陆缘伸展区的地震激发机制

江苏所处的中国东部被当代横贯欧亚的北西西向环球螺旋形扭转断裂带（其东段即大别—舟山断裂）分割为南部的褶皱山带隆升区和北部的沉降区。软流圈从太平洋方向面楔入北部区，使该区岩石圈减薄，陆壳向海洋伸展、离裂，产生郯庐断裂等具有直扭性质的近南北向软流（及地幔）底辟，并伴随有多层水平拆离面，所见为高导低速的水平破裂带。绝大多数地震沿着其中埋深１５ｋｍ（±５ｋｍ）的第一水平破裂带发生，使北部区成面积性地震区。结合高压物性实验所得的岩石微破裂规律（…分割—错位—嵌合—再分割…）判断得知，水平破裂带中的膨胀增厚部分的流体处在超压状态而成为储能体，在陆壳伸展运动中会突然释放能量而诱发地震。因此，根据已有实际分析认为：强震和频震区的发展的必要条件是软流楔入和陆壳伸展，而其充分条件是储能体在软流冲击和增温效应下的爆裂或突然塌缩事件。据此可根据软流运动和岩石圈结构预测未来震中，建立中、长期预报甚至短临预报的监控系统     

Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.     

Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making

The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). As the production system shifted from Cwheat - CFE–beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and ‘tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input.     

Impacts of Chronic Anthropogenic Noise from Energy‐Sector Activity on Abundance of Songbirds in the Boreal Forest

Abstract: The effects of human activities in forests are often examined in the context of habitat conversion. Changes in habitat structure and composition are also associated with increases in the activity of people with vehicles and equipment, which results in increases in anthropogenic noise. Anthropogenic noise may reduce habitat quality for many species, particularly those that rely on acoustic signals for communication. We compared the density and occupancy rate of forest passerines close to versus far from noise‐generating compressor stations and noiseless well pads in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using distance‐based sampling, we found that areas near noiseless energy facilities had a total passerine density 1.5 times higher than areas near noise‐producing energy sites. The White‐throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis), Yellow‐rumped Warbler (Dendroica coronata), and Red‐eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus) were less dense in noisy areas. We used repeat sampling to estimate occupancy rate for 23 additional species. Seven had lower conditional or unconditional occupancy rates near noise‐generating facilities. One‐third of the species examined showed patterns that supported the hypothesis that abundance is influenced by anthropogenic noise. An additional 4 species responded negatively to edge effects. To mitigate existing noise impacts on birds would require approximately $175 million. The merits of such an effort relative to other reclamation actions are discussed. Nevertheless, given the $100 billion energy‐sector investment planned for the boreal forest in the next 10 years, including noise suppression technology at the outset of construction, makes noise mitigation a cost‐effective best‐management practice that might help conserve high‐quality habitat for boreal birds.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

火电厂烟道的优化分析

以某电厂2×1 000 MW机组的引增段烟道为例,基于CFD模拟软件开展了烟道系统的优化分析,优化后降低了系统压损122 Pa,年节约运行费用约35万元,投资回收期为0.57 a。优化后的方案较原方案大大降低了系统的磨损及振动,有利于电厂的安全可靠运行。     

基于灰色-马尔科夫模型的我国能源消费结构优化调整

本文以我国1997—2010年的消费结构数据为基础,运用灰色-马尔科夫链模型对数据进行了分析和预测,然后通过MATLAB预测了我国未来十年的能源消费结构,结合我国政府承诺的非化石能源目标对模型预测结果做了进一步的修正,最后根据能源发展趋势给出了能源消费结构的优化策略。     

天津市能源足迹变化的驱动力分析

为促进天津市可持续发展,运用能源足迹分析方法,对天津市2000-2012年能源足迹的变化进行了分析;采用STRIPAT模型,对引起能源足迹变化的人口数量、城市化率、富裕度、产业结构和技术水平驱动力进行了研究.结果表明:天津市能源足迹年均增长7.59％,生态环境承受了巨大压力;人口数量和城市化率对天津能源足迹的正向驱动作用较强,技术水平则有很强的负向驱动作用,富裕度和产业结构的驱动作用相对较小.为保证经济稳定可持续发展,天津市需要不断优化产业结构,提高整体技术水平,促进人与城市和谐发展.     

基于生命周期的轨道交通能耗与碳排放分析

轨道交通的高效低污染特征备受关注,以广佛二期地铁为研究对象,测算广佛二期地铁的能源消费量,以及CO2、CH4、N2O等温室气体(Greenhouse Gases,GHGs)排放量;再基于生命周期理论,采用量化方法对比广佛二期地铁与出租车、私人载客汽车、公交车、私人摩托车4种客运交通工具的能源利用效率、能源强度、碳排放强度;最后,分析广佛二期地铁对佛山市交通行业能耗和GHGs排放的影响.结果表明,广佛二期地铁近期能源消费量为4 562.95 t标准煤,CO2排放量为12 651.57 t,CH4排放量为0.152 t,N2O排放量为0.201 t.与燃油机动车相比,广佛二期地铁具有更高的能源利用效率,同时具有较高的节能减排潜力.研究表明,广佛二期地铁的开通不但是缓解佛山市机动车辆增长的重要方式,而且对城市交通节能减排具有重要意义.     

有机过氧化物在生产、储运过程中的危险与可操作性分析

有机过氧化物的易燃、受热分解等特殊性质和生产、储运过程要求严格的低温条件与操作程序,使得有机过氧化物潜在的危险性很高。通过基于有机过氧化物危险特性及其在生产、储运过程中物质、能量与信息的分析,依据物-能量-信息的安全要素体系,应用危险与可操作分析方法,研究了有机过氧化物的安全理论,在某种程度上是延伸了HAZOP分析的内容。