Indicators for sustainable energy development in Lithuania

This article summarizes some of the results from the application of the indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED) tool for analyzing Lithuania's energy sector, in terms of trends, setting energy policy goals and monitoring progress towards these goals. This experience illustrates the potential applicability of the ISED methodology for energy policy development in economies in transition, using Lithuania as an example. The article presents a summary of the results achieved and conclusions arrived at from the analysis of six priority areas in the context of the research project coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and provides recommendations for the development of sustainable energy policy using the ISED approach.     

安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

Archaeological Evidence of Validity of Fish Populations on Unexploited Reefs as Proxy Targets for Modern Populations

Reef‐fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large‐scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space‐for‐time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space‐for‐time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400–1700) through historic (AD 1700–1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times. Evidencia Arqueológica de la Validez de Poblaciones de Peces en Arrecifes Sin Explotar como Objetivos de Apoderamiento para Poblaciones Actuales     

Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico

Protected areas (PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) are the top two mechanisms available for countries to achieve international REDD agreements, yet there are few empirical comparisons of their effects. We estimate the impacts of PAs and PES on forest conservation, poverty reduction, and population change at the locality level in Mexico in the 2000s. Both policies conserved forest, generating an approximately 20–25% reduction in expected forest cover loss. PES created statistically significant but small poverty alleviation while PAs had overall neutral impacts on livelihoods. Estimates by individual policy type for the same level of deforestation risk indicate that biosphere reserves and PES balanced conservation and livelihood goals better than strict protected areas or mixed-use areas. This suggests that both direct and incentive-based instruments can be effective, and that policies combining sustainable financing, flexible zoning, and recognition of local economic goals are more likely to achieve conservation without harming livelihoods.     

Village-scale reserves in the forest frontier regions of Chenes and Calakmul,Mexico

ABSTRACT

Sketch-map-facilitated interviews were conducted in 23 villages in two adjacent regions in the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico – the Maya (and increasingly Mennonite) forest-agriculture mosaic of the Chenes, and the late-20^th-century-settlement forest frontier of Calakmul – to determine the frequency and typology of local-scale reserves, including the external (e.g. Payments for Environmental Services programs) and internal sources of their generation. 9% of the study communities are found to satisfy the author’s criteria for deliberate, autochthonous reserves. The static polygon reserve and static map are found to have limited value for understanding the evolving cultural ecologies of these regions. Alternative approaches are discussed, particularly those employed by geographers.     

防洪物资储备决策方法初探

根据防洪抢险物资储备属于一种信息不全型决策问题的特点，本文提出了一种用于确定每年防灾物资准备量概率排序决策模型，并以孙不河流泥石流灾害预报火灾决策为例进行说明。     

加强土壤污染防治资金和工程项目管理的建议

文章首先分析了中央财政土壤污染防治专项资金的性质,结合资金管理办法进一步阐明了资金使用范围、资金分配方式、绩效导向和信息公开要求。分析了部分省份开展的土壤污染防治工程项目、资金管理制度建设的现状和获得2016年第一批土壤污染防治专项资金支持项目的情况,对比指出了在支持重点、支持方式上的不同特点。基于主要问题,从加强土壤污染防治项目储备库建设、开展项目与资金规范管理的制度建设、明确不同对象的组织管理职责、重视咨询服务队伍和专家队伍建设等四个方面,阐述了加强土壤污染防治项目组织和资金管理的建议,为相关环境管理部门提供决策参考。     

机载武器及其双配套设备可靠性鉴定试验方案的分析

通过分析机载武器的使用特点和情况,并结合实验室开展机载武器可靠性鉴定试验的已有经验,对该类装备的可靠性鉴定试验的方案进行了分析和讨论,对试验样件在充足或不足的条件下进行试验的各种试验方案进行了深入分析。指出了各种方案的优缺点,对比了各种试验方案的特点。最后给出了机载武器可靠性鉴定统计试验方案的选取原则。     

ABC算法优化SVR的磨损故障预测模型

目的为了提高故障预测的精度,针对支持向量回归SVR(Support vector machine for regression,SVR)参数选择困难的问题,提出一种采用人工蜂群(artificial bee colony,ABC)算法优化支持向量回归(SVR)的故障预测模型(ABC-SVR)。方法该模型先对样本数据进行重构,然后将故障预测误差(适应度)作为优化目标,通过ABC算法寻优找到最优的SVR参数,建立故障预测模型。最后通过实例仿真验证模型的优越性。结果采用ABC算法优化的SVR故障预测模型进行时间序列预测,能够较好地跟踪发动机滑油金属元素浓度的变化过程,并且能够提前2个取样时间预测异常情况的出现。结论 ABC-SVR模型有效解决了SVR参数选择难题,能够更加准确地表现故障变化规律,提高了故障预测精度。     

水专项"十三五"时期辽河流域水环境管理研究思路初探

以水专项在辽河流域实施的阶段性成果及辽河流域水环境管理现状为基础,分析"十三五"时期辽河流域水环境管理的需求,提出构建成套流域水环境管理技术体系和管理大平台、全面建设并优化水生态环境监测网络、实行水环境管理的动态调节机制和建立健全流域水环境管理长效机制的水环境管理研究思路,并指出研究应密切结合地方管理,充分发挥地方环境管理的责任主体地位,为水专项第三阶段"综合调控"战略目标的实现提供有力支撑.