Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.     

Increasing the Accuracy of Productivity and Survival Estimates in Assessing Landbird Population Status

Abstract:  The conservation of species with declining populations requires information on population demography and identification of factors that limit population growth. For landbird species, an understanding of large-scale population declines often requires assessment of local population processes, including the production of offspring, the survival of those offspring, and adult survival. Population growth has been modeled for several species of landbirds to date, and these studies have provided important information on relationships between population status and population-limiting factors. Several recent studies have illuminated field methods and analytical techniques that can aid in increasing the accuracy of productivity and survival estimates for population models. We reviewed these methods and recommend their implementation, including quantification of the season-long productivity of individuals, collection of empirical data on juvenile survival during the postfledging and overwintering periods, and incorporation of adult breeding dispersal into annual adult survival estimates. Such methods will allow for more accurate assessment of population status and provide a better understanding of the factors on which to focus our conservation efforts.     

Edge Effects in the Great Tit: Analyses of Long-term Data with GIS Techniques

Abstract:  In contemporary fragmented landscapes, edges are commonplace, and understanding the effects of edge environments is thus essential for the conservation of forest communities. The reproductive output of forest passerines is often reduced close to forest edges. Possible explanations include overcrowding by conspecifics, elevated rates of predation, and the occurrence of lower-quality habitat and/or individuals at forest edges. We attempted to separate these processes by examining edge effects in the absence of nest predation and by effectively controlling for differences in breeding density and the quality of habitats and individuals. We used an edge distance index (EDI), which accounts for the number and distribution of edges in close proximity to a breeding location, to help explain variation in breeding density, nesting success, and reproductive traits of 8308 pairs of Great Tits ( Parus major ) breeding between 1965 and 2005, in Wytham, near Oxford, United Kingdom. Results from linear mixed modeling confirmed higher breeding density and a higher proportion of immigrant individuals at forest edges. Nevertheless, independently of these effects, we also found that birds laying later, with smaller clutches but larger eggs, were typical of edge environments. The number of offspring recruited to the breeding offspring per breeding attempt was also reduced at edges, both directly and mediated through changes in clutch size and laying date. Edge effects on life histories were detectable within individual females and up to 500 m from the woodland edge. Woodland edges are increasingly common in contemporary fragmented landscapes. Therefore these results, which suggest a pervasive effect of edges on reproduction, are of considerable importance to the management and conservation of forest communities.     

Effects of Restoring Oak Savannas on Bird Communities and Populations

Abstract:  Efforts to restore and maintain oak savannas in North America, with emphasis on the use of prescribed fire, have become common. Little is known, however, about how restoration affects animal populations, especially those of birds. I compared the breeding densities, community structure, and reproductive success of birds in oak savannas maintained by prescribed fire (12 sites) with those in closed-canopy forests (13 sites). All sampling was conducted in Illinois (U.S.A.). Of the 31 bird species analyzed, 12 were more common in savannas, 14 were not affected by habitat structure, and 5 were more common in forest habitat. The species favored by disturbance and restoration included Northern Bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ), Mourning Doves (  Zenaida macroura ), Red-headed Woodpeckers (  Melanerpes erythrocephalus ), Indigo Buntings (  Passerina cyanea ), and Baltimore Orioles ( Icterus galbula ). Those more common in closed-canopy forest included Ovenbirds ( Seiurus aurocapilla ) and Wood Thrushes (  Hylocichla mustelina ). Few species were unique to one type of habitat, but overall avian community structure in oak savannas and closed-canopy forests was generally distinctive. Estimates of nesting success (derived from 785 nests) revealed that 6 of the 13 species considered experienced greater productivity in the savanna habitat. Rates of brood parasitism were unaffected by restoration and habitat structure. Within savannas, tract size had little effect on breeding abundances and reproductive success. My results illustrate that restoration techniques can significantly affect the ecology of constituent animal populations and communities and have key implications regarding avian conservation and the management of forest habitat in fragmented landscapes. Small patches of forest habitat that regularly function as population sinks may offer far better prospects for birds if they are subjected to disturbance and ecosystem restoration.     

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.     

Caps and gaps: a computer model for studies on brood incubation strategies in honeybees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera carnica</Emphasis>)

In addition to heat production on the comb surface, honeybee workers frequently visit open cells (“gaps”) that are scattered throughout the sealed brood area, and enter them to incubate adjacent brood cells. We examined the efficiency of this heating strategy under different environmental conditions and for gap proportions from 0 to 50%. For gap proportions from 4 to 10%, which are common to healthy colonies, we find a significant reduction in the incubation time per brood cell to maintain the correct temperature. The savings make up 18 to 37% of the time, which would be required for this task in completely sealed brood areas without any gaps. For unnatural high proportions of gaps (>20%), which may be the result of inbreeding or indicate a poor condition of the colony, brood nest thermoregulation becomes less efficient, and the incubation time per brood cell has to increase to maintain breeding temperature. Although the presence of gaps is not essential to maintain an optimal brood nest temperature, a small number of gaps make heating more economical by reducing the time and energy that must be spent on this vital task. As the benefit depends on the availability, spatial distribution and usage of gaps by the bees, further studies need to show the extent to which these results apply to real colonies. M. Fehler and M. Kleinhenz contributed equally to this work.     

Differences in Predators of Artificial and Real Songbird Nests: Evidence of Bias in Artificial Nest Studies

Abstract:  In the past two decades, many researchers have used artificial nests to measure relative rates of nest predation. Recent comparisons show that real and artificial nests may not be depredated at the same rates, but no one has examined the mechanisms underlying these patterns. We determined differences in predator-specific predation rates of real and artificial nests. We used video cameras to monitor artificial nests baited with quail and plasticine eggs and Field Sparrow ( Spizella pusilla ) and Indigo Bunting ( Passerina cyanea ) nests in field habitats in central Missouri (U.S.A.). Although daily predation estimates (all predators pooled) were similar between artificial and real nests, predators differed substantially in their depredation of artificial versus real nests. Snakes were the major predator at real nests, and raccoons ( Procyon lotor) were the major predator at artificial nests. We found strong support for models that distinguished predation between two or among three predator groups and between artificial and real nests. There was no snake predation of artificial nests, and the odds of predation of artificial nests was 115–551% (95% confidence interval) and 2–154% of the odds of predation of real nests by mammals and birds, respectively. Artificial nests with plasticine eggs could not be used reliably to identify predators. In several cases plasticine eggs were marked by mice, and raccoons were recorded on video removing the quail egg. Because biases for artificial nests were positive for some predators and negative for other predators (and could be compensating), and potentially existed for all predator groups, conclusions based on artificial nest studies should be suspect even when there is evidence that overall predation rates are similar among real and artificial nests.     

Hibernation clustering and its consequences for associative nest foundation in<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Polistes dominulus</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera Vespidae)

Various studies indicate that cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) act as cues for nestmate recognition in paper wasps and other social insects. A recent study showed that associative nest foundation in Polistes dominulus is mainly performed by foundresses coming from the same locality. In the present study, we induced future foundresses of P. dominulus collected in two different localities to hibernate in the laboratory in aggregates of individuals from the same or different localities. After 2 months of hibernation, foundresses from different localities but from the same experimental cluster did not show any preference to associate, at the time of nest foundation, with individuals coming from the same original locality. The cuticular chemical profiles of individuals from the mixed hibernation clusters were quite similar and significantly different from those of individuals which hibernated with other foundresses from the same locality. These findings suggest that, in this species, mechanisms other than nestmate chemical recognition play a major role in the spring association of gynes during the foundation of a new nest.Communicated by R.F.A. Moritz     

Nest-size variation reflecting anti-predator strategies in social spider mites of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Stigmaeopsis</Emphasis> (Acari: Tetranychidae)

The social spider mites (Acari: Tetranychidae) of Stigmaeopsis weave dense nests on the underside of host leaves. Four species occur on the leaves of bamboo in Japan: Stigmaeopsis longus, S. celarius, S. takahashii and S. saharai. We initially reconfirmed the occurrence of distinct variation in nest size among the species. Based on the hypothesis that this variation plays a role in protecting the spider mites from predators, we looked at the behavior of the natural enemies that occur on the host plants along with members of Stigmaeopsis. We found considerable variation in the ability of nests to protect the spider-mite eggs. The smallest nests protected the eggs against three predators, whereas the largest nests protected the eggs against only one predator species. So, decreases in nest size increased egg defense. Thus we concluded that nest-size variation reflects a strategy for reducing predation.Communicated by D. Gwynne     

Evidence of an Edge Effect on Avian Nest Success

Abstract:  Habitat fragmentation may modify ecological patterns by increasing the importance of edge effects, including elevating rates of predation on avian nests. Conventional wisdom suggests an increased rate of predation along habitat edges, and previous reviews support this view. These reviews did not apply recent statistical approaches, however, and some were based on a small number of studies. In our meta-analysis of 64 nest-predation experiments, our results supported prior reviews of the general pattern of increased nest predation along habitat edges (  p < 0.01). We separated studies into ecologically relevant categories and found the following patterns: (1) Edge effects were more pronounced in North America and northwestern Europe than in central Europe or Central America. This result may be biased, however, by the different habitats studied in the regions. (2) Marshes and deciduous forests had significant edge effects, whereas edge effects were not apparent in coniferous forests, tropical forests, or fields. (3) Ground and natural nest studies were more likely to exhibit edge effects. (4) Edge effects were detected in studies that used quail eggs and real eggs. (5) Edge effects were not significant when artificial nests were exposed for typical incubation periods, but were significant for shorter exposures. Three alternative hypotheses may explain increased nest predation along edges. The edge-effects hypothesis states that increased nest losses along edges are the result of the habitat discontinuity. The landscape-structure hypothesis states that more fragmented landscapes are more heavily depredated by nest predators. The human-disturbance hypothesis states that near anthropogenic edges increased nest predation is related to human activities. Nest-predation experiments should be placed in a landscape context to reveal differences between the hypotheses.