Impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions in Sichuan,China

Global climate change is one of the major environmental issues faced by humans.Existing evidence indicates that the anthropogenic push for a rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases(GHGs)(particularly CO_2)has been a primary cause for global warming.Aside from economic and teclinological factors,demographic dynamics(including human consumption in a broad demographic sense)has been a major driver for CO_2 emissions.In this paper,we performed both nonlinear regression analysis(based on the STIRPAT model)and gray correlation degree analysis(based on gray system theory)on the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions.Our results reveal that CO_2 emissions are positively correlated with population size and GDP per capita and negatively correlated with energy intensity.We also show that gray correlation degree with CO_2 emissions for five variables(i.e.,household consumption,urbanization rate,household size,population aging rate,population size)varies substantially:household consumptionurbanization ratehousehold sizepopulation aging ratepopulation size,with household consumption being the highest,and population size the lowest.To mitigate the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions,it is of vital significance to nurture people's awareness of sustainable consumption and to adhere to current population control policies.     

The role of floods in the Long-term dynamics of geobiont and chortobiont communities on islands of the Kuibyshev Reservoir

Interannual changes in geobiont and chortobiont abundance on the islands of Kuibyshev Reservoir are largely determined by flood conditions, because the seasonal average abundance of many taxa is negatively correlated to the water level in May and June. Floods influence the abundance of these animals both directly and indirectly, through biocenotic connections and some aspects of behavior. Long-term positive trends are observed in the abundance of many species. The hypothesis is proposed that this increase in the abundance of geobionts and chortobionts is a consequence of adaptation processes in these communities, which are stimulated by the flood regime of the reservoir.     

Numerical simulation of an array of fences in Saemangeum reclaimed land

This paper discusses about the quantitative effect of windbreak fences on wind velocity in the reclaimed land at Saemangeum in South Korea. Windbreak fences were constructed in the reclaimed land to reduce the wind velocity to prevent the generation and diffusion of dust. However, up to this time, no in-depth studies were conducted to quantitatively measure the effect of the windbreak fences on wind velocity thus an optimum windbreak structure is not yet determined. Using CFD simulations, the effects of fence porosity, fence height, and the distance between the adjacent fences were investigated. A wind tunnel experiment was initially conducted and data gathered were used to develop the CFD models. From the experiments and CFD simulations, the overall percentage difference of the measured velocities was 7.20% which is generally acceptable to establishing the reliability of the CFD models. The reduction effect on wind velocity was measured in between the adjacent fences up to a height of 0.6 m from the ground surface. In terms of porosity ( = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6), 0.2 was found to be the optimum value. Conversely, the effect of fence height (0.6, 0.8 and 1.0 m) showed no significant difference; therefore, 0.6 m height is recommended. In addition, the reduction effect of distance between the adjacent fences (2, 4 and 6 m) on wind velocity having a 0.2 porosity has decreased to about 75% regardless of the distance. In the case of the reclaimed land in Saemangeum, a decrease of 75% can prevent the generation and diffusion of dusts. However, the source of dusts is very large. Therefore, constructing an array of windbreak with 6 m distance between them is deemed necessary.     

计算毒理学在内分泌干扰物筛选上的应用和展望

内分泌干扰物通过干扰内分泌系统导致多种疾病,如生殖疾病、肥胖症甚至癌症。然而,面对环境中大量潜在的内分泌干扰物,传统的体外、体内评估方法由于成本高、耗时长等问题,难以实现内分泌干扰物的高通量筛查。计算毒理学逐渐发展成为被美国环保局(Environmental Protection Agency,EPA)、经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,OECD)等机构所推荐的内分泌干扰物筛选与预测方法。本文综述了计算毒理学在内分泌干扰物筛选上的进展,主要包括分子对接和分子动力学模拟的应用,并对有害结局路径(adverse outcome pathway,AOP)的方法进行介绍和展望。     

Critical review of Integrated Water Resources Management: Moving beyond polarised discourse

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) emerged as a popular concept in the water sector in the 20th century. From a highly techno-centric approach in the past, it has taken a new turn embracing Habermasian communicative rationality as a place-based nexus for multiple actors to consensually and communicatively integrate decisions in a hydrological unit. The 'how to integrate' approach had remarkable appeal worldwide in promoting authentic participation of all stakeholders. However, critics argue that the domain of water resource management is a political process of contestation and negotiation; the emphasis is on complexities, contextuality, power dynamics and the importance of analysing real world situations. They demonstrate 'how integration cannot be achieved' given the power dynamics in social interactions. These apparently contradictory discourses draw on different theoretical paradigms and polarise the discourse on IWRM, without offering constructive alternatives. To this end, this paper offers an option to complement this polarised discourse by examining 'how integration actually does take place' in a strategic context thereby facilitating consensual decisions to integrate water management for a sustainable future.     

基于连通法的甲烷简化机理构筑研究

采用连通法，针对甲烷复杂反应机理，成功地进行了不同水平的机理简化研究。通过建立组分依赖关系的正规化Jacobian矩阵，精确地查明了燃烧组分之间的耦合关系，分别构造出仅包含重要化学路径的两个动力学简化模型，获得的简化机理分别包含227和138个反应，分别涉及39和26种组分。通过对层流预混火焰结构的模拟，所得简化机理和原详细反应动力学机理关于火焰结构的计算吻合很好，计算结果显示，两个简化机理具有较高的模拟精度。     

绵竹县社会经济发展战略的系统动力学研究

摆脱传统思维方式的束缚,采用科学的、系统的、程序化的方法制定我国县级经济和社会发展战略,是我国现代化建设提出的一项艰巨任务。本文旨在通过介绍“绵竹县经济社会发展总体规划(系统工程应用)研究”的核心部分——绵竹县社会经济系统动态仿真模型设计与发展战略的仿真实验择优,阐述系统工程的原理和运用数学模型方法对县级社会经济系统进行总体设计、预演和优化的一点体会。     

O&M SPENDING LEVELS IN THIRD WORLD IRRIGATION SYSTEMS: EXPLORING ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: Third World irrigation and drainage systems have experienced major declines recently in both capability and performance. This is due initially to working them well beyond their design capaci-capacities; scouring, sedimentation, and overtopping result. Chronic O&M underfunding then adds heavily to this worsening malaise. International donors have assisted irrigation departments with rehabilitation projects and programs to improve O&M effectiveness on a grand (billions of dollars) scale. Despite their historical propensity to examine, almost fastidiously, program economic justifications (B/C, IRR, etc), the donors apparently have glossed over two basic analytic elements for (a) more spending on O&M as distinct from an equivalent spending on other means to provide farmers with an m³ of water; and (b) different levels of O&M spending on canals and drains. Surely those different levels provide differing benefits, in total, and at the margin. Which level is most economic? This paper identifies these latter analytical issues, posits methodologies key to an O&M spending level analysis, and discusses the information base. Particular attention is paid to identifying relevant costs and benefits, and to suggesting supplementary criteria for O&M spending level selection. The paper is an exercise in delineation of an imminently practical area of irrigation engineering economics.     

用固体力学化学理论研究岩土的力学化学行为——以成都龙泉紫色土为例

根据固体力学化学理论 ,提出用化学动力学方法研究岩土破坏及滑坡形成的机理 ,并以成都龙泉紫色土为例研究了在力与水协同作用下易滑土层的力学化学行为。实验表明 ,土长期抗剪强度降低的幅度与溶液的pH值有关 ,土的溶解速度与易溶盐含量有关 ,且溶解曲线略呈“S”型。这初步证明了龙泉紫色土破坏的力学 化学效应及其可能存在的自催化趋势。通过实验了解了力与水协同作用导致土破坏的力学化学规律 ,并将定量求解滑面长期抗剪强度与反应机理研究结合起来 ,为定量评价地下水和应力对岩土破坏机理这一滑坡学关键问题打下基础。     

计算流体力学(CFD)中的迭代法及其并行计算方法

应用计算流体力学 (CFD)方法分析事故原因已被广泛采用 ,笔者针对事故理论分析和流体计算过程中 ,运用CFD方法所存在计算量大的问题 ,分析和讨论了几种古典迭代法及其并行计算方法