苏州城市化进程对降雨特征影响分析

城市化的发展过程中,城市下垫面的改变以及人类的生产生活共同作用使大气边界层的特性发生变化,从而影响了城市地区的降雨。位于太湖流域平原水网地区的苏州城市化发展迅速。在分析了苏州城市化发展进程的特点及1953~2000年降雨时间序列特征基础上,采用同时期城区（苏州站）与郊区（望亭站）雨量横向对比、城市化发展不同时期同一站雨量纵向对比的方法,研究了城市化对该地区降雨量、降雨年内分配、降雨发生次数等的影响。通过研究发现：城市化对年雨量、汛期雨量和最大日雨量都有不同程度的增加作用,其中对最大日雨量的影响最显著;受城市化影响,降雨年内分配有集中的趋势;城市化使不同类型降雨发生次数均增加,其中对暴雨发生次数的影响最大。     

交通事故现场物证点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法

为了研究满足交通事故现场记录图的技术性、证据性要求的交通事故现场测绘方 法,针对现有现场图定位方法的不足,重点从交通事故证据审查的视角,提出物证定位 观点,分析其技术构成并构建内容体系;在此基础上,依据技术标准基本要求,运用平面 坐标定位原理,以交通事故现场物证定位思想为基础,研究开发交通事故现场点线系列 直角坐标测绘定位方法及其具体应用技术。研究表明:物证定位是能够将现场元素定位 和现场道路定位协同考虑的一种交通事故现场物证固定技术,以其基本思想与原理可以 开发交通事故现场点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法;该方法有多种变换方法可适用不同 情况的交通事故现场测绘;应用该方法绘制的现场记录图,可以满足现场记录图技术性 及证据性的双重要求。     

呼伦湖水面动态变化遥感监测及气候因素驱动分析

利用长时间序列的MODIS数据,采用水体指数动态分析的方法,对2000~2013年呼伦湖的水体面积进行了动态变化分析,并结合区域气候数据进行了驱动力分析.结果表明:2000~2012年期间,呼伦湖流域水体面积从2286km²减少至1773km²,减少22.4%,主要减少部分分布在湖体东北部和南部;2013年水体面积尤其是南部水域水体面积略有所恢复.呼伦湖主体湖区面积的变化与年均温呈现不显著的负相关关系.     

API Standard 521 new alternative method to evaluate fire relief for pressure relief device sizing and depressuring system design

Since the 1950's, API Standards have provided guidance on determining relief loads for equipment exposed to pool fires. The API method is empirical based on tests performed in the 1940's. There is increasingly widespread interest in analytical methods based on heat transfer principles to model fire heat input. The API committee agreed to include an analytical method in the 6th edition of API Standard 521 to establish relief loads for pressure relief devices and to design depressuring systems for the fire scenario. The analytical method provides more flexibility than the empirical method but has limitations (e.g., too many permutations are possible leading to potential under-sizing of the pressure relief device).This paper discusses the basis for the empirical method in API Standard 521 and provides comparisons of the empirical and analytical method with two more recent large-scale pool fire tests. This pool fire test data indicates that the empirical method will provide a conservative estimate of pool fire heat input for most applications and is still the method of choice when designing pressure relief systems. However, these recent tests indicate the empirical method needs to be modified when a vessel or equipment is partially confined by adjacent embankments or walls equal or greater than the vessel height. In such cases, the wetted area exponent should be 1.0 instead of 0.82.The analytical method is useful in determining time-versus-temperature profiles for heating unwetted vessels of varying wall thicknesses and materials of construction. These profiles, which depend upon the type of fire (e.g., unconfined pool fire, jet fire, etc.), can be combined with tensile strength and stress-rupture data to specify a depressuring system's pressure-versus-time profile. This will minimize failure and/or mitigate the effects of failure due to overheating from fire exposure.     

煤矿瓦斯涌出时序预测的自组织数据挖掘方法

为分析煤矿瓦斯涌出复杂系统时间序列预测方法,提出自组织数据挖掘(SODM)与相空间重构(PSR)相结合的预测建模方法。首先应用C-C方法计算时间序列的最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间后进行PSR;然后以二元二次方程为传递函数,以嵌入维数变量为自变量,以延迟时间后的时间序列为因变量,通过内准则确定传递函数系数和外准则选择最优传递函数,并以最优传递函数的输出为下层迭代传递函数的输入,最后获得最优复杂度预测模型。算例结果表明:该方法对煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测的相对误差为-5.751 7% ~6.049 3%,平均相对误差2.145 7%,预测结果能满足煤矿安全生产实际工程应用要求。     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

低噪声降频器可靠性试验设计

可靠性技术是提高产品质量的有效手段,具有广阔的应用前景。本文结合可靠性技术对低噪声降频器进行可靠性试验并对故障数据进行分析,结果表明,抽取的高频头样品合格率达96.25%,平均无故障时间超过5000小时。     

PM_(10)浓度时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波方法

文章利用Morlet小波函数进行小波变换,以乌鲁木齐市的大气污染物时间序列为例,分析了当地PM10的多时间尺度的演变特性。研究结果显示,其年际变化和季节性变化的时间尺度在尺度空间中分布不均匀,受气象和污染源因素影响,具有较明显的局部化特征。     

Real Time PCR研究进展及其在海洋病原生物检测中的应用

Real Time PCR,即实时监测PCR扩增产物并进行解析的方法,目前已广泛应用于分子生物学研究的各个领域.Real Time PCR技术秉承及发展了普通PCR的快速、高灵敏度检出等优点,同时克服了普通PCR不能准确定量、容易污染等缺点,无需在反应结束后通过电泳操作确认扩增产物.目前,Real Time PCR可设计多对引物在同一反应体系中同时对多个靶基因进行扩增,实现多莺实时定量检测.Real Time PCR使PCR技术发生了质的飞跃,扩展了PCR技术的应用范畴,是一种具有划时代意义的技术.本文主要介绍Real Time PCR的主要原理、解析方法、技术发展趋势及其在海洋病原生物检测方面的应用.