Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species.     

两宋时期自然灾害的文学记述与地理分布规律

两宋320年间共发生灾害1739次,灾害种类14种,如此深重的灾害是导致两宋"积贫积弱,国力不强"的一大主要因素.由于宋朝时期的地理气候特点,水灾、旱灾接连不断发生,并且成为两宋最主要的自然灾害.古代自然灾害研究主要依据史书记载,中国是世界上少数灾害多发的国家之一,文学作品中反映出来的灾难与救世观念可以给人们很多启发.以王禹偁为代表的宋代文学家给后世留下了许多记述灾害的文学作品,从文学作品的记述中可以提取古代灾害的准确信息.北宋都城位于开封,南宋京都在杭州,由于史料对当时中央政府所在地省份的记述颇为翔实,两宋自然灾害的省区分布,以河南、浙江灾害次数最多.     

Estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), one of Australia's most characteristic megafauna, was the largest marsupial carnivore until hunting, and potentially disease, drove it to extinction in 1936. Although thylacines were restricted to Tasmania for 2 millennia prior to their extinction, recent so‐called plausible sightings on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland have emerged, leading some to speculate the species may have persisted undetected. We compiled a data set that included physical evidence, expert‐validated sightings, and unconfirmed sightings up to the present day and implemented a range of extinction models (focusing on a Bayesian approach that incorporates all 3 types of data by modeling valid and invalid sightings as independent processes) to evaluate the likelihood of the thylacine's persistence. Although the last captive individual died in September 1936, our results suggested that the most likely extinction date would be 1940. Our other extinction models estimated the thylacine's extinction date between 1936 and 1943, and the most optimistic scenario indicated that the species did not persist beyond 1956. The search for the thylacine, much like similar efforts to rediscover other recently extinct charismatic taxa, is likely to be fruitless, especially given that persistence on Tasmania would have been no guarantee the species could reappear in regions that had been unoccupied for millennia. The search for the thylacine may become a rallying point for conservation and wildlife biology and could indirectly help fund and support critical research in understudied areas such as Cape York. However, our results suggest that attempts to rediscover the thylacine will be unsuccessful and that the continued survival of the thylacine is entirely implausible based on most current mathematical theories of extinction.     

Use of a novel biomarker,botryococcane, to monitor biodegradation of two lacustrine‐sourced crude oils

Bioremediation is a proven alternative for remediating petroleum‐impacted soils at exploration and production (E&P) sites. Monitoring remediation performance can involve detection and quantification of biodegradation resistant compounds such as C₃₀17α(H),21β(H)‐hopane, which requires the use of gas chromatography with mass spectrometry detection (GC/MS). Due to the remoteness of many E&P sites, this technology is not always available, and alternative methods are needed to provide reliable quantitative measurements of petroleum remediation efficiency. This study provides a detailed chemical characterization of lacustrine‐sourced crude oils and a technical basis for measuring the effectiveness of bioremediation efforts for soil impacted by those crudes. We show that the novel isoprenoid hydrocarbon botryococcane is relatively stable in lacustrine‐sourced crude oils compared with C₃₀17α(H),21β(H)‐hopane under moderate biodegradation conditions generally observed in field samples. We have also demonstrated that, due to the stability and relatively elevated concentration of botryococcane in lacustrine oils, it can be reliably measured using the more cost‐effective and available GC/FID methodology, and thereby be used to monitor the progress of ongoing soil bioremediation activities at remote sites.     

鄱阳湖重金属Cu的运动足迹研究

选取我国典型的通江湖泊--鄱阳湖作为研究区域,采用MIKE21水动力模型耦合粒子追踪模型,模拟在重力型、顶托型、倒灌型3种不同湖流形态下鄱阳湖中重金属Cu的运动足迹.结果显示：（1）1月（重力型）,长江下游处重金属运动速率最快,为2.111km/d,粒子一直沿着由北向南的方向运动至湖区中心的西北方向,之后突然改变运动方向;5月（顶托型）,长江上游处重金属运动速率最大,达到2.901km/d;8月（倒灌型）,与顶托型类似,长江上游处重金属运动速率最快,为3.287km/d.（2）从各支流重金属整体的运动情况来看,鄱阳湖水位受到五河来水及长江倒灌的影响,各点源重金属在湖区的运动足迹受顶托型和倒灌型湖流形态作用的影响较大,长江上、下游处重金属在不同湖流的影响下流速均较大,受湖流形态影响最小的是抚河的2个支流,粒子运动速率表现为：倒灌型 > 顶托型 > 重力型.     

大连台地磁数字记录与模拟记录的对比分析

对正在运行的大连台地磁数字记录和模拟记录,从地磁相对记录的三种变化磁场的类型进行了逐一对比分析,结果表明,虽然数字记录的整体方面明显优于模拟记录,但二者又各有其特点,数字记录代替模拟记录应该还有一段过渡的过程。     

东营断陷湖盆充填过程对烃源岩的控制作用研究

下第三系沙河街组是东营凹陷最重要的生油层段 ,精细研究发现沙河街组主力烃源岩在岩性岩相组合、有机质性质和组成等方面存在显著的差异性。通过分析盆地的沉积体系和演化序列 ,将沙河街组烃源岩自下而上划分为三个发展演化阶段 ,从湖盆形成早期的欠充填阶段经过平衡充填到最后的过充填 ,经历了一个完整的湖盆类型演变旋回过程 ,它们分别对应于岩石地层单元中的沙四上亚段、沙三下亚段和沙三中、上亚段。由于湖泊充填过程的阶段性导致了各充填单元烃源岩有机质的组成成分、有机质的保存条件和生物标志化合物等地球化学指标的差异性 ,而这些特征的差异性正说明了湖盆的充填过程控制了烃源岩的形成和发育。     

GENERALIZED LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS FOR UNGAGED SITES IN MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: Regional hydrologic procedures such as generalized least squares regression and streamflow record augmentation have been advocated for obtaining estimates of both flood-flow and low-flow statistics at ungaged sites. While such procedures are extremely useful in regional flood-flow studies, no evaluation of their merit in regional low-flow estimation has been made using actual streamflow data. This study develops generalized regional regression equations for estimating the d-day, T-year low-flow discharge, Q_{d, t}, at ungaged sites in Massachusetts where d = 3, 7, 14, and 30 days. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is fit to sequences of annual minimum d-day low-flows and the estimated parameters of the lognormal distribution are then related to two drainage basin characteristics: drainage area and relief. The resulting models are general, simple to use, and about as precise as most previous models that only provide estimates of a single statistic such as Q_7,10. Comparisons are provided of the impact of using ordinary least squares regression, generalized least squares regression, and streamflow record augmentation procedures to fit regional low-flow frequency models in Massachusetts.     

滇中抚仙湖沉积物元素特征与流域侵蚀研究

通过对云南滇中盆地高原深水湖泊抚仙湖沉积岩芯进行X射线荧光光谱（XRF）元素与磁化率连续扫描,结合聚类分析、主成分分析方法和其它相关环境代用指标,探讨了抚仙湖流域自1840年以来的流域侵蚀与人类活动特征.研究结果表明,抚仙湖XRF元素扫描的聚类分析结果具有明显的阶段性特征,可将其大致划分为3个阶段,即34~24cm（约1715~1813年）,24~9cm（约1813~1947年）和9~0cm（约1947~2018年）.基于抚仙湖沉积物岩芯中元素比值和低频磁化率的主成分分析,识别出的主成分1与主成分2的方差贡献分别为37.72%和25.73%.指示抚仙湖流域侵蚀强度的元素比值Rb/Sr、Ti/Sr、Ti/Rb公因子载荷较大（>0.6）,该结果表明,抚仙湖外源碎屑沉积物的元素比值对流域侵蚀与人类活动具有良好的指示意义.因此,本文使用湖相沉积中的环境代用指标对抚仙湖流域侵蚀与人类活动强度进行重建.研究结果表明,1840年以来人类活动加剧了流域侵蚀强度.自1990年以来随着流域生态环境的逐步恢复,侵蚀强度总体较弱.