MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

Potential coastal impacts of contemporary changing climate on South Asian seas states

The threat of man-induced global change on the nations of the South Asian seas region varies from place to place because of differences in exposure to monsoons and stoms, differences in local tectonics and subsidence, and variations in air and sea climates. Because several nations are involved, some having subsistence budgets, and given the cost of deriving independently a comprehensive response to global change, the similarities and differences between national settings must be identified soon. These comparisons will form the basis for local response strategies: the similarities provide a basis for responses similar to that of other nations and the differences provide for local adaptation. That climate change on the South Asian coastal region will have an impact is certain: its economics, environment, and coastal land uses are dominated to a certain extent by this marine influence. The extent of these impacts, however, is uncertain. Accompanying global change will be changes in sea level, differences in storm climate, and altered precipitation patterns; science cannot define today what pattern these changes will take. Because global change is inevitable—although its magnitude, timing, and geographic distribution are unknown—the South Asian seas region should begin the appropriate research and planning studies to set forth a reasoned response to global change, for implementation when scientific evidence for global change is more quantitative.     

能见度的降低与大气污染的关系

根据重庆十年能见度及气象数据和大气监测数据,作出了不同风向上能见度玫瑰图和多元回归模型.结果显示,水平能见度距离的降低,主要是空气污染引起的.     

噪声源声功率级的半消声室测量方法研究

噪声源声功率级半消声室测量方法已有相应的测量标准，但近年来的研究表明，它是不完善的。本文在半消声室纯音声场研究基础上，探讨了声波干涉对声功率级测量的影响。介绍了利用宽频标准噪声源进行的半消声室与消声室以及声源高度变化时的对比测量。研究结论对于完善测量标准，指导实际测量工作有一定意义。     

光照、温度和营养盐对滇池微囊藻生长的影响

研究了光照、温度与营养盐对滇地铜绿微囊藻（Ｍｉｃｒｏｃｙｓｔｉｓａｅｒｕｇｉｎｏｓａ）生长的影响。实验表明，在５００～５０００ｌｘ光强范围内，随光强增加，比增殖速率加大；在２２～３５℃区间内，比增殖速率随温度的升高而增加，且温度的影响大于光照；氮磷比（Ｎ／Ｐ）值在５～１０范围内，比增殖速率变化较大，Ｎ／Ｐ值为１４．５时，比增殖速率达最大值。滇池湖水的氮磷比值为１４．４左右，与实验值相接近。根据实验结果及限制因子的定义，总体上讲，滇池中磷是藻类生长的主要限制因子，控制滇池富营养化应以控制磷为主。     

Lead levels in Chromolaena odorata (Compositae) along rural and urban roads in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＣｈｒｏｍｏｌａｅｎａｏｄｏｒａｔａ（Ｅｕｐａｔｏｒｉｕｍｏｄｏｒａｔｕｍ），ｃｏｍｍｏｎｌｙｃａｌｌｅｄ“ｓｉａｍｗｅｅｄ”ｗａｓｉｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｅｄｉｎｔｏＮｉｇｅｒｉａａｂｏｕｔ３０ｙｅａｒｓａｇｏ．Ｉｔｉｓａｓｔｒｏｎｇｌｙｓｃｅｎｔｅｄ，ｄｉｆｆｕｓｅ，ａｎｄｒａｐｉｄｌｙｇｒｏｗｉｎｇｈｅｒｂｔｈａｔｃａｎａｔｔａｉｎａｈｅｉｇｈｔｏｆ３－０ｍｅｔｅｒｓｏｒｍｏｒｅ．Ｉｔｉｓｌｏｃａｌｌｙｃａｌｌｅｄ“ｏｗｏｔｏｗｏ”ｂｅｃａｕｓｅａｔｉｔｓｄｅｂｕｔｉｔｗａ…     

膜生物反应器高度净化有机物的特性

分别采用膜生物反应器(MBR)和普通生物反应器(CSTR)对苯胺废水进行处理，结果表明MBR处理效果优于CSTR，处理水苯胺浓度接近动力学极限浓度。测定了两种反应器中微生物的最大比基质利用速率qmax分别为2．084d^-1和1．650d^-1，亲和常数Ks值分别为0．237mg／L和0．309mg／L。间歇试验证明MBR能富集培养基质亲和性高的专一性微生物。这类微生物降解速率不随基质浓度而变化，且能更彻底地降解有机物，适用于微量有机物的高度净化。     

有机氯农药在南京市郊蔬菜中的生物富集与质量安全

用气相色谱．电子捕获检测器(GC-ECD)测定南京市郊蔬菜中的有机氯农药残留．结果表明，12种有机氯农药在所有的供试蔬菜中均有检出，DDT和HCH在各蔬菜中的含量较高，分别占有机氯农药总残留量的49．5％～75．0％和13．9％～28．2％．Wα-HCH／Wγ-HCH和WDDE／WDDT的比值在各蔬菜体内均小于或等于1，说明这些蔬菜生长的环境中可能有新的有机氯污染物的输入．各种蔬菜对有机氯农药总量的富集因子为0．41～0．78．富集能力最大的为胡萝卜，蒜苗和菠菜．HCH类农药在各种蔬菜体内的生物富集因子(0．70～1．10)要高于DDT类(0．28～0．80)．胡萝卜对HCH和DDT等有机氯农药的富集能力较强，而莴苣、蒜苗和菠菜对六氯苯、狄氏剂，异狄氏剂和硫丹有较高的生物富集能力．虽然各种蔬菜体内有机氯农药的残留量低于国家最大残留限量，但其检出率仍为100％，仍然对农产品质量安全和人类健康造成潜在的威胁．关键词：有机氯农药；蔬菜；残留量；生物富集；人类健康     

储罐液位灾害及其关键液位确定方法研究

储罐关键液位的确定在储罐液位灾害防护系统中起着至关重要的作用,是构建储罐液位灾害防护系统的重要步骤之一。现阶段的储罐灾害分析均偏向于高液位灾害分析,且国内外有关储罐液位的条例规范也较为模糊笼统,仅给出了关键高液位的计算公式与储罐低液位的概念和粗略定值。因此在给出确定响应时间方法的同时,参照API-STD-2350—2012中给出的储罐关键高液位计算公式,结合我国生产实践中储罐运行的实际情况与储罐低液位灾害的具体情况,对原有的3个储罐关键高液位计算公式进行修正,并在其基础上定义了储罐高液位联锁触发液位,给出了该液位与储罐关键低液位的计算公式。     

Carbonaceous matter in glacier at the headwaters of the Yangtze River: Concentration, sources and fractionation during the melting process

Carbonaceous matter has an important impact on glacial retreat in the Tibetan Plateau, further affecting the water resource supply. However, the related studies on carbonaceous matter are still scarce in Geladaindong (GLDD) region, the source of the Yangtze River. Therefore, the concentration, source and variations of carbonaceous matter at Ganglongjiama (GLJM) glacier in GLDD region were investigated during the melting period in 2017, which could deepen our understanding on carbonaceous matter contribution to glacier melting. The results showed that dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration of snowpit samples (283?±?200?μg/L) was much lower than that of precipitation samples (624?±?361?μg/L), indicating that large parts of DOC could be rapidly leached from the snowpit during the melting process. In contrast, refractory black carbon (rBC) concentration measured by Single Particle Soot Photometer of snowpit samples (4.27?±?3.15?μg/L) was much higher than that of precipitation samples (0.97?±?0.49?μg/L). Similarly, DOC with high mass absorption cross-section measured at 365?nm value was also likely to enrich in snowpit during the melting process. In addition, it was found that both rBC and DOC with high light-absorbing ability began to leach from the snowpit when melting process became stronger. Therefore, rBC and DOC with high light-absorbing ability exhibited similar behavior during the melting process. Based on relationship among DOC, rBC and K⁺ in precipitation, the main source of carbonaceous matter in GLJM glacier was biomass burning during the study period.