全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

Locating Co-presence in Media Messages about Global Warming

This paper responds to recent calls for alternative approaches to the analysis of environmental communication that uncover overlooked voices in the discussion of environmental issues. Borrowing core principles from critical rhetoric, it suggests a way to categorize media messages according to how human–nature relationships are constructed in media discourse. The paper illustrates how, in presenting contrasting and often oppositional constructions of human–nature relationships, the media messages examined articulate three recurrent (but not equal) discourses on global warming. These discourses include (1) nature-as-out-of-reach discourse, (2) nature-as-antagonist discourse, and (3) nature-as-co-present discourse. By juxtaposing these discourses, the paper shows how environmental communication scholars can engage in critical realism and political advocacy to illuminate latent public discourse that holds the potential to champion marginalized voices of nature and accentuate the interconnectedness of humans and the environment.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

The climate adaptation imperative: local choices targeting global problems?

When confronted with the demands of global climate change, what causes some policy-makers to move the climate adaptation agenda forward in their communities, while others seemingly get little accomplished? To answer this question, we first discuss work on policy-drivers in a coupled human–natural systemic context. This summary review of past research helps us develop a set of competing and complementary explanations for why some communities aggressively pursue climate adaptation policies, while others do less. Following the discussion of policy-drivers, we then undertake an aggregate-level analysis of data collected across the 169 towns in Connecticut regarding climate adaptation, thus linking policy to its fundamental global cause. The quantitative data are augmented with interview data from policy-makers and activists from around the New England region.     

Why does the United States lack a global warming policy? The corporate inner circle versus public interest sector elites

Why has the United States not adopted global warming policies? Because the inner circle of the corporate elite has opposed these policies despite some corporate support for cap-and-trade and other policies. Pro- and anti-positions taken by think tanks that have led the policy debate in the post-Kyoto period are analyzed in order to demonstrate this. The corporate and upper class social ties of the directors of these pro- and anti-think tanks are examined, revealing a corporate elite split between the inner circle opposing these policies, and a ‘public interest sector’ of corporate law and media corporations along with top executives from higher education and other nonprofits that is supportive of policies addressing global warming. To enable adoption of major global warming policies, the corporate inner circle will need to become supportive and forge a class-wide corporate consensus on the need to address global warming.     

Environmental assessment of garden waste management in the Municipality of Aarhus, Denmark

An environmental assessment of six scenarios for handling of garden waste in the Municipality of Aarhus (Denmark) was performed from a life cycle perspective by means of the LCA-model EASEWASTE. In the first (baseline) scenario, the current garden waste management system based on windrow composting was assessed, while in the other five scenarios alternative solutions including incineration and home composting of fractions of the garden waste were evaluated. The environmental profile (normalised to Person Equivalent, PE) of the current garden waste management in Aarhus is in the order of −6 to 8 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the non-toxic categories and up to 100 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the toxic categories. The potential impacts on non-toxic categories are much smaller than what is found for other fractions of municipal solid waste. Incineration (up to 35% of the garden waste) and home composting (up to 18% of the garden waste) seem from an environmental point of view suitable for diverting waste away from the composting facility in order to increase its capacity. In particular the incineration of woody parts of the garden waste improved the environmental profile of the garden waste management significantly.     

Long-term changes in microbial water quality indicators in a hydro-power plant reservoir: The role of natural factors and socio-economic changes

Long-term changes, from 1984 to 2010, in the indicators of microbial pollution (total viable count, coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci, and Clostridium perfringens) are analysed in the Riga Hydropower Plant Reservoir, an essential source of drinking water for Riga, the capital of Latvia. Counts in microbial indicators fluctuated seasonally and were related to physicochemical parameters (nitrogen compounds, turbidity, temperature, and pH). The changes in microbial pollution were brought about by two major socio-economic developments. Firstly, Latvia’s independence from the USSR in 1991 which facilitated a distinct reduction in most microorganism counts due to a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. This resulted in a significant drop in point and nonpoint pollution in the river basin. A further development was Latvia joining the European Union in 2004. The corresponding focus on water management, including wastewater treatment, was a major priority of environmental investment and lead to improvements in microbial water quality.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01470-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

渤海湾大型底栖生物群落结构变化及原因探讨

根据近6年来的渤海湾大型底栖生物群落的资料,以及2011年的现场调查数据,从渤海湾底栖生物群落结构的变化特征出发,分析了其变化的过程和规律.同时结合渤海湾水域近几年来的水动力条件以及营养盐、溶解氧等水质特征变化,探讨底栖生物群落变化的原因.结果表明,渤海湾大型底栖生物的物种数、生物量、丰度、丰富度指数、多样性指数的高值区皆集中分布在海河口北侧离岸较远的海域,而低值区则基本集中分布近岸海域,且呈现由近岸向外海逐渐增加的趋势.渤海湾大型底栖生物群落变化可大体分为3个明显的时间节点:第一个时间节点为2005年和2008年,底栖生物群落无论总物种数、生物量和丰度都较高;第二个时间节点为2009年和2010年,底栖生物群落的上述指标值最低,表明这两年渤海湾受自然变化和人为因素干扰的程度加剧;2011年,由于渤海湾水域的各项强有力的环保措施的实施,底栖生物群落的上述指标值最高,说明其得到一定程度的恢复.渤海湾水域底栖生物群落变化受到该区域的物理因素、化学因素和生物因素的共同影响,变化特征也与各环境因素的变化基本吻合.     

FY2 号气象卫星估算地面太阳辐射研究

综合考虑太阳因素、地形因素、地表积雪覆盖情况、云量以及非均质大气对太阳辐射的影响,基于FY2 号静止卫星构建晴空太阳总辐射计算模型,并利用山西省3 个辐射观测站2011 年逐时、逐日、逐月太阳总辐射观测资料对其估算结果进行检验。研究结果显示：逐时误差在±1 MJ·m^-2之间,逐日误差在±5 MJ·m^-2之间,表明模型计算的太阳辐射误差较小,稳定性较好;逐月误差结果显示,三个站模拟值都大于实测值,且误差趋势一致,均表现为冬季误差高于夏季;进一步对模拟值和实测值进行相关性分析,三站线性拟合度均在0.86～0.92 之间,且相关系数均达到显著相关水平,表明模型计算的太阳辐射准确性和精度较高,且在数值拟合上较好地反映了实际的太阳总辐射量,证实该模型应用于FY2 号气象卫星的可行性。     

青藏高原东北部更尕海沉积软体动物壳体同位素初步研究

文章通过建立更尕海湖泊沉积岩芯软体动物化石属种组合,对比分析了软体动物壳体碳氧同位素的种内、种间变化。结果显示,壳体氧同位素种内变化较小,通常小于0.3‰;相同属不同种的壳体氧同位素种间差异约为0.3‰,但较相同属种的波动幅度大:不同属种的壳体氧同位素的种间差异最大,且波动幅度更大一些。壳体碳同位素的种内和种间差异均较氧同位素大,尤其是碳同位素的种间差异更为显著,可能与软体动物的"生命效应"有关。合理评价软体动物壳体同位素种内和种间变化对于理解软体动物壳体同位素所记录的气候变化具有重要的意义。