多种环境雌激素对淡水鱼联合毒性作用的预测和评价

为预测和评价多种环境激素对生物的联合毒性效应,通过对雄性鲫鱼卵黄蛋白原诱导作用探讨了17β-雌二醇、17α-乙炔基雌二醇、双酚A、辛基苯酚等几种环境雌激素联合作用的环境影响.确定了每种化合物的剂量-效应曲线,混合物由单个化合物等毒性固定浓度比例混合而成,实验得出的混合物效应与通过浓度相加或反应相加作用模型计算得出的混合物效应比较.结果有很好的一致性.上述结果证明了类雌激素化合物呈现相加作用方式,即使在单独作用无显著效应的较低浓度下也可产生显著的混合物效应,混合物效应可通过两类模型预测.由于环境污染物组成往往不明确,通过浓度相加作用模型预测的结果较为保守,在环境风险评价中更加实用.     

制革废水处理技术研究进展

近年来随着制革工业的发展,制革废水的排放造成了严重的水体污染,同时废水中含有的有毒有害物质对人体健康也产生了极大的威胁,因此,寻求一种高效、经济可行的制革废水处理技术有着重要的意义。由于制革废水成分非常复杂且含有许多有毒物质及高浓度的盐类,使得制革废水的治理异常困难。目前在制革废水治理的研究中取得了许多新的重要进展,通过对各种治理方法的分析提出了制革废水处理的发展方向。     

空气环境质量评价分析的数学方法及应用

用空气污染指数法,进行空气质量评价;用主成分分析法进行污染因子分析;用秩相关系数检验法作污染趋势分析。并根据淮安市2004-2007年实测空气质量日报资料,说明上述方法的应用。     

呼和浩特市十年来环境空气污染趋势分析

通过对呼和浩特市10年的环境空气监测数据进行分析,结果表明,二氧化硫、总悬浮颗粒物呈下降趋势,二氧化氮变化不大,尘是影响呼市环境空气质量的主要污染因子,并提出了改善呼市大气环境质量的对策。     

CFB锅炉多点排放大气环境污染风险预测

循环流化床锅炉（CFB）脱硫除尘系统复杂,操作不当容易导致大气污染事故的发生。通过对CFB锅炉多点排放明大气污染因子及其在大气中的扩散分析,建立了多点排放时SO2和总悬浮物颗粒（TSP）的大气环境污染的风险预测模型。模型结果较好地反映了CFB锅炉风险排污的影响因素及其环境容量的限值要求,这对于合理控制风险排污条件,加强现有CFB的运行管理是必要的。     

介绍水体污染的三种鉴别方法

介绍了水体污染的三种鉴别方法,应用调查法、监测法和预测法,可以鉴别水体是否受到污染和将会受到污染,从而建立了一套水体污染鉴别方法。     

Topical scientific and practical issues of wildland fire problem

Problem of wildfires has not been resolved anywhere in the world. Mere increase of technical power does not lead to desirable results. Forests of developed countries burn as actively as those in Africa or in Russia. The main reasons of wildfire problem are as follows: (1) Constant wandering of dry seasons over the planet causing outbreaks of wildfires. (2) Unpredicted self-development of ordinary wildfires into awful fire disasters. (3) Difficulties in delivery and use of heavy machines on hardly accessible territories. (4) Absence of a perfect technique for economic evaluation of how effectively the wildfire control system works. (5) Absence of the system of payments encouraging wildfire fighters. To solve the problem of wildfires in Russia it is necessary to: (1) Create the Russian wildfire behaviour and fire effects prediction system on the basis of the developed classification of vegetation fuels and methods of their mapping as well as maximum utilization of forest inventory information and Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Elaborate a technique of proper wildfire monitoring including estimation of vegetation damage. (3) Improve daily rating of regional fire danger. (4) Improve fire-preventive arrangement of the territory covered by vegetation, the main goal being creation of favourable conditions for active fire management. (5) Choose the main direction in elaboration of fire-fighting means and methods taking into account their universality, simplicity, reliability, etc. (6) Elaborate an improved technique for estimation of economic effectiveness of the wildfire control system. (7) Develop international cooperation of scientists and professionals in fire management.     

A High‐Resolution National‐Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model

Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.     

基于云推理和模糊逻辑关系模型的干旱等级预测方法研究

针对月平均降水量时间序列存在模糊性和随机性的特点,给出一种结合云推理和模糊逻辑关系的干旱等级预测方法。采用徐州站1951~2014年逐月降水量数据,通过计算标准化降水指数(SPI),得到实测干旱等级序列,以1952~2013年SPI指数数据作为样本数据,并提取样本模糊时间序列的52条模糊逻辑推理规则,将某月份的SPI指数数据作为输入变量,利用云发生器进行云推理,得到未来相应月份的干旱等级预测结果。结果表明,研究方法对干旱发生具有一定预测能力,尤其是对无旱的预测比较准确,但是对于干旱状态突变的预测能力较弱,主要是由于发生严重旱灾的可能性较少,导致模糊推理规则较少。因此,对于江苏省以轻旱为主的苏北地区,可以作为早期干旱预警的参考。     

长江中游荆南三口河系径流演变特征及趋势预测

以荆南三口五站1951~2015年实测径流数据,利用Mark-Kendall趋势突变检验法、累计距平、Morlet复小波等方法分析三口河系径流演变特征;选用ARIMA模型和时间序列模型预测荆南三口河系径流演变趋势。结果表明:(1)荆南三口径流年际变化较大,径流年内分配不均匀,5~10月为丰水期,11月~次年4月为枯水期,呈现出明显季节差异;(2)三口径流总体上呈下降趋势,其中以1959~1980年径流下降趋势最为明显,其趋势幅度p的绝对值达到了698.313,2003~2015年径流下降趋势较为缓慢,无明显趋势,但其p的绝对值仍达到了166.524;(3)运用Mark-Kendall突变检验及累计距平法共同检验,三口径流突变年份为1970年、1985年;(4)1951~2015年间三口径流变化过程主要存在48~58 a、20~28 a、10~18 a 3个尺度的周期变化,以55 a、24 a、14 a为周期中心,其小波方差显示三口径流序列第一、第二、第三主周期分别为55 a、24 a、14 a;(5)三口径流在2016~2030年呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,即2016~2018年为波动增减期,2019~2026年前后为枯水期,2026~2030年为丰水期。