On the latent state estimation of nonlinear population dynamics using Bayesian and non-Bayesian state-space models

Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies.     

城市污水回用三种处理工艺的选择

本文针对我国城市二级出水的特点,研究了污水深度处理的三种工艺:絮凝沉淀过滤、微絮凝过滤和直接过滤.装置采用网格反应池、翼片斜板沉淀池、气水同时冲洗粗砂滤池.药剂选用聚合硫酸铁,试验规模120m~3/d.     

化学纤维栅湿式过滤除尘的实验研究

化学纤维栅湿式除尘是一种复合机理的新型湿式过滤除尘技术,其过滤风速为2～10m/s,阻力仅为200～500Pa,除尘效率达到99.62％,能很好解决矿山溜井卸矿产生的粉尘,使溜井含尘气流经净化后达到新鲜风流卫生标准。     

炉渣用于深层过滤的试验研究

将炉渣用作深层过滤的床层过滤,在油田水处理中具有良好的应用前景。通过对炉渣滤料的物性测定,对流体力学性能、过滤性能及反洗性能的研究,获得了有关炉渣滤料的粒径分布、床层孔隙率、密度、吸水率等物性参数,以及清洁滤料床层阻力与速度的关系曲线和流化曲线,过滤条件下床层阻力随时间的变化关系和悬浮物脱除率随时间的变化曲线,炉渣床层的反洗曲线。结果表明：炉渣表面粗糙,有棱角,吸附表面积大,孔隙率大,过滤效果好;炉渣滤料密度小,反洗效果较好,反洗用水量只是过滤水量的５％左右;同时,炉渣作为滤料用于深层过滤,不仅来源广泛,而且属废物利用。     

曝气生物滤池快速启动和活性保持性能研究

研究了两级曝气生物滤池处理生活污水时各级的快速启动和在低负荷下活性保持的能力,考察了出水中主要污染物和生物滤池内生物量随时间的变化情况。结果表明,碳氧化生物滤池从低负荷恢复时,所需要的时间与活性保持时的负荷大小有关,负荷越小,所需要的时间越长。在极端情况下,恢复时间接近一次完全启动的时间,因此碳氧化生物滤池的低负荷维持并没有太大的实际意义。而硝化生物滤池在低负荷下活性保持良好,重新启动仅需要完全启动1/10的时间,这就有可能以低成本实现硝化生物滤池的活性保持。     

淹没式曝气生物滤池脱氮除磷工艺的运行调试

根据昆山市中华园城市污水站的实际调试经验，探讨了曝气生物滤池工艺对进水浓度、混凝预处理、尾气预曝气、DO、反冲洗周期和强度等工艺参数的不断调整和控制，并总结出较佳的运行参数，具有一定的实际运行指导作用。     

曝气生物滤池处理化学药剂废水的试验研究及影响因素分析

探讨了对于难处理的化学药剂废水曝气生物滤池处理的可行性，分析了影响曝气生物滤池处理效果的若干因素，试验结果表明，废水的温度、pH值、气水比及水力停留时间等是影响滤池处理效果的重要因素，控制废水水温在15℃以是，pH在7．3．8．3之间，气水比10：1，水力停留时间大于10h，可以取得较为理想的处理效果，出水CODcr，和BOD5的去除率可分别达到58％和90％以上。     

生物膜填料塔SO2废气净化性能研究

采用生物膜填料塔净化SO2废气,研究结果表明:当气体流量从100L/h增加到300L/h时,SO2净化效率由86.4%下降到73.2%;生化去除量随着入口SO2气体浓度的升高而增大;随着温度的升高,SO2净化效率和生化去除量都随之提高,且20℃以上时,净化效率可达90.9%以上,生化去除量可达75 mg/L·h以上,更利于微生物降解SO2.     

Traffic congestion and ozone precursor emissions in Bilbao (Spain)

GOAL. SCOPE. BACKGROUND: In urban environments, the measured levels of ozone are the result of the interaction between emissions of precursors (mainly VOCs and NOx) and meteorological effects. In this work, time series of daily values of ozone, measured at three locations in Bilbao (Spain), have been built. Then, after removing meteorological effects from them, ozone and traffic data have been analyzed jointly. The goal was to identify traffic situations and link them to ozone levels in the area of Bilbao. METHODS: To remove meteorological effects from the selected ozone time series, the technique developed by Rao and Zurbenko was used. This is a widely used technique and, after its application, the fraction obtained from a given ozone time series represents an ozone forming capability attributable to emissions of precursors. This fraction is devoid of any meteorological influence and includes only the apportion of periodicities above 1.7 years. In the case of Bilbao, the ozone fractions obtained at three locations have been compared on that time scale with traffic data from the area. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For the 1993-1996 period, a regression analysis of the ozone and traffic fractions due to periodicities above 1.7 years (long-term fractions), shows that traffic is the main explanatory factor for ozone with R2 ranging from 0.916 to 0.996 at the three locations studied. Analysis of these longterm fractions has made it possible to identify two traffic regimes for the whole area, associated to different profiles of ozone forming capability. The first one favors low ozone forming capability, and is associated with a situation of fluent traffic. The second one shows high ozone forming capability and represents congestion. Joint analysis of raw data of ozone and traffic do not show any clear pattern due to the strong masking effects that seasonal-meteorological effects (mainly radiation) have on the measured ozone signal. If only immission data of ozone are available, as in this case, a comparison between ozone and traffic can only be made on the long-term time scale, since that is the only fraction embedded in the ozone time series that can exclusively be attributed to emissions of precursors. This fact stresses the need to study the different fractions embedded in the time series of ozone measured levels separately. CONCLUSION: Though the coefficients obtained in the regression are only valid for the 1993-1996 period, these traffic regimes represent long-term targets (congestion or fluent traffic) that can inspire policies for a joint management of the traffic and pollution by ozone in the area of Bilbao beyond that period. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The results of this work show the need of a joint management of ozone and traffic in Bilbao. Since an accurate knowledge of traffic was not available, the use of emission factors to relate traffic and actual ozone levels has not been possible. For this reason, this study has focused on the long-term fractions of traffic and ozone. In the future, if a more accurate knowledge of traffic is available, it will be possible to find relationships between traffic and ozone on all time scales.     

曝气生物滤池去除有机物与反应常数及膜厚的关系

推导了BAF前置反硝化工艺简化动力学模型,揭示了BAF去除有机物与反应速率常数与膜厚的关系。同时以生物膜中活性物质与非活性物质增长生物数学模型体系为基础,从理论上推导了BAF最佳膜厚的范围。