helicopter and ground-based spray operations) are distinguishable from typical levels in the population decades after the Vietnam conflict. An exposure model similar to that proposed in the 2003 report of the Institute of Medicine's Committee on 'Characterizing Exposure of Veterans to Agent Orange and Other Herbicides Used in Vietnam' was tested in 1988 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and found to be a poor predictor of absorbed dose of TCDD. Military records during the Vietnam War lack the precision to determine that troops were directly sprayed with herbicides during Operation RANCH HAND, especially given the procedures in place to ensure clearance of friendly forces from the target area and the lack of elevated serum levels of TCDD in ground troops judged to have operated in heavily sprayed areas.     

Potential Ecological Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Buffel Grass in Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract:  Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity. Such is the case of buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distributions, suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the arid and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.