中国的人口与发展

人口多、耕地少、人均资源相对不足,是中国的基本国情。因此,解决人口与发展之间的矛盾在我国就更为迫切。我们不能等待经济发展来引发人口出生率的自然下降,只能在大力推动社会经济发展的同时,积极推行计划生育,控制人口过快增长。     

蔬菜水果中的新烟碱类农药残留量与人群摄食暴露健康风险评价

新烟碱类农药是目前被广泛用于农业中的一类作用独特、高效广谱的内吸性杀虫剂,它们在蔬菜水果中的残留对人体健康构成威胁。本研究目的是查明北京市场上蔬菜水果中不同新烟碱类农药的残留量,并对人群摄食暴露健康风险进行评估。从北京市场上采集49种蔬菜和24种水果,采用Qu ECh ERS–高效液相色谱串联质谱(HPLC-MS/MS)法测定蔬菜水果中9种新烟碱类农药的含量。利用测得数据和中国居民膳食结构调查资料,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算了不同年龄段人群的日均经口摄入暴露量的概率分布,并采用商值法计算了新烟碱类农药的非致癌风险。结果显示新烟碱类农药普遍存在于北京市场上的蔬菜水果中。49种蔬菜样品中检出7种新烟碱类农药,其中吡虫啉、啶虫脒和噻虫嗪检出率均达100%,噻虫胺、烯啶虫胺、噻虫啉和呋虫胺的检出率分别为47%、14%、10%和4%。24种水果样品中检出5种新烟碱类农药,其中吡虫啉和啶虫脒的检出率均达100%,噻虫嗪、噻虫胺和噻虫啉的检出率分别为54%、13%和4%。不同新烟碱类农药在蔬菜水果中的含量范围为0.01 ng·g~(-1)~126 ng·g~(-1),均未超过我国食品安全国家标准或美国联邦管理条例中的限量值。小部分(约3%)人群因摄食蔬菜水果暴露于新烟碱类农药的非致癌风险商值大于0.1。新烟碱类农药在蔬菜水果中普遍存在,对人体健康有潜在的风险。     

Impacts of the deforestation driven by agribusiness on urban population and economic activity in the Dry Chaco of Argentina

Agriculture expansion oriented to global market has changed the relation between population and deforestation in South America. Actually, the population dynamic in an agricultural frontier turned into a consequence of deforestation (rather than the cause). For Dry Chaco of Argentina during the period 1991–2001, we explore the impacts of deforestation over urban population and employment dynamics in small- and medium-size urban centers. We used deforestation maps from remote sensing data and demographic information from the national census. We found a positive relation between population growth and deforestation. Additionally, urban centers in a context of new and active deforestation stages generate more jobs than in a context of advanced stages. Based on our results, we suggest a boom and bust pattern. Agriculture expansion and deforestation generate transient jobs and benefits, but in a long-run perspective, positive impacts are uncertain.     

东北野生五味子种群特征及其与环境因子的关系

五味子(Schisandra chinensis)是著名的传统中药材,主要分布在我国东北地区. 受过度采摘和毁林开荒等不科学利用方式的影响,野生五味子资源急剧恶化. 沿长白山山脉和小兴安岭山脉调查了17个野生五味子种群,分析了种群特征、环境因子特征及二者的相关关系. 结果表明:①五味子果实质量与纬度呈极显著负相关,基径与海拔呈显著正相关,而种群密度空间分布规律不明显;五味子果实质量、基径和种群密度间不存在显著相关性. ②五味子果实千粒质量和基径平均值分别为(69.05±12.80) g和(0.61±0.13)cm,种群密度大,约50%五味子种群密度达到4级(>1.5～2.0株/m2). ③五味子野生种群采样点的土壤pH(5.34～6.98)呈酸性;w(SOC)(SOC为土壤有机碳)在4.42%～18.47%之间,差异较大;w(TN)、w(TK)和w(TP)平均值分别为0.72%±0.28%、1.74%±0.31%和0.10%±0.03%. ④年降水量在474~928mm之间;年日照时长变化幅度小,在2219.3～2703.7h之间;年均气温和年均相对湿度的平均值分别为(3.46±1.44) ℃和68.9%±2.7%. 主成分分析表明,五味子果实质量受环境因子影响显著,其中年均气温的影响最大,其次是w(TP)、w(TN)、w(SOC)和年降水量;而基径和种群密度受环境因子的影响不显著. 对野生五味子种群生长限制因子的分析结果可为该种群保护、人工栽培与调控奠定理论基础.      

Influence of 1,2,4,5-tetrazine derivatives on growth of bacterial consortium isolated from soil

This article presents the results of laboratory studies of the influence of tetrazine derivatives on the growth kinetic parameters of soil bacteria. 3,6-Dihydrazinotetrazine (DHTz), 3,6- bis(3,5-dimethylpyrazol-1-yl)-dihydro-1,2,4,5-tetrazine (DMPDHT) and N,N′-bis(1,2,4,5-tetrazine-6-(3,5-dimethylpirazylo))hydrazine (BDMPT) were applied. 3,6-Dihydrazinetetrazine had the largest influence on the growth of bacteria, reflected in a significant lengthening of the lag-phase and a decrease in the specific growth rate. Dehydrogenase activity was also determined in bacterial cultures exposed to tetrazine derivatives. Dehydrogenases remained active even at DHTz concentrations of 80 mg · L^?1, which completely inhibited bacterial growth. The compounds studied variously influence the kinetics of growth in the bacterial consortium; at the same time, they undergo biodegradation in soil by autochthonous microflora.     

Ecotoxicological effects of Trichloroethene upon plankton

A case study in an experimental pond was performed to evaluate the ecotoxic effects of Trichloroethene (TRI) upon the population density and productivity of phyto‐ and zooplankton. TRI was continuously released into two pond enclosures over 11 weeks (mean concentrations 1.5 and 7.5 mg/l). The chronic chemical treatment showed distinctive toxic influences upon the biota. Following the high TRI concentration, the phytoplankton density slightly increased; the productivity per single cells, however, was significantly reduced compared to the controls and the low TRI concentration. Cryptophyceae were the most sensitive algae taxa. The density and reproductivity of Daphniae and Phyllopodae decreased by the high TRI concentration. Most of the Rotatoriae were not negatively influenced. With increasing TRI concentrations two different bacteria forms showed a mass development. Small amounts of Trichloroacetic acid were detected in both enclosures as a conversion product of TRI (～3 μg/l after 80 days treatment).     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

辽东湾大凌河口湿地土壤微生物群落分析

土壤微生物对湿地生态系统的物质转化和能量流动具有重要作用,目前对天然湿地的微生物资源及群落结构缺少研究。应用PCR-DGGE技术研究辽东湾大凌河口湿地土壤中的微生物群落结构,并对其群落组成进行分析,结合冗余分析（RDA）方法考察环境因子对微生物群落结构的影响。共设定7个站位采集土壤样品,直接提取样品中微生物的总DNA,以巢式PCR扩增细菌16S rDNA-V3区片段,应用变性梯度凝胶电泳（DGGE）技术分离片段,研究河口区湿地土壤细菌的群落结构。结果表明：辽东湾大凌河口区土壤具有较为丰富的细菌种群,主要包含Proteobacteria、Actinobacteria和Bacteroidetes几大类门,且同一季节采集的样品在聚类分析图上聚类成簇。RDA分析表明,土壤的温度与盐度2个变量分别解释了6.5%、2.3%的土壤细菌群落结构变化,表明大凌河口区土壤的群落结构变化是多种环境因子共同作用的结果,其中温度的影响略大于盐度。     

湖南省大气污染物排放与人体暴露水平研究

基于吸入因子概念,建立了污染物排放造成的人体暴露的计算方法.应用CALPUFF长距离扩散模型和多元回归分析对湖南省17个电厂(24个排放源)的一次细颗粒(PM_2.5)、SO₂和NO_x排放进行了研究.结果表明,在半径500km范围内,PM_2.5、SO₄^2-和NO₃^-的平均吸入因子分别为9.73×10^-6、2.39×10^-6和2.47×10^-6.回归分析表明,PM_2.5的吸入因子与烟囱高度及人口数量有很高的相关性(R²=0.83),SO₄^2--吸入因子与烟囱高度无关,与人口数量有较好的相关性(R²=0.64),而NO₃的吸入因子与烟囱高度、人口数量的相关性较高(R²=0.74).基于回归方程和人口分布地图,对湖南省污染排放的吸入因子进行区划,得到的吸入因子等值图反映了人口分布对吸入因子的影响,可用于对该地区的排放源造成的健康影响进行快速评价.     

中国城乡人口与建设用地的时空变化及其耦合特征研究

1990 年代中后期以来的快速城镇化进程对我国城乡人地关系产生了重要影响,深入分析该过程中的城乡人口与土地变化及其关联特征具有重要意义。论文应用脱钩理论及其相关模型,重点分析2000-2008 年我国城乡建设用地变化及其与城乡人口变化的耦合关系。研究表明：25 个省区城市建设用地增长率高于人口增长率,两者协调性欠佳,呈现弱脱钩状态;农村居民点用地并没有随着农村人口的减少而减少,约一半省区呈现强脱钩状态,11 个省区呈现衰退脱钩状态;城乡人口与建设用地变化的关系可划分为7 种类型,其中有1/3 的省区人口与建设用地变化关系极不协调。论文认为,财税体制和官员晋升/考核机制不完善、城乡规划管控不力、城乡二元制度根深蒂固是造成前述问题的重要原因;新时期协调城乡人口与建设用地变化的可持续途径在于,遵循人口、产业、城镇、社会发展的客观规律,积极推进财税/绩效体制改革,科学划定城市空间增长边界,逐步消除城乡二元结构体制,有序推进城乡土地统筹置换。