Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

基于浓度敏感性分析和遗传算法的甲烷燃烧机理简化与优化

采用良搅拌反应器模型和层流预混火焰模型计算甲烷/空气燃烧过程,通过元素流通法和浓度敏感性分析法,对甲烷燃烧详细化学动力学机理GRIMECH 3.0进行简化。利用遗传算法,以甲烷/空气详细机理获得的组分浓度和一维层流火焰速度为目标,对简化机理进行优化。结果表明,相比于优化之前的简化机理,优化后的简化机理在描述甲烷/空气燃烧反应的组分浓度、层流火焰速度以及反应物和产物的时空分布方面,具有更高的精度。     

Least-inference methods for constructing networks of trophic flows

The construction of material and energy budgets within ecosystems has long been accomplished via manual calculation. Recently, optimization techniques have been adapted to automate the procedure, but these methods require assumptions that may not square with biological reality. Two algorithms are developed to construct ecosystem budgets under minimal inference. Although the methods do not recapitulate the model used to generate the input data, analysis reveals that the results do not differ statistically from networks that were constructed manually.     

基于遗传算法的PLS分析在QSAR研究中的应用

将遗传算法和偏最小二乘法结合应用于定量结构活性关系研究中 ,进行变量选择和建立最终模型 .以较少的变量个数包含较多的变量信息 ,且变量间没有线性相关问题 ,因而得到较好的 QSAR模型 .将这种方法应用于氯代酚和单取代苯 2种系列化合物 ,可以得到几种常规多元回归分析方法不能得到的质量较高的 QSAR模型 .     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING AND ITS APPLICATION IN REAL‐TIME RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary technique, is demonstrated in this study to evolve codes for the solution of problems. First, a simple example in the area of symbolic regression is considered. GP is then applied to real‐time runoff forecasting for the Orgeval catchment in France. In this study, GP functions as an error updating scheme to complement a rainfall‐runoff model, MIKE11/NAM. Hourly runoff forecasts of different updating intervals are performed for forecast horizons of up to nine hours. The results show that the proposed updating scheme is able to predict the runoff quite accurately for all updating intervals considered and particularly for updating intervals not exceeding the time of concentration of the catchment. The results are also compared with those of an earlier study, by the World Meteorological Organization, in which autoregression and Kalman filter were used as the updating methods. Comparisons show that GP is a better updating tool for real‐time flow forecasting. Another important finding from this study is that nondimensionalizing the variables enhances the symbolic regression process significantly.     

改进遗传神经网络方法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

运用双极性压缩函数适应度定标和基于排挤方法的选择算子改进标准遗传算法(SGA),使其成为简单通用、快速收敛的并行全局搜索算法。利用该算法优化误差反向传播网络(BPN),克服了BPN收敛慢和不具有全局收敛性的缺陷,在此基础上,建立大气环境质量评价模型,并将该模型用于实例。结果表明,该方法用于大气环境质量评价是可行的。      

基于优化算法的弹药贮存寿命预测方法

目的 实现对缺失及不足的制导弹药贮存失效数据预测及补充的能力。方法 首先通过4种不同的预测算法（GA-BP、PSO-BP、GA-SVM、PSO-SVM）,对自然贮存条件下弹药贮存失效数据进行预测,其次根据最小二乘拟合法,实现弹药贮存寿命评估模型的构建,再通过寿命评估模型,计算出不同方法下对应的贮存寿命。结果 通过不同模型的构建,4种预测方法与无优化条件下均能实现弹药贮存失效数据的预测,并且在规定可靠度,GA-BP和PSO-BP预测精度比另外2种方法更低。结论 GA-SVM与PSO-SVM更适合弹药贮存失效数据的预测,且效果更好。     

变尺度混沌-遗传算法在复杂河流水质模型参数优化中的应用

将变尺度混沌-遗传算法(MSCGA)应用于复杂河流水质模型参数优化.采用湘江衡阳段水质监测资料,以二维河流水质数学模型反演结果的均方误差为适应度函数,估计横向扩散系数Dx、纵向弥散系数Dy和污染物衰减系数κ.数值实验结果表明,MSCGA寻优过程具有明显的分级特征,级级收敛;在同样的条件下,MSCGA的收敛速度较快,为遗传算法(GA)的1.36倍;同时,MSCGA克服了GA早熟收敛的问题,其最优适应度函数值为7.6×10-4,而GA的最优适应度函数值9.6×10-4.将MSCGA应用于研究河段,求得Dx、Dy分别为0.1335、0.0011,BOD5、As、Cr的衰减系数κ分别为0.0229、0.0100、0.0107.     

A genetic algorithm based stochastic programming model for air quality management

This paper presents a model that can aid planners in defining the total allowable pollutant discharge in the planning region,accounting for the dynamic and stochastic character of meteorological conditions.This is accomplished by integrating Monte Carlo simulation and using genetic algorithm to solve the model.The model is demonstrated by using a realistic air urban-scale SO2 control problem in the Yuxi City of China.To evaluate effectiveness of the model,results of the approach are shown to compare with those of the linear deterministic procedures. This paper also provides a valuable insight into how air quality targets should be made when the air pollutant will not threat the residents‘ health.Finally,a discussion of the areas for further research are briefly delineated.     

Toxicological mass disaster management - a hospital deployment scheme

Toxicological mass disasters have occurred frequently in past years and constitute a permanent threat in urban areas. From the standpoint of hospital planning, special consideration is required to treat a large number of poisoned casualties in a relatively short period. Several unique medical aspects characterize toxicological mass disasters: casualties present a single disease entity with many "borderline" cases, most medical personnel are unfamiliar with the problem and casualties present a potential contamination hazard to the hospital. A hospital deployment scheme is presented recommending Decontamination, Triage and simple Treatment Algorithms to meet the medical and organizational challenge of such a mass casualty situation. A further specific deployment scheme for treatment of organophosphorus agents poisoning is described to illustrate the principles presented.