LINEAR PROGRAMS FOR NONLINEAR HYDROLOGIC ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The minimization of the sum of absolute deviations and the minimization of the absolute maximum deviation (mini-max) were transformed into equivalent linear programs for the estimation of parameters in a transient and linear hydrologic system. It is demonstrated that these two methods yield viable parameter estimates that are globally optimal and reproduce properly the timing and magnitude of hydrologic events and associated variables such as total runoff. The two linear estimation methods compared favorably with the popular least-squares nonlinear estimation method. The generality of the theoretical developments shows that linear program equivalents are adequate competitors of nonlinear methods of hydrologic estimation and parameter calibration.     

Arrhenius燃烧模型对离散网络的限制

在火蔓延过程的数值模拟中，如果采用Arrhenius燃烧模型，对网格的划分有一定的限制条件。本文作者分别在层流工况和弱湍流工况下通过对油－沙池表面火蔓延过程的数值模拟研究，发现：如果采用Arrhenius燃烧模型，则不合适的网格划分会影响火焰的传播。通过对火焰传播机理的分析，提出一无量纲网格生成准则数π。如果网格划分的网格准则数π大于其临界准则数π0，则网格的划分不会影响火焰传播过程，即网格的划分是合适的，反之，若π＜π0，则所划分的网格就是不合适的，须重新生成网格。     

几种核素在土壤—生物—人体间的积累和转移

本文对Ｕ，Ｋ，＾１３７Ｃｓ，＾９０Ｓｒ等几种核素在土壤－水稻，土壤－茶叶，土壤－蔬菜之间以及水－鱼间的转移情况进行了研究；并考虑到这些核素含量较高的食品（如茶叶、黄豆）不直接全部食入人体，因此，根据人们的饮茶习惯及豆制品（水豆腐）的加工过程进行模拟，对其向人体转移的参数进行了实验研究。由上述实验结果给出了转移参数及相关方程。     

INTEGRATION OF A BASIN-SCALE WATER QUALITY MODEL WITH GIS1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been successfully integrated with distributed parameter, single-event, water quality models such as AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) and ANSWERS (Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environmental Response Simulation). These linkages proved to be an effective way to collect, manipulate, visualize, and analyze the input and output date of water quality models. However, for continuous-time, basin large-scale water quality models, collecting and manipulating the input data are more time-consuming and cumbersome due to the method of disaggregation (subdivisions are based on topographic boundaries). SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a basin-scale water quality model, was integrated with a GIS to extract input data for modeling a basin. This paper discusses the detailed development of the integration of the SWAT water quality model with GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS, along with an application and advantages. The integrated system was applied to simulated a 114 sq. km upper portion of the Seco Creek Basin by subdividing it into 37 subbasins. The average monthly predicted streamflw is in agreement with measured monthly streamflw values.     

华北几次大震前弱震分布参数R(t)的异常变化

本文详细研究了1974年以来华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前,小震时空分布参数R(t)的变化特征.结果表明:华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前小震时空分布参数R(t)值均出现了先上升,然后下降直至主震发生的异常图象。根据R(t)值异常可能对未来发生的大震作出一定程度的预报.文中对R(t)值异常变化的机制进行了初步讨论.     

REGIONALIZATION OF LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY ESTIMATES: AN ALABAMA CASE STUI)Y1

ABSTRACT: Low-flow estimates, as determined by probabilistic modeling of observed data sequences, are commonly used to describe certain streamflow characteristics. Unfortunately, however, reliable low-flow estimates can be difficult to come by, particularly for gaging sites with short record lengths. The shortness of records leads to uncertainties not only in the selection of a distribution for modeling purposes but also in the estimates of the parameters of a chosen model. In flood frequency analysis, the common approach to mitigation of some of these problems is through the regionalization of frequency behavior. The same general approach is applied here to the case of low-flow estimation, with the general intent of not only improving low-flow estimates but also illustrating the gains that might be attained in so doing. Data used for this study is that which has been systematically observed at 128 streamflow gaging sites across the State of Alabama. Our conclusions are that the log Pearson Type 3 distribution is a suitable candidate for modeling of Alabama low-flows, and that the shape parameter of that distribution can be estimated on a regional basis. Low-flow estimates based on the regional estimator are compared with estimates based on the use of only at-site estimation techniques.     

基于ISM的油港集疏运作业安全风险分析

油港集疏运作业安全对油港运营安全管理至关重要。通过实地调研、访谈及问卷调查确定了油港集疏运作业安全风险因素;分析各因素间的直接影响关系,建立邻接矩阵和可达矩阵,构建了油港集疏运作业安全影响因素的解释结构模型;通过不同层级之间的关系分析,找出了油港集疏运作业过程中优先级较高的风险因素。结果表明,表层风险因素多为设备因素,中层风险因素集中于港内自身和港外环境因素,深层风险因素主要为人为因素和安全管理因素。     

湿法脱硫后烟气中SO3/硫酸雾测试方法的试验

在自行设计和搭建的模拟湿法脱硫烟气系统中,研究了基于控制冷凝法原理的SO_3/硫酸雾采集装置对湿法脱硫后SO_3/硫酸雾的捕集性能,重点考察了螺旋管与石英棉冷凝温度、采样枪温度、采样流量、采样时间和SO_3/硫酸雾质量浓度对SO_3/硫酸雾捕集性能的影响。结果表明,在研究范围内,湿法脱硫后SO_3/硫酸雾采集装置优化的操作参数为:螺旋管及石英棉冷凝温度95℃,采样枪温度280℃,采样流量17 L/min,采样时间30 min。SO_3/硫酸雾质量浓度较高时,螺旋冷凝管对SO_3/硫酸雾的捕集起主要作用,其捕集的SO_3/硫酸雾比例在75.8%~80.8%,远高于螺旋冷凝管与石英棉捕集SO_3/硫酸雾的比例;SO_3/硫酸雾质量浓度较低(约1mg/m3)时,采样枪对SO_3/硫酸雾的捕集起主要作用,其捕集SO_3/硫酸雾的比例大于50%。     

Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration

In this paper, we show how oracle-based optimization can be effectively used for the calibration of an intermediate complexity climate model. In a fully developed example, we estimate the 12 principal parameters of the C-GOLDSTEIN climate model by using an oracle-based optimization tool, Proximal-ACCPM. The oracle is a procedure that finds, for each query point, a value for the goodness-of-fit function and an evaluation of its gradient. The difficulty in the model calibration problem stems from the need to undertake costly calculations for each simulation and also from the fact that the error function used to assess the goodness-of-fit is not convex. The method converges to a ‘best fit’ estimate over 10 times faster than a comparable test using the ensemble Kalman filter. The approach is simple to implement and potentially useful in calibrating computationally demanding models based on temporal integration (simulation), for which functional derivative information is not readily available.     

Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure