Population cycles of the bank vole in the range optimum

Patterns of seasonal and long-term dynamics of the size and structure of the bank vole population were studied in the European subtaiga subzone, the optimum of the species range. The dynamics of this population proved to undergo complex fluctuations with cyclic components, which have periods of one year and about three years. The one-year fluctuations of the population size and structure are accounted for by animal adaptation to seasonal changes in environmental factors. The fluctuations with the three-year quasi-period are determined by intrapopulation density-dependent mechanisms.     

Metal prices and the business cycle

Metal price fluctuations have recently been of interest not only because of their cyclical volatility but also of their interaction with business cycles. A related issue is whether metal prices move together sufficiently to collectively reflect macroeconomic influences. Correlation or the tendency for prices to move together has been termed “comovement”, where the commonality in prices reflects the tendency of commodity markets to respond to common business cycle and trend factors. Metal prices are known to respond to macroeconomic influences and the latter might well explain the common factor which causes them to move together. Our goal is to provide an estimate of the common factor in metal prices and to relate this factor to important macroeconomic influences. The prices we study are for aluminum, copper, tin, lead and zinc; the macroeconomic variables include industrial production, consumer prices, interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. Our results confirm that the common factor in metal prices can be related to such macroeconomic influences.     

几个影响室内土动力试验的重要试验参数

室内土动力试验是研究土动力特性的重要方法之一,其结果受到很多试验参数的影响,其中加载频率、应变速率(加载速率)、加载类型和循环次数是4个重要的试验参数,也是目前国内外的研究热点。总结了国内外关于这4个试验参数对土动力特性影响的研究成果,经过比较分析后认为对于应变速率(加载速率)、加载类型以及循环次数对土动力特性的影响,研究者的认识基本一致,但对有关加载频率对土动力特性的影响却尚持不同的观点。     

On the transmission of the effects of monetary policy to the regions

In the paper the theoretical framework is that of credit rationing theory, the regional differences being examined in terms of both financial markets and the real economy. Empirically the focus is upon regional trends in market conditions and the timelags experienced in the effects of monetary policies in two different regions. The period of time examined is from 1970 to 1978, the changes in the marginal interest on central bank credit issued to the commercial banks being taken as the indicator of monetary policy and data on employment opportunities vacant in the regions as representing market conditions and the delay‐effects of monetary policy. The methods used are those of cross‐correlation analysis.     

Physical,Chemical and Microbiological Water Quality of the Manyas Lake,Turkey

Manyas, also known as the Bird Paradise Lake, is situated near the south-eastern coasts of the Marmara Sea in Turkey. This shallow lake, is a unique natural reserve providing habitat for migratory birds with its rich fauna and plankton species. The objective of this work is to study the ecological and water quality changes resulting from increasing anthropogenic pollution and human intervention on the natural variations of the water level. For this purpose, physical, chemical and microbiological aspects of the aquatic ecosystem in the lake of Manyas are being measured semimonthly since more than a year. After the completion of field measurements associations between different parameters will be searched by means of a water quality model. Results obtained will be used in the sustainable restoration of the lake. In this paper, firstly the nutrient and trophic dynamics of the planktonic ecosystem are associated with the bio-geochemical water cycle in the lake. Secondly, space and time distributions of all physical, chemical and microbiological data are presented and interactions between the nutrient availability and some microscopic communities are discussed.     

水稻土中铁-氮循环耦合体系影响镉活性机理研究

关于铁-氮循环耦合体系对镉(Cd)活性影响的研究目前尚鲜见报道.本文采用淹水培养试验,研究不同硝酸根(NO_3~-)、铵根(NH_4~+)处理条件下,南方典型Cd污染水稻土中铁氧化还原与氮形态转化耦合关系及其对Cd活性影响的机理.结果表明:随着培养时间延长,不同处理的pH值逐渐向7.0靠拢,Eh值由273~321 mV持续下降至118~132 mV,pe+pH值(e-活度的负对数值与H+活度的负对数值之和)从10.62~11.19持续下降至8.55~8.83,土-水体系处于中度还原条件;化学反硝化(Chemodenitrification)和NO_3~-依赖的厌氧铁氧化过程(Microbial NO_3~--dependent FeIIoxidation,NDFO)生成无定形氢氧化铁(Fe(OH)_3(amorp)),其对Cd~(2+)专性吸附及与Cd~(2+)共沉淀降低了有效态Cd浓度,加之pH值上升增大Cd~(2+)在土壤固相表面的吸附量,导致水稻土中Cd活性下降;NH_4~+被Fe(OH)_3(amorp)厌氧氧化(Anaerobic NH_4~+oxidation coupled to FeIII reduction,Feammox)会消耗H+而提高体系的pH值,在一定程度上会降低Cd活性,但其自身与Cd~(2+)对土壤固相表面吸附位点的竞争,可能会更大程度地减少Cd~(2+)在土壤固相表面的吸附量,而导致Cd活性提高.本研究成果可为丰富和拓展水稻土中Cd的生物地球化学理论,并为南方Cd污染农田修复及治理提供科学依据.     

Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model

Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century.     

交替冻融对东北典型土壤腐殖质的影响

以受季节性冻融过程影响显著的东北地区的黑土、暗棕壤和水稻土为例,采用实验室模拟的方法,研究交替冻融循环过程（分别在-20℃和20℃下处理）对土壤腐殖质的影响。研究表明：交替冻融后,黑土和暗棕壤松结态腐殖质质量分数分别增加了39%和28%,HA/FA分别上升了45%和35%;水稻土松结态腐殖质质量分数和HA/FA分别下降了18%和31%。三维荧光结果进一步验证,黑土、暗棕壤在交替冻融中土壤芳香化程度增高,HA/FA上升,而水稻土则相反。黑土和暗棕壤松结态腐殖质和HA/FA升高,主要是微生物分解作用和土壤大团聚体破坏等原因造成,水稻土松结态腐殖质和HA/FA降低,主要是水稻土的缺氧环境造成。     

落叶阔叶树异戊二烯排放研究

采用封闭式采样方法及光离子化气体分析仪直接分析技术测定了１２种北京市主要绿化树种的异戊二烯排放速率。结果表明：法国梧桐,龙爪槐、杨树和柳树为强异戊二烯排放树种;     

A trait-based approach for downscaling complexity in plankton ecosystem models

Although predator–prey cycles can be easily predicted with mathematical models it is only since recently that oscillations observed in a chemostat predator–prey (rotifer–algal) experiment offer an interesting workbench for testing model soundness. These new observations have highlighted the limitations of the conventional modelling approach in correctly reproducing some unexpected characteristics of the cycles. Simulations are improved when changes in algal community structure, resulting from natural selection operating on an assemblage of algal clones differing in competitive ability and defence against rotifer predation, is considered in multi-prey models. This approach, however, leads to extra complexity in terms of state variables and parameters. We show here that multi-prey models with one predator can be effectively approximated with a simpler (only a few differential equations) model derived in the context of adaptive dynamics and obtained with a moment-based approximation. The moment-based approximation has been already discussed in the literature but mostly in a theoretical context, therefore we focus on the strength of this approach in downscaling model complexity by relating it to the chemostat predator–prey experiment. Being based on mechanistic concepts, our modelling framework can be applied to any community of competing species for which a trade-off between competitive ability and resistance to predators can be appropriately defined. We suggest that this approach can be of great benefit for reducing complexity in biogeochemical modelling studies at the basin or global ocean scale.