People's risk perception of glacial lake outburst flooding: a case of Tsho Rolpa Lake,Nepal

Previous research indicates that people's perception of risk from a particular hazard positively influences their adoption of effective mitigation strategies and responses. This research investigates the risk perceptions of people living downstream from Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake of Nepal. Field surveys revealed that people living beneath the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake possess a low risk perception despite the probability of a glacial lake outburst at their location. Further investigation reveals that many individuals have made no adjustments in response to the potential disaster. The low risk perception on the part of the riverine population is chiefly attributed to the cry-wolf effect of the 1997 evacuation that followed an inaccurate prediction of a Tsho Rolpa outburst. Previous remediation structures were kept in place, but appear to have created a false sense of security among those at risk. This overconfidence in the rudimentary efforts employed thus far is illustrated by the fact that many residents have moved their infrastructure even closer to the river channel in recent years. Partial mitigation efforts have muted people's perceptions of the environmental risk and have therefore increased the vulnerability of the communities to a probable outburst flood.     

典型冰川退缩区铅的来源、累积及历史沉降——以青藏高原海螺沟冰川退缩区为例

为探究青藏高原东部陆地生态系统中铅的来源、累积分配过程及百年来大气铅的沉降状况，以贡嘎山海螺沟冰川退缩区为对象，利用冰川退缩区样地年龄可确定的优势，对160年来完整的植被演替序列进行了系统研究.采用电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS）测定了土壤和植物样品中的铅以及其他微量元素的含量，明确了铅在该地区生态系统中的含量和储量变化格局，并采用主成分分析（PCA）解析了土壤铅的潜在来源，评估了历史沉降铅的累积速率.结果表明，森林有机土壤是大气铅的重要汇集区域.大气沉降的铅主要累积于O层中，而C层土壤铅含量相对较低；植物地上部以树枝和树皮铅含量最高，树干铅含量最低.植被序列中不同树种的铅储量变化趋势和植被演替趋势成正相关.在植被生长期，铅储量因生物量增加而不断升高，而随着演替过程中植被的死亡而降低.整个演替系统铅的储量随冰川退缩时间显著增加，至1936年样地的云冷杉顶极群落达到最大值.PCA源解析表明有机土壤中57%左右的铅来自于人为来源铅的大气沉降过程，即外源污染的大气沉降是贡嘎山中铅的主要来源.进一步分析表明，中国西南地区和南亚地区（印度、孟加拉国等）是主要的污染潜在源区.在百年尺度上，大气来源沉降铅在冰川退缩区的平均累积速率为（8.87±3.55） mg/（m²·a）.此研究为探究铅在陆地生态系统中的来源、分配及累积，理解未来全球变化对铅的环境地球化学过程影响提供了经典范例与数据依据.     

帕米尔高原冰川流域碎屑颗粒的铀同位素组成及其对沉积物搬运的指示

铀(U)同位素作为一种新的地球化学示踪手段,被逐渐用于研究陆地和海洋沉积物的搬运过程。然而,这一新技术能否有效指示不同环境中各类沉积物的搬运还需更多流域数据的支持。本文选取位于帕米尔高原东北部具有显著海拔梯度和气候差异的盖孜河冰川流域作为研究对象,通过该流域河流沉积物细颗粒中的U同位素的活度比((~(234)U/~(238)U)_(AR))的空间变化,探索U同位素指示内陆冰川流域沉积物搬运的可行性。流域内河流沉积物的矿物组成以石英和长石(占51%—77%)为主,表明较弱的风化作用。流域内受冰川侵蚀控制的上游山区支流康西瓦河和木吉河沉积物的(~(234)U/~(238)U)_(AR)范围分别是0.990—1.017和0.988—1.009,盖孜河中下游段河流沉积物的(~(234)U/~(238)U)_(AR)则为0.913—0.997。从上游山区至中下游段显示了一个明显的下降趋势,指示了沉积物搬运过程中(~(234)U/~(238)U)_(AR)的确发生了系统的变化。然而,盖孜河流域碎屑颗粒比表面积和分形维数计算得到的反冲损失参数太低,未能利用U同位素破碎年龄模型获得合理的沉积物搬运时间,该模型如何用到冰川流域尚需更多的研究工作。     

继承性宇生核素在冰川地貌暴露测年中的研究进展

原地生成宇宙成因核素（in situ terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide,TCN）暴露测年技术已被广泛应用于全球冰川地貌的年代测定中。继承性核素（inheritance,核素残留）作为影响TCN暴露测年的重要因素之一,一直以来受到许多学者的关注。然而,继承性核素对暴露测年结果有无影响、影响程度有多大还存在争论。梳理该方面的研究将有助于进一步了解继承性宇生核素对TCN暴露测年的影响,进而提高测年的精确性。基于此,整理了2009—2017年共计54篇全球关于第四纪冰川宇生核素继承性文献,简述继承性核素的产生背景和研究进展,重点探讨核素残留对TCN暴露测年的影响程度以及在实际应用中如何降低其对测年数据的影响。结果表明：继承性核素会导致冰碛物出现异常老化和分散的暴露年龄,可通过选取合适的地貌部位及多样化的抽样和多样品方法,也可尝试采集现代冰川冰碛物定量化研究继承性核素的影响。     

1980-2007年喜马拉雅东段洛扎地区冰湖变化遥感研究

利用1980年地形图、1988/1990年Landsat TM、2000年Landsat ETM+、2007年ALOS AVNIR-2遥感资料和近42 a (1967-2008年)的气温、降水量资料对喜马拉雅东段洛扎地区的冰湖变化特征及其原因进行了研究。 结果表明:①1980年到2007年,53个冰湖(1980年面积大于0.02 km²)的总面积由1980年的9.97 km²增加至2007年的13.05 km²,增加了3.08 km²,增加的比例为30.9%。通过与非冰川补给湖的对比发现,1980年的冰湖面积比非冰川补给湖的面积大,分布的规模等级和海拔梯度更为广泛;1980-2007年冰湖面积扩张是非冰川补给湖面积扩张的102.7倍,远大于后者。可见,冰川补给对于冰湖的分布和变化有重要的影响。②1980-2007年,错那站的年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,与全球变暖的趋势一致;年降水量在波动变化中略有上升。温度升高引起的冰川融水的增加和降水的增加共同决定了研究区内冰湖面积的增长。本区冰川变化和冰湖变化主要是由温度升高引起的,但降水增加也有一定贡献。③对研究区2007年面积大于0.1 km²的32个可辨识冰湖的溃决危险性评价表明,错嘎龙浦、加朗卡、昂格错、白朗错几个冰湖的溃决危险程度最大。     

国内外冰川变化对水资源影响研究进展

冰川是重要的淡水资源,其变化不仅对高山及周边地区水资源有重要影响,而且还是影响海平面上升的重要因素,从而成为人们关注的焦点。论文总结了国内外相关研究进展,讨论了研究中存在的主要问题,认为国内的研究范围与深入程度与国外相比仍存在很大差距,突出表现在冰川融化对水资源影响的作用过程与机理研究很少,预测模型在种类、概念框架及技术手段等方面发展滞后。未来西部冰川水资源变化的社会经济与环境影响是西部大开发必须考虑的内容,因此急需加强相关监测与研究。     

冈底斯中段冷布岗日嘎尔琼沟MIS3以来冰川重建及其平衡线高程估算

冰川与全球气候变化、水资源保护等有着密切关系。根据前人测得的嘎尔琼沟冰碛物¹⁰Be暴露年龄,以及冰川塑性流动理论重建深海氧同位素3阶段（MIS3）以来12次冰进期古冰川表面高程和厚度分布,并分别运用积累区面积比率法（accumulation area ratio,AAR）和面积-高程平衡率法（area altitude balance ratio,AABR）重新估算各期冰川作用的平衡线高程（equilibrium-line altitude,ELA）。结果显示：（1）该冰川面积从MIS3时期的18 km²减少为现在的7.5 km²,小冰期（Little Ice Age,LIA）以来锐减;（2）冰川体积从MIS3时期的1.909 km³减少为现在的0.703 km³,缩减1.206 km³;（3）ELA自MIS3以来上升296 m或227 m,MIS2早期以来上升220 m或178 m,末次冰盛期（Last Glacial Maximum,LGM）以来上升206 m或169 m,早全新世以来上升169 m或144 m,新冰期以来上升113 m或108 m,LIA以来上升79 m或85 m。通过区域对比发现,从30 ka BP开始,青藏高原总体上趋向干旱化,嘎尔琼沟冰进规模逐次减小是对干旱化气候背景的响应。新冰期研究区冰川萎缩速度加快,可能与青藏高原季风在同时期的显著减弱有关。     

Mitochondrial DNA variation pattern and postglacial history of the Siberian larch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Larix sibirica</Emphasis> Ledeb.)

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation has been studied in populations of the Siberian larch with the use of five PCR-based markers characterizing 29 haplotypes. The studied populations from the main parts of the Siberian larch range belong to several geographically isolated groups with their specific sets of haplotypes, which have probably originated from separate refugia for forest vegetation of the last glacial maximum. Conclusions concerning the possible location of these refugia and the ways and pattern of the postglacial recolonization of the recent Siberian larch range are drawn. The spatial distribution of haplotypes within individual populations is nonrandom. The typical size of the area occupied by a group of plants with the same haplotype is 50–100 m across.     

An economic evaluation framework for land-use-based conservation policy instruments in a changing climate

Climate change is a key threat to biodiversity. To conserve species under climate change, ecologists and conservation scientists suggest 2 main conservation strategies regarding land use: supporting species’ range shifts to enable it to follow its climatic requirements by creating migration pathways, such as corridors and stepping stones, and conserving climate refugia (i.e., existing habitat areas that are somewhat buffered from climate change). The policy instruments that could be used to implement these conservation strategies have yet to be evaluated comprehensively from an economic perspective. The economic analyses of environmental policy instruments are often based on ecological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness criteria. We adapted these general criteria to evaluate policy instruments for species’ conservation under climate change and applied them to a conceptual analysis of land purchases, offsets, and conservation payments. Depending on whether the strategy supporting species’ range shifts or conserving climate refugia is selected, the evaluation of the policy instruments differed substantially. For example, to ensure ecological effectiveness, habitat persistence over time was especially important for climate refugia and was best achieved by a land-purchase policy instrument. In contrast, for the strategy supporting range shifts to be ecologically effective, a high degree of flexibility in the location of conserved sites was required to ensure that new habitat sites can be created in the species’ new range. Offset programs were best suited for that because the location of conservation sites can be chosen comparatively freely and may also be adapted over time.     

Evaluating surrogates of genetic diversity for conservation planning

Protected-area systems should conserve intraspecific genetic diversity. Because genetic data require resources to obtain, several approaches have been proposed for generating plans for protected-area systems (prioritizations) when genetic data are not available. Yet such surrogate-based approaches remain poorly tested. We evaluated the effectiveness of potential surrogate-based approaches based on microsatellite genetic data collected across the Iberian Peninsula for 7 amphibian and 3 reptilian species. Long-term environmental suitability did not effectively represent sites containing high genetic diversity (allelic richness). Prioritizations based on long-term environmental suitability had similar performance to random prioritizations. Geographic distances and resistance distances based on contemporary environmental suitability were not always effective surrogates for identification of combinations of sites that contain individuals with different genetic compositions. Our results demonstrate that population genetic data based on commonly used neutral markers can inform prioritizations, and we could not find an adequate substitute. Conservation planners need to weigh the potential benefits of genetic data against their acquisition costs.