美国地震风险评估中建筑物易损性与损失组合的探讨

探讨了以美国地震灾害风险评估模型为例的建筑物易损性模型的建立方法及地震随机事件损失组合的方法.由于应用对象的不同,如用于工程项目风险的评估或是对保险资产风险的评估,其易损性模型建立的方式具有较大的差异.在工程应用中,注重对建筑结构的分析,往往使用非线性解析方法如能力频谱法等以得到结构的易损性或脆弱曲线;而保险行业常用历史数据并运用统计方法等获取所需的易损性曲线.由于工程应用的易损性曲线有更好的精准性,越来越多保险用模型采用此方法.此外,工程应用常对单一地震事件进行评估,而保险行业的模型往往涉及对大量随机事件的评估.对不同的建筑物易损性建模方法、规范标准及适用范围进行了探讨,并对随机事件损失组合方法中如何计算损失的单次超越概率(OEP)和累计超越概率(AEP)进行了介绍.     

Role of age and injury mechanism on cervical spine injury tolerance from head contact loading

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the influence of age and injury mechanism on cervical spine tolerance to injury from head contact loading using survival analysis.

Methods: This study analyzed data from previously conducted experiments using post mortem human subjects (PMHS). Group A tests used the upright intact head–cervical column experimental model. The inferior end of the specimen was fixed, the head was balanced by a mechanical system, and natural lordosis was removed. Specimens were placed on a testing device via a load cell. The piston applied loading at the vertex region. Spinal injuries were identified using medical images. Group B tests used the inverted head–cervical column experimental model. In one study, head–T1 specimens were fixed distally, and C7–T1 joints were oriented anteriorly, preserving lordosis. Torso mass of 16 kg was added to the specimen. In another inverted head–cervical column study, occiput–T2 columns were obtained, an artificial head was attached, T1–T2 was fixed, C4–C5 disc was maintained horizontal in the lordosis posture, and C7–T1 was unconstrained. The specimens were attached to the drop test carriage carrying a torso mass of 15 kg. A load cell at the inferior end measured neck loads in both studies. Axial neck force and age were used as the primary response variable and covariate to derive injury probability curves using survival analysis.

Results: Group A tests showed that age is a significant (P < .05) and negative covariate; that is, increasing age resulted in decreasing force for the same risk. Injuries were mainly vertebral body fractures and concentrated at one level, mid-to-lower cervical spine, and were attributed to compression-related mechanisms. However, age was not a significant covariate for the combined data from group B tests. Both group B tests produced many soft tissue injuries, at all levels, from C1 to T1. The injury mechanism was attributed to mainly extension. Multiple and noncontiguous injuries occurred. Injury probability curves, ±95% confidence intervals, and normalized confidence interval sizes representing the quality of the mean curve are given for different data sets.

Conclusions: For compression-related injuries, specimen age should be used as a covariate or individual specimen data may be prescaled to derive risk curves. For distraction- or extension-related injuries, however, specimen age need not be used as a covariate in the statistical analysis. The findings from these tests and survival analysis indicate that the age factor modulates human cervical spine tolerance to impact injury.     

Modelling agronomic properties of Technosols constructed with urban wastes

The greening of urban and suburban areas requires large amounts of arable earth that is a non-renewable resource. However, concentration of population in cities leads to the production of high amounts of wastes and by-products that are nowadays partly recycled as a resource and quite systematically exported out of urban areas. To preserve natural soil resources, a strategy of waste recycling as fertile substitutes is proposed. Eleven wastes are selected for their environmental harmlessness and their contrasted physico-chemical properties for their potential use in pedological engineering. The aim is (i) to demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation of fertile substrates exclusively with wastes and (ii) to model their physico-chemical properties following various types, number and proportions of constitutive wastes. Twenty-five binary and ternary combinations are tested at different ratios for total carbon, Olsen available phosphorus, cation exchange capacity, water pH, water retention capacity and bulk density. Dose–response curves describe the variation of physico-chemical properties of mixtures depending on the type and ratio of selected wastes. If these mixtures mainly mimic natural soils, some of them present more extreme urban soil features, especially for pH and P_Olsen. The fertility of the new substrates is modelled by multilinear regressions for the main soil properties.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for North and Northwest Florida Streams1

Abstract: Regional curves, which relate bankfull channel dimensions and discharge to watershed drainage area, are developed to aid in identifying the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds, and estimating the bankfull discharge and dimensions for river studies and natural channel design applications. This study assessed 26 stable stream reaches in two hydro‐physiographic regions of the Florida Coastal Plain: the Northwest Florida Coastal Plain (NWFCP) and the North Florida Coastal Plain (NFCP). Data from stream reaches in Georgia and Alabama were also used to develop the Florida regional curves, since they are located in the same hydro‐physiographic region. Reaches were selected based on the presence of U.S. Geological Survey gage stations and indicators of limited watershed development (e.g., <10% impervious surface). Analyses were conducted to determine bankfull channel dimensions, bankfull discharge, average channel slope, and Rosgen stream classification. Based on these data, significant relationships were found between bankfull cross‐sectional area, width, mean depth, and discharge as a function of drainage area for both regions. Data from this study suggested that bankfull discharges and channel dimensions were larger from NWFCP streams than from Coastal Plain streams in North Carolina and Maryland. Bankfull discharges were similar between NFCP and Georgia coastal plain streams; therefore, the data were combined into one regional curve. In addition, the data were stratified by Rosgen stream type. This stratification strengthened the relationships of bankfull width and mean depth as a function of drainage area.     

Early Responses to Acute Ozone Exposure in Two Fagus Sylvatica Clones Differing in Xeromorphic Adaptations: Photosynthetic and Stomatal Processes, Membrane and Epicuticular Characteristics

Two Fagus sylvatica L. clones were used to investigate the early responses to acute O₃ exposure (150 nL L⁻¹, i.e., 1.35× ambient hourly peak in rural Italy) and whether xeromorphic adaptations affect gas exchange, membrane, and epicuticular responses. One clone originated in a wet and temperate climate in Central Italy (Tuscany); the other clone originated in a warmer and drier climate in the southern-most part of the F. sylvatica distribution (Sicily). Because of higher base gas exchange rates, the most negative effects of O₃ exposure (gas exchange impairment, uncoupling between net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, increased membrane lipid peroxidation) were found in the southern clone. Xeromorphic adaptations (higher epicuticular waxes and stomatal density, lower leaf wettability and size) were found in this clone. Our results suggest that xeromorphism may increase O₃ sensitivity in species not adapted to face water stress, like the mesophilic F. sylvatica, when experiments are carried out with full irrigation. We present evidence describing the relationship between gas exchange and number and status of stomata. Stomatal density and the structural damage to stomata resulting from O₃ exposure did not affect gas exchange: In fact, non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis prevailed over stomatal limitations.     

Evaluation of groundwater flow patterns around a dual-screened groundwater circulation well

Dual-screened groundwater circulation wells (GCWs) can be used to remove contaminant mass and to mix reagents in situ. GCWs are so named because they force water in a circular pattern between injection and extraction screens. The radial extent, flux and direction of the effective flow of this circulation cell are difficult to measure or predict. The objective of this study is to develop a robust protocol for assessing GCW performance. To accomplish this, groundwater flow patterns surrounding a GCW are assessed using a suite of tools and data, including: hydraulic head, in situ flow velocity, measured hydraulic conductivity data from core samples, chemical tracer tests, contaminant distribution data, and numerical flow and transport models. The hydraulic head data show patterns that are consistent with pumping on a dual-screened well, however, many of the observed changes are smaller than expected. In situ thermal perturbation flow sensors successfully measured horizontal flow, but vertical flow could not be determined with sufficient accuracy to be useful in mapping flow patterns. Two types of chemical tracer tests were utilized at the site and showed that much of the flow occurs within a few meters of the GCW. Flow patterns were also assessed based on changes in contaminant (trichloroethylene, TCE) concentrations over time. The TCE data clearly showed treated water moving away from the GCW at shallow and intermediate depths, but the circulation of that water back to the well, except very close to the well, was less clear. Detailed vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivities were measured on 0.3 m-long sections from a continuous core from the GCW installation borehole. The measured vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivity data were used to construct numerical flow and transport models, the results of which were compared to the head, velocity and concentration data. Taken together, the field data and modeling present a fairly consistent picture of flow and transport around the GCW. However, the time and expense associated with conducting all of those tests would be prohibitive for most sites. As a consequence, a sequential protocol for GCW characterization is presented here in which the number of tools used can be adjusted to meet the needs of individual sites. While not perfect, we believe that this approach represents the most efficient means for evaluating GCW performance.