社会主义市场经济体制下的区域规划

建立社会主义市场经济体制，就是要使市场在国家宏观调控下对资源配置起基础性作用。经济体制的改革对区域规划提出了新的要求．它决不意味着取消或削弱区域规划，而是要更好地发挥区域规划在发展区域经济中的宏观调控作用。区域规划是区域经济发展的超前研究，其价值在于具有比较准确的发展预见性，能够提出正确的发展方向和战略。区域规划的核心内容是指导资源优化配置，但它并不具有直接的资源流动机制，只能作为资源流动的信息机制。区域规划发挥宏观调控作用的必要条件是政府立法，公益性设施列入国家或地方的计划，在实施中争取社会舆论和社会投资的支持，对经济落后区域的开发采取国家扶持的政策。     

跨世纪人口压力对中国生态环境的影响及对策

人口是人口，资源与环境系统中最根本的主导因素，人口增长过快，将直接加大对资源与环境的压力，并影响人口素质的提高，根据我国人口庞大的基数，过快的增长速度，独特的人口结构和较低的文化素质现状，对生态环境造成的压力进行了系统分析，进而提出了控制人口增长，改善生态环境和全面发展国发经济的对策，以保证跨世纪人口，资源，环境呈现协调，持续，健康的发展趋势。     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

MEETING FUTURE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY NEEDS: A SOUTHWEST PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Most southwestern cities were founded along rivers or in areas having springs or readily available ground water. Because of the generally sparse precipitation, the renewable fresh water supply in the Southwest is smaller than most other areas of the United States. Despite the arid climate, water use has increased rapidly, first in the form of irrigation, and more recently the use in cities. This has caused extensive development of local water resources and overdraft of ground water basins in some areas. It is difficult to implement new local supplies and importation projects due to a myriad of environmental and legal constraints and a general shortage of public funds. Various opportunities and plans for water management, both on the demand and supply sides, are discussed. Evolving water strategies in four metropolitan areas - El Paso, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, and Phoenix - and issues regarding the Central Arizona Project are presented.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

FLOW DURATION CURVES II: A REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A streamflow duration curve illustrates the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of streamflow. Flow duration curves have a long history in the field of water-resource engineering and have been used to solve problems in water-quality management, hydropower, instream flow methodologies, water-use planning, flood control, and river and reservoir sedimentation, and for scientific comparisons of streamflow characteristics across watersheds. This paper reviews traditional applications and provides extensions to some new applications, including water allocation, wasteload allocation, river and wetland inundation mapping, and the economic selection of a water-resource project.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Protection policy for Hawaii's native wildlife during geothermal energy development

Hawaii possesses abundant geothermal resources and rare native wildlife. Geothermal energy development has not posed a threat to native wildlife in the past, but development potential has recently reached a level at which concern for native wildlife is warranted.Potential geothermal resource areas in Hawaii intersect important native forest and endangered species habitat. The ability of existing laws to constrain development in these areas is in question. State and federal endangered species and environmental reporting laws have little ability to constrain geothermal development on private land. Hawaii's Land Use Law had been viewed by conservationists as protecting natural areas important to native wildlife, but recent decisions of the state Land Board sharply challenge this view.While this dispute was being resolved in the courts, the state legislature passed the Geothermal Subzone Act of 1983. Wildlife value was assessed in the geothermal subzone designation process mandated by this act, but the subzones designated primarily reflected inappropriate developer influence. All areas in which there was developer interest received subzone designation, and no area in which there was no developer interest was subzoned. This overriding emphasis on developer interest violated the intent of the sub-zone act, and trivialized the importance of other assessment criteria, among them native wildlife values.     

APPLICATION OF A LOW-FLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The application of a low-flow assessment model is illustrated for the Monogahela River Basin. The model simulates the impact of reservoir operating rules and consumptive use limitation policies on low-flow frequency at downstream locations in the basin. Policies are evaluated using an observed flow sequence and synthetic flow inputs. The paper reviews the historical development of flow management on the Monogahela to provide background for the current study.