基于可拓学石化装置失效后果严重度评估方法研究

石化企业中，石化装置的安全运行对保证企业的安全生产起到关键作用，其一旦失效发生事故，将导致巨大的人员伤亡及财产损失。因此，开展石化装置失效后果严重性的评价研究，对保证石化企业的安全生产具有重要意义。本文根据物元可拓性理论，结合石化装置失效后果的严重性情况，运用可拓评判方法建立石化装置失效后果严重度的综合评判模型，给出了评价步骤，最终确定设备失效后果的严重程度。研究结果表明，该方法可应用于多层次的工程风险评价问题，从而为石化工程项目风险管理提供了一种有效的分析方法。     

A hybrid method for quasi-three-dimensional slope stability analysis in a municipal solid waste landfill

Limited space for accommodating the ever increasing mounds of municipal solid waste (MSW) demands the capacity of MSW landfill be maximized by building landfills to greater heights with steeper slopes. This situation has raised concerns regarding the stability of high MSW landfills. A hybrid method for quasi-three-dimensional slope stability analysis based on the finite element stress analysis was applied in a case study at a MSW landfill in north-east Spain. Potential slides can be assumed to be located within the waste mass due to the lack of weak foundation soils and geosynthetic membranes at the landfill base. The only triggering factor of deep-seated slope failure is the higher leachate level and the relatively high and steep slope in the front. The valley-shaped geometry and layered construction procedure at the site make three-dimensional slope stability analyses necessary for this landfill. In the finite element stress analysis, variations of leachate level during construction and continuous settlement of the landfill were taken into account. The "equivalent" three-dimensional factor of safety (FoS) was computed from the individual result of the two-dimensional analysis for a series of evenly spaced cross sections within the potential sliding body. Results indicate that the hybrid method for quasi-three-dimensional slope stability analysis adopted in this paper is capable of locating roughly the spatial position of the potential sliding mass. This easy to manipulate method can serve as an engineering tool in the preliminary estimate of the FoS as well as the approximate position and extent of the potential sliding mass. The result that FoS obtained from three-dimensional analysis increases as much as 50% compared to that from two-dimensional analysis implies the significance of the three-dimensional effect for this study-case. Influences of shear parameters, time elapse after landfill closure, leachate level as well as unit weight of waste on FoS were also investigated in this paper. These sensitivity analyses serve as the guidelines of construction practices and operating procedures for the MSW landfill under study.     

MODEL FOR PREDICTING TRANSPORT OF PESTICIDES AND THEIR METABOLITES IN THE UNSATURATED ZONE1

ABSTRACT: A finite element model based on Galerkin's upstream weighted residual technique was developed to predict the simultaneous convective-dispersion transport and transformations of pesticides and their metabolites in the unsaturated zone. Transformations of the parent compound and its metabolites were assumed to be first-order reactions for oxidation and hydrolysis, while adsorption of the pesticide species (parent compound and metabolites) to the soil components was assumed to be represented by a linear equilibrium (Freundlich type) isotherm. Volatilization and plant root uptake of pesticides in the solution phase were neglected in the analysis. The proposed model was used to simulate the transport and transformation of aldicarb and its metabolites, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone, in the soil profile. Several examples are used to demonstrate the accuracy, validity, and applicability of the proposed model. Simulated results indicate that the proposed model can potentially be used to estimate the mass flux of water, and pesticide and pesticide metabolite concentrations in the subsurface environment. However, further verification of the model against actual field data is needed to fully demonstrate the model's potential.     

黄土滑坡稳定性评价的反演分析

本文根据黄土滑坡的变形监测结果，同时考虑了边坡的初期应变分布状况，通过有限元反分析法，反推出边坡地基的力学参数，为黄土滑坡的稳定性评价和预报提供了可靠的依据。     

NUMERICAL MODELING OF SALTWATER INTRUSION IN THE NORTHERN GUAM LENS1

ABSTRACT This paper deals with the application of a two-dimensional, saltwater intrusion model to the aquifer in Northern Guam. The model used finite element theory and the Galerkin, weighted-residual technique as its basis. The Northern Guam lens was discretized into 299 linear, triangular elements and 189 nodes. The model was calibrated using 1978 hydrologic data. The output of the model was compared with measured water levels in six observation wells. The calibrated values of permeability and porosity were then used to verify the model using 1979 data. A calibrated and verified model can be used to make an infinite variety of management and planning studies. In this study, three applications are provided that would be considered typical management runs. Steady state runs were made to compare the four conditions of no pumping, 1978 pumping levels, twice 1978 pumping levels, and five times 1978 pumping levels. The water levels due to these conditions are shown in plan and in cross sections of the aquifer. The effect of zero recharge to the aquifer is next demonstrated for the pumping levels existing during 1978. The final run shows how long the aquifer takes to reach steady state when the pumping rate is increased from the 1978 pumping level to twice that value. The program can be used for numerous other studies for management and planning purposes.     

考虑纵横弯曲的空间杆系有限元计算

在普通刚架有限元计算模型的基础上 ,推导出了考虑空间纵横弯曲有限元的单元刚度矩阵和形函数 ,单元刚度矩阵和形函数考虑了轴力的影响。并以此编制了“kjgj”有限元软件 ,软件考虑了轴力引起的二阶效应。用平面和空间算例进行验证 ,单根杆件只剖分一个单元计算得到的精度可以达到商业软件剖分多个单元达到的精度。     

基于优势隐含周期分析的气象灾害预报

建立了优势因子和优势隐含周期的概念,并提出了多因子逐步回归周期分析的新方法。该方法既能增长预报期,又能充分利用物理因子的重要信息,同时在计算过程中还能挑选出起显著作用的优势因子和优势隐含周期,对预报气象要素的变化趋势效果较好,有一定的实用价值,是气象灾害预报的一条比较有效的途径。     

水环境背景元素的时间差异变化规律

研究化学元素在枯、丰、平三个水季悬浮态、可溶态、沉积态的含量变化。以黄梨树水文站作为动态观测点，三年观测得出水化学要素、重金属元素及稀有、稀土元素变化最大的是丰水季；悬浮体相当于枯水季的２５０倍；悬浮态和可溶态元素含量（原水）同样形成丰水季＞平水季＞枯水季的趋势；而可溶态元素含量（过滤水）各个水期无大的变化差异。沉积物在三个水季中元素含量变化差异也较小，但有机质相反，含量出现枯水季＞平水季＞丰水季这样的规律。