气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响

借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期（1961—1979年）和影响期（① 1980—1989年、② 1990—1999年、③ 2000—2016年）,利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量（VIC）模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响 ② 期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响 ① 期和 ③ 期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响 ① 期和 ③ 期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响 ② 期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。     

我国能源资源税改革对城乡居民的收入分配效应——基于CGE模型的分析

通过构建包含7个城镇居民组和5个农村居民组的多收入阶层CGE模型,并将劳动力要素分为农业劳动力、技术工人和生产工人3类,在低税率、实际税率和高税率三种情景下模拟了煤炭、石油和天然气资源税改革单独实施和同时实施对城镇和农村居民的收入分配效应,并对税收补偿措施的效果进行分析.结果表明：单独实施煤炭资源税或天然气资源税改革对城镇居民组收入差距有正向的缩小作用,有利于收入分配公平,但对农村居民组收入差距起到负向的扩大作用,不利于收入分配公平;单独实施石油资源税改革则同时缩小了城镇和居民组的收入差距,有利于收入分配公平;同时实施三类能源资源税改革的收入分配效应与税率组合方式有关;将能源资源税收入以补贴的方式返还给农村居民可以缩小其收入差距,有利于收入分配公平.     

基于BP神经网络的北京城区公园土壤PAHs含量预测

城市公园是城市生态环境的重要组成部分,其环境质量与人类健康息息相关.选择北京市121个城区公园,采集公园土壤样品并分析其中7种多环芳烃（PAHs）含量,评价城区公园土壤中PAHs的含量水平,并基于BP神经网络预测了2020年和2023年土壤PAHs含量.结果表明:北京城区公园土壤中w（PAHs）（7种PAHs总含量）范围为0.033~4.182 mg/kg,低于GB 36600—2018《土壤环境质量建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准（试行）》土壤污染风险筛选值,且7种PAHs的毒性当量浓度（TEQ）均低于世界卫生组织标准值（1 mg/kg）,对人体健康的毒性风险较小.将14个影响指标（8个社会经济因子与6个公园特征因子）作为输入层、土壤w（PAHs）作为输出层,建立BP神经网络的拟合优度达0.845.预测结果显示,2020年和2023年北京城区公园土壤中w（PAHs）范围分别为0.008~0.969 mg/kg和0.022~1.988 mg/kg,整体均低于GB 36600—2018土壤污染风险筛选值,但随时间推移呈上升趋势,尤其朝阳区和海淀区将有大幅增长.研究显示:城市化发展因素对土壤w（PAHs）的增加有明显影响,城市发展进程影响不容忽视;至2023年,北京城区公园土壤若不加管理,其w（PAHs）将持续增长.      

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

Floristics, performance and prognosis of historical trees in the urban forest of Guangzhou City (China)

Outstanding historical trees embedded in cities constitute pertinent environmental assets, yet they are widely threatened in third-world cities. Inadequate understanding of this valuable natural-cum-cultural heritage hinders proper conservation. A case study of Guangzhou in south China evaluated floristic composition, age profile and biomass structure of historical trees, assessed their performance in major habitats (institutional, park and roadside), and established a prognosis for future growth and management. The 348 historical trees examined belonged to only 25 species, vis-à -vis 254 trees in the entire urban forest, dominated by five species and native members. Roadside had more trees, followed by institutional and park, with merely the most common four species shared by all habitats. The limited commonality reflected tree-performance differentiation by habitats exerting selection pressure on species. The institutional growth-regime was more conducive to nurturing high-caliber specimens, whereas park is less capable. Individual species achievement by habitats, derived from tree-count ranking and relative-abundance indices, could inform species choice and tree conservation. Few trees exceeded 300 years of age in the millennium-old city, echoing a history of intense tree—city conflicts. Potential life-span, trunk and crown diameters indicated ample opportunities for further expansion of biomass and landscape impacts, which would be straitjacketed by the tightening urban fabric.     

基于颗粒物浓度的沙尘天气分级标准研究

沙尘天气在近年对我国城市空气质量造成明显影响。目前我国沙尘天气分级仍然按照气象标准 ,主要是以水平能见度进行分级。文章参考国外的有关标准 ,通过统计近年来我国沙尘天气过程中的颗粒物浓度 ,结合我国沙尘天气的发生情况和特点 ,提出了基于沙尘浓度的沙尘天气分级标准     

Seasonal characteristics of haze observed by continuous visibility monitoring in the urban atmosphere of Kwangju, Korea

Continuous visibility monitoring has been carried out inKwangju, Korea since May 1999. The total light extinctioncoefficient b _ext measured by a transmissometer andreveals seasonal trends in urban visual air quality,especially under hazy conditions with a visual range of lessthan 15 km. Seasonal atmospheric visibility under lowrelative humidity during the winter was observed to be betterthan during any other seasons. Summertime visibility wasseverely degraded due to highly increased light scattering byhygroscopic particles under high humidity atmosphericconditions. Visibility during spring and fall was alsomoderate. However, yellow sand in spring caused the lowestvisibility conditions over the measurement area for a fewdays. With continuous monitoring using the transmissometer,the daily average seasonal visual range was measured to be13.1, 9.2, 11.0, and 13.9 km in spring, summer, falland winter, respectively. Under the atmospheric humiditycondition less than 60%, visual range was observed tobe 16.1, 13.9, 15.1, and 16.6 km in spring, summer,fall, and winter, respectively. The mean light extinctionbudget by sulfate and nitrate aerosols was determined to bethe highest value of 63.71% during the summer and thelowest value of 27.08% during spring. During the `yellow sand dust' period, a mean light extinction budget by soil particles was estimated to be at an unusually high value of 44.22%.     

profiling areas of ground water contamination by pesticides in california: phase ii – evaluation and modification of a statistical model

A well sampling study was conducted to evaluate anempirical approach to classifying areasof land in California as vulnerable to ground watercontamination by pesticides (Troiano et al., 1994). Wells were sampled from sections of land that had noprevious detections of pesticideresidues. The sections had been classified into vulnerablesoil clusters or into a not-classified groupusing a procedure based on Principal Components Analysis(PCA). Grape, citrus, and olive growingareas of Fresno and Tulare Counties were targeted, areas wherepre-emergence herbicide residues hadbeen detected in well water. Overall, herbicide residues weredetected in 75 of 176 sampled wells, ahigh frequency of detection in relation to results fromprevious targeted well sampling studies. Sinceresidues were also detected in the not-classified group, theclassification procedure was modified usingan approach based on Canonical Variates Analysis (CVA). Moresections were classified intovulnerable soil clusters with the CVA approach than with thePCA method. Data from two otherexplanatory variables, depth to ground water and amount ofpesticide used per section, were includedto illustrate how additional information can be incorporatedinto this approach of identifying vulnerable areas.     

Study of Meteorological Aspects and Urban Concentration of SO2 in Atmospheric Environment of La Plata, Argentina

This article presents and discusses SO₂ (ppbv) concentration measurements combined with meteorological data (mainly wind speed and direction) for a five-year campaign (1996 to 2000), in a site near an oil refinery plant close to the city of La Plata and surroundings (aprox. 740.000 inh.), considered one of the six most affected cities by air pollution in the country. Since there is no monitoring network in the area, the obtained results should be considered as medium term accumulated data that enables to determine trends by analyzing together gas concentrations and meteorological parameters. Preliminary characterization of the behaviour of the predominant winds of the region in relation with potential atmospheric gas pollutants from seasonal wind roses is possible to carry out from the data. These results are complemented with monthly averaged SO₂ measurements. In particular, for year 2000, pollutant roses were determined which enable predictions about contamination emission sources. As a general result we can state that there is a clear increase in annual SO₂ concentration and that the selected site should be considered as a key site for future survey monitoring network deployment. Annual SO₂ average concentration and prevailing seasonal winds determined in this work, together with the potential health impact of SO₂ reveals the need for a comprehensive and systematic study involving particulate matter an other basic pollutant gases.