潞安集团煤油循环经济园区的探索与实践

山西潞安集团充分发挥自身煤炭资源和区位发展优势，以煤的深度转化为主线，着力探索实践煤基合成油项目，延伸发展煤基多联产产业化，产出了煤基合成油，建成了煤油循环经济园区，走出一条“高碳能源，低碳利用”的循环经济之路。对潞安集团煤油循环经济园区进行全面的研究和介绍，以期为煤炭工业可持续发展提供一种全新的视角和思路。     

Biomagnification of anthropogenic and naturally-produced organobrominated compounds in a marine food web from Sydney Harbour, Australia

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and naturally-produced organobrominated compounds, such as methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs), have been scarcely studied in the Southern Hemisphere. Yet, sources of the latter group of compounds were found in Southern regions, specifically in Australia. The environmental distribution and biomagnification potential of organobrominated compounds were therefore investigated in a representative aquatic food chain (invertebrates and fish) from the Sydney Harbour, Australia. Mean PBDE concentrations ranged from 6.4 ng/g lipid weight (lw) in squid to 115 ng/g lw in flounder. BDE 47 was the dominant congener, followed by BDE 100. Mean levels of MeO-PBDEs (sum of congeners 2’-MeO-BDE 68 and 6-MeO-BDE 47) were as high as 110 ng/g lw in tailor, with a slight dominance of 2’-MeO-BDE 68. Polybrominated hexahydroxanthene derivates (PBHDs), another class of naturally-produced compounds, were found at variable concentrations and ranged from 4.7 ng/g lw in fanbelly and 146 ng/g lw in tailor. The tribrominated PBHD isomer dominated in the samples, except for luderick and squid. The lower levels of PBDEs found in luderick from the harbour compared to those obtained from the upper Parramatta River indicated a terrestrial (anthropogenic) origin of PBDEs, while the higher levels of MeO-PBDEs and PBHDs in the samples from the harbour confirmed the marine (natural) origin of these compounds. The highest trophic magnification factor (TMF) was found for sum PBDEs (3.9), while TMFs for sum MeO-PBDEs and sum PBHDs were 2.9 and 3.4, respectively. This suggests that biomagnification occurs in the studied aquatic food chain for anthropogenic brominated compounds, but also for the naturally-produced organobromines.     

Use of Market Data to Assess Bushmeat Hunting Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Abstract: Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less‐accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market‐based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.     

Evaluation of food chain transfer of the antibiotic oxytetracycline and human risk assessment

There has been recent concern regarding the possibility of antibiotics entering the aquatic food chain and impacting human consumers. This work reports experimental results of the bioconcentration of the antibiotic oxytetracycline (OTC) by the Asian watermeal plant (Wolffia globosa Hartog & Plas) and bioaccumulation of OTC in watermeal and water by the seven-striped carp (Probarbus jullieni). They show, for the first time, the extent to which OTC is able to transfer from water to plant to fish and enter the food chain. The mean bioconcentration factor (dry weight basis) with watermeal was 1.28 × 10³ L kg⁻¹. Separate experiments were undertaken to characterize accumulation of OTC by carp from water and watermeal. These showed the latter pathway to be dominant under the conditions employed. The bioconcentration and biomagnification factors for these processes were 1.75 L kg⁻¹ and 2 × 10⁻⁴ kg g⁻¹ respectively. Using an aqueous concentration range of 0.34–3.0 μg L⁻¹, hazard quotients for human consumption of contaminated fish of 1.3 × 10⁻² to 1.15 × 10⁻¹ were derived.     

Impact of right-of-way construction on vegetation in the Red Lake Peatland,northern Minnesota

During the winters of 1978–79 and 1979–80, a 500-kV electrical transmission right-of-way (r-o-w) was constructed across the Red Lake Peatland in northwestern Minnesota, the largest contiguous peatland in the lower 48 states of the USA. Immediately before, and for two years following construction, vascular vegetation was monitored within the r-o-w and in undisturbed control areas. Monitoring was carried out in five vegetation types: a thicket swamp, a low shrub bog, a graminoid fen, a treed bog, and a treed fen. Evaluation of construction impacts was based on vegetation structure, irrespective of species composition, and on community composition (species data for low shrubs and herbs). Construction eliminated trees from the r-o-w. Vegetation structure, excluding trees, was markedly altered in the two bog types and the treed fen type in the first postconstruction growing season. By the second season, measurable recovery to control levels had begun. The sample plots were placed into a previously developed vegetation classification system for the Red Lake Peatland, on the basis of herbs and low shrubs. There was a shift in composition in the low shrub bog and in the treed vegetation types following construction. Results of both methods of data analysis were consistent. Major vegetation changes following construction occurred in the low shrub bog and treed types. The open, low-stature fen types showed almost no changes related to construction. Even in the affected types, all vegetation strata except trees were returning to their preconstruction status by the second growing season following construction.     

都西庙水库生物群落的牧食链结构与渔业利用

都西庙水库初级生产者只有浮游植物,它对太阳能年总辐射量的利用率为0.07%,生态学效率分别为10.5%、0.26%、6.40%,综合鱼产力为17.8g/m~2,各种经济鱼类对浮游植物的能量利用率为0.55%,表明牧食链中能量流动与分配不合理。本文对科学利用和保护该库饵料资源提出了建议。     

论事故与系统危险性的关系

对安全评价中的一些基本概念和参数作了明确的论述,如危险、事故、系统危险性、事故链、固有危险和危险特性、发生事故的难易度与事故概率以及系统可靠度。对澄清当前尚有争论的概念有所帮助,有利于安全评价的顺利进行,也有利于安全科学学科建设。最后对系统危险性的发展趋势作了几点预测。     

船舶安全熵概念的提出及应用

船舶航行安全很大程度上取决于操作者对船舶航行过程中各种信息的把握,信息掌握的多少可作为衡量船舶安全的一个标准。把船舶航行链分为5种信息处理过程,利用信息熵的原理,提出船舶安全熵的概念,并建立了数学模型。根据船舶航行信息过程的具体因素,建立船舶航行安全评价指标体系;利用熵权法确定5种信息单元及其安全因素权重,对船舶航行的安全熵进行计算,可根据评价模型对船舶安全进行有效评价。利用渤海湾船舶M进行验证,其结果发现船员素质安全熵最大。船舶安全熵方法是对船舶安全评估的一种新探索。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.