Marine Ecological Research in New Zealand: Developing Predictive Models through the Study of No-Take Marine Reserves

Abstract:  New Zealand established its first no-take marine reserve more than 25 years ago. Twenty no-take marine reserves have now been created, although few of these are considered comparable. We considered whether existing conceptual models of population and community structure based only on data from exploited systems lack the baseline information of natural states necessary to make accurate predictions for new reserves. Three of the oldest and best-studied reserves are situated on the northeastern coast of New Zealand. These reserves are considered broadly comparable replicates, and research has shown the recovery of previously exploited predator populations and the reestablishment of trophic controls over community structure and productivity. None of the major changes was predicted when the reserves were created. All the observations from and experimental tests of hypotheses in these three ecologically comparable reserves have provided predictive models for future reserves. Recent surveys in newly created reserves, however, suggest that these models are bioregion and habitat specific. In these new reserves the recovery of previously exploited predators was predicted but did not always occur. Where trends were correctly predicted, the speed and amplitude of the changes were not accurately predicted. Research in New Zealand suggests that it is not yet possible to predict explicit outcomes for newly created reserves and less possible to predict detailed results for systems of reserves. Results from a representative system of reserves, including all major habitats within all bioregions and broadly comparable reserves, are needed. Such a system will enable the range and variety of natural ecosystem dynamics to be investigated and provide the controls necessary to measure the effects of exploitation.     

Seven Years of Change Following Liming of Sphagnum Communities in Sector Vii of the Loch Fleet Catchment

In 1986, application of lime within the upper wetland area of sector VII of the Loch Fleet catchment initiated numerous unscheduled small-scale experiments on the vegetation of this heterogeneous terrain. Vegetation changes and erosion were monitored in permanent or relocated plots established in 1987 and 1989 and re-surveyed in 1993, seven years after liming.

The most striking early effect, possibly occurring within a few weeks of lime application, was the death of Sphagnum papillosum carpet in soakways within the 2.5 ha area. Some patches of dead material were washed away, but bare surfaces were generally colonised by vascular plants, notably Juncus bulbosus. Effects in moorland and bog communities with dwarf shurbs were more subtle, involving reduction in Sphagnum cover and expansion of Erica teralix, Molinia caerulea, sedges and Narthecium ossifragum, but little change in the frequency of occurrence of Calluna vulgaris.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

Decline in Endangered Species as an Indication of Anthropic Pressures: The Case of European Mink Mustela lutreola Western Population

Populations of threatened species, especially predators at the top of the food chain, may be affected by anthropic pressures. The endangered western population of European mink Mustela lutreola has shown a large decline over 50% of its natural range. M. lutreola disappeared from northwestern France between 1984 and 1997, and the decline was associated with an increase in mustelid trapping, changes in watercourse quality, and habitat modifications due to agricultural practices. The pattern of decline showed a fragmentation restricting the minks into very small areas. Trapping was the first known cause of mortality. Although feral American mink Mustela vison may compete with autochthonous carnivores, M. lutreola had disappeared from streams before the introduction of the American species, suggesting that competitive interactions were not responsible. Furthermore, American mink has never been found or has remained rare in 62.4% of the area from which M. lutreola has disappeared. During the past 25 years, permanent grassland surfaces were reduced by 40%, whereas fodder culture increased by 470%, causing considerable habitat changes. Furthermore, 55.7% of water courses were classified as being of bad quality or polluted. Therefore, our data suggests that a conjunction of intensive trapping, alterations in water quality and habitat modification was critical for the European mink's decline. Although there are difficulties in ascribing specific cause to distribution changes in a top predator, this decline can be regarded as an indication for anthropic pressures on natural habitats.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.