基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究

为分析近年来江苏省苏北地区季节性干旱灾害特征,利用苏北五市1989~2013年的逐月降水量资料,建立月降水量的广义极值分布函数,通过分析广义极值干旱指数(GEVI),研究苏北五市近25a的季节性干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用去趋势波动分析方法(DFA)对苏北五市月平均降水量的周期性规律进行研究。结果表明,苏北五市的月降水量均服从广义极值Fréchet概率分布,且具有从西北(徐州)地区向东南沿海(盐城)地区递增的空间分布特征,整体上属于干旱灾害频发的地区,且以轻旱为主且季节性特征明显。苏北五市的月降水量存在幂律相关性,即降水量具有较强的正长程相关性,因此,未来苏北地区干旱的总体趋势将与过去特征正相关。     

Evolution Rules of Urban-rural Development and Inspiration for China’s Agriculture

Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient,this article designs the agriculture relative development index(ARDI) as indicators measuring the intensity of urban-rural dual structure which is comparable among the countries of the world.This article calculates ARDI of 40 countries from 1980 to 2004.The result shows that ARDI in the developed countries and most of the middle-income countries are rising and yet there are declines in most of the low-income countries.The result also showed that most countries’ ARDI...     

Measurement of public awareness of climate change in China: based on a national survey with 4,025 samples

Just before the new round of UN climate change conference in Bonn, a survey report, named as the Climate Change in the Chinese Mind 2017, was released in Beijing. The investigation was conducted in the form of a computer-assisted telephone survey with a sample size of 4,025 samples, covering 332 prefecture-level administrative units and four municipalities in China. Urban-rural proportion and sex proportion were specially taken into account, so as to demonstrate the Chinese public awareness objectively. The investigation measures the public awareness from six aspects, which includes climate change beliefs, impacts, response, policies, actions, and the assessment of the effectiveness of climate communication. This article presents the key findings of the survey and provides further insights behind the data.     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

建设项目竣工环保验收中公众参与的探讨

建设项目竣工环境保护验收是我国环境保护管理的重要手段。阐述了建设项目竣工环境保护验收中公众参与的法律和制度基础,竣工环保验收中公众参与不仅能维护公众的环境权益,为竣工环保验收“三同时”制度的执行提供可靠依据,还可以推动环保行政主管部门决策的民主化、科学化。研究了竣工环保验收中公众意见调查的现状及存在的问题,提出加强和规范建设项目竣工环保验收公众参与的建议。     

Investigation of the complexation of metal-ions by strong ligands in fresh and marine water

SCOPE: The detection and investigation of metal ions bound in strong complexes in natural waters is a difficult task, due to low concentration of the metal ions themselves, and also of the strong ligands, which, moreover, are often not of a well-defined composition. Here, a method is proposed for the investigation of the speciation of metal ions in natural waters. OBJECTIVE AND METHOD: It is based on the sorption of metal ions on strongly sorbing ion exchange resins, i.e. complexing resins. For this reason the method is called Resin Titration. It has been shown in previous investigations that the concentration of metal ion totally sorbed by a particular resin, and its reaction coefficient in the solution phase in the presence of the resin, can be determined from the sorption data using a simple relationship. Here, a data treatment (the Ruzic linearization method) is proposed for also determining the concentration of the ligands responsible for the complex in equilibrium with the resin. RESULTS: The method was applied to data obtained by Resin Titration of a freshwater and a seawater. Copper(II) and aluminium(III) were considered, using Chelex 100 as a titrant, due to its strong sorbing properties towards these metal ions. The results were: the total metal concentration in equilibrium with the resin, the side reaction coefficients, and the concentration of ligands. In all these cases the ligands forming very strong complexes were found to be at concentration lower than that of the metals. CONCLUSION: The Ruzic linearization method allows the determination of the concentration of the ligands forming very strong complexes in equilibrium with Chelex 100. The reaction coefficient was better determined by the calculation method previously proposed for RT. The ligands responsible for the strong complexes were found to be at low concentration, often lower than that of the metal ions considered. The metal in the original sample is partly bound to these ligands, since the complexes are very strong. Only a part of the metal is linked to weaker ligands, or free.     

江苏省某镇土壤重金属污染评价

为了解江苏省某镇表层土壤重金属污染特征,采集并测定了190个土壤样品的As、Cd、Hg和Pb 4种重金属含量,分析土壤重金属的分布特征,综合运用内梅罗综合污染指数法和污染负荷指数法两种评价方法对土壤重金属污染状况进行评价。结果表明：该镇表层土壤中As、Cd和Pb含量平均值高于土壤背景值,Hg与之相反。4种重金属都是主要受到点源污染的影响,其中As的高含量区主要分布在镇的正西边,Cd和Pb的高含量区主要分布在镇的中心区域,Hg的高含量区主要分布在东部以及东北区域。经内梅罗综合污染指数法评价,安全、警戒线、轻污染、中污染和重污染样点的比例分别为5.79%、32.11%、52.11%、4.74%和5.26%。经污染负荷指数法评价,无污染、轻度污染、中度污染和重度污染样点的比例分别为73.69%、25.26%、1.05%和0%。在内梅罗综合污染指数法和污染负荷指数法评价的结果中,有55.26%的样点评价结果相同,而44.74%的样点不同,但都显示出污染程度从镇中心向四周逐渐降低的变化态势。     

基于化工园区整体风险量分析的安全规划研究

通过对园区安全容量和危险量的分析,得到园区整体的风险评估值;提出并定义园区危安比最大临界点,用其反映园区的最大可接受风险量;运用"二八法则",确定危安比上限;当危安比在3种不同值域区间下,对应的园区安全规划的重点不同;从园区整个生命周期考虑,提出包含各个阶段的园区安全规划主要内容。     

三峡二期工程与湖北的机遇和挑战

１９９７年１１月１８日,三峡工程大江截流成功,标志着第一期工程结束、进入第二期工程实施阶段。长江三峡水利枢纽具有防洪、发电、航运和供水等巨大综合效益,是跨世纪特大型水利工程。它的建设,不仅对我国能源秘至整个经济布局产生极大的影响,而且对湖北长江经济带的形成与发展具有决定性的意义。     

我国可持续发展十大目标：关于“十五”计划制定的建议

“十五”计划是我国２１ 世纪的重大发展计划,直接关系着国民经济的发展方向,而实施可持续发展战略是我国“十五”计划和２０１５ 年远景规划的重要内容之一。为改善人民生活质量,改变“高资本投入、高资源消耗、高污染排放”发展模式,建立适合中国国情的“资源节约型”和“环境友好型”国民经济体系,充分利用“两种资源”和“两个市场”,本文提出了我国可持续发展的十大目标