基于HERA-JANUS模型的空管人误认知分析

空管人误分类分析是空管人误研究的基础。为了对管制员人误进行系统的分类研究,结合空管业务知识和认知心理学理论,对欧洲航空安全局和美国联邦航空局合作开发的HERA-JANUS模型的工作原理和流程进行较详细地分析。运用该方法模型,对我国一起空管不安全事件案例进行分析后得到3个由管制员所产生的人误差错,并对这3个人误差错分别从人误类型、人误认知、相关因素3方面进行详尽的分析研究,最后得出该不安全事件的21项人误结果。结果表明,HERA-JANUS模型能较全面地从深层次分析管制员的人误,其分类形式也便于开展空管人误统计。     

Residents' preparedness and response to the Kalamazoo Tornado

A survey was conducted of individuals residing directly in the path of the tornado that hit Kalamazoo, Michigan, on 13th May 1980. The residents' tornado preparedness and response were examined in an effort to evaluate the city's emergency warning system. The system was adequate for people on the east side of the city and lacking for west side residents. Other factors pertaining to the storm event and human response were also evaluated.     

坡地植物篱生态系统服务研究进展

坡地植物篱因其成本低、生态功能显著,已成为一项重要的坡地改良生物工程技术。梳理坡地植物篱技术相关研究成果,从生态系统服务新视角,阐述其概念与分类、品种选择与空间结构的技术要点,探讨坡地植物篱所具有的支持服务、调节服务、供给服务等,分析当前相关研究存在的问题,提出未来应加强坡地植物篱生态系统服务的理论基础与评估方法体系研究,探究坡地植物篱提供生态系统服务的微观机理,完善其选种、空间配置和管理等综合技术体系,逐步加大试种范围和推广力度。

     

内生创新、人文发展与中国的能源效率

基于内生经济增长理论,本文通过运用面板数据分析方法,重点讨论了内生创新和人文发展对中国能源效率的影响。研究结果表明,无论是全国层面的总体估计还是从东部、中部和西部的分区域估计,内生创新对中国的能源效率都产生着正面影响;人文发展状况总体上对能源效率的提高也具有正面的影响,但是人文发展中人均消费量的提高对能源效率的改善产生着负面的效应。内生创新和人文发展对能源效率的作用在中国东部、中部和西部地区不尽相同,这些作用一致呈现出由东部向中部再向西部地区逐渐递减的分布趋势。人文发展较内生创新而言对能源效率的贡献弹性更加显著。因此,从内生创新和人文发展的角度出发,通过有效措施把能源消费方式转变到依靠技术进步、人口与经济社会协调发展的内涵式消费方式上来,依然是提高中国能源效率的有效策略。     

畜禽养殖排放的雌激素对周边水体环境的影响

环境雌激素是一大类化学物质,它们能够干扰生物体内激素的合成、分泌、转运、活性等,或与生物体内激素结构相似而发挥激素作用,对生物体的生长、繁殖及行为产生不利影响。环境雌激素包括天然雌激素及人工合成类雌激素。随着国内畜禽养殖的规模与数量的不断扩大,养殖场成为了一个很大的环境雌激素的产生源,其环境风险应得到相应的重视。目前对畜禽养殖过程中环境雌激素的产生量以及雌激素进入环境后的迁移转化行为已有很多的研究,包括野外的调查与实验室内机理研究。畜禽养殖过程产生的大量雌激素进入环境后能够被土壤吸附及微生物降解。室内的静态平衡吸附实验、土柱迁移试验及降解研究均表明雌激素进入环境后绝大部分迅速被吸附到土壤颗粒或悬浮胶体、沉积物颗粒上,同时发生转化与生物降解,由此推断其对周边环境中的雌激素贡献很小。然而,野外调查结果却表明实际情况下雌激素的迁移性高于理论期望值。因此,畜禽养殖对周边环境中雌激素的贡献量的大小尚未明确。本论文综述了畜禽养殖过程中环境雌激素的排放情况,结合国内外的调查研究,阐述了畜禽养殖产生的环境雌激素在土壤及水体中的迁移与降解行为,探讨了影响准确评估畜禽养殖排泄物对周边水体中雌激素贡献大小的因子,并提出了今后应开展原位吸附与迁移的实验,重点考虑天然有机质及抗生素等共存物质对雌激素环境行为的影响,建立综合模型来估算不同时期养殖场对周围水环境雌激素的贡献量的建议。     

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive‐species management

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive‐species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost‐effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive‐species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive‐species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty‐four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty‐five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision‐making processes that guide invasive‐species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.     

淮河流域人地系统的自组织分析

本文从系统论的角度出发 ,从组织序变、耗散结构、协同互补、系统演化的动力机制等方面分析了淮河流域人地系统的优化、平衡及有效调控机理 ,为实现淮河流域的可持续发展提供理论依据 ,并提出了提高系统的自组织能力、激活系统的动力机制的战略举措     

Evaluation of the Rural Human Settlement in Shandong Province

Abstract

Taking Shandong Province as the research object, this paper uses the principal component analysis method to evaluate the status of the rural human settlement in Shandong Province. It establishes the evaluation index system of the rural residential environment in Shandong Province, including living environment, economy, infrastructure, public service facilities, and ecological environment, in total five comprehensive index, and 20 secondary indexes. Through measurement and sorting of rural human environment development level of Shandong Province in 2010, the 17 cities are divided into-excellent, good, ordinary, poor-four development areas and are analyzed based on the restriction factor in the development of the region.     

Evaluation of the Rural Human Settlement in Shandong Province

Taking Shandong Province as the research object, this paper uses the principal component analysis method to evaluate the status of the rural human settlement in Shandong Province. It establishes the ev...     

基于REOF方法的辽宁气候舒适度区域特征分析

基于辽宁省50个气象站1964-2008年的气象资料,采用适应东北地区的人体舒适度计算公式及分级标准,得出辽宁省近45年历年人体各舒适度级别日数,使用旋转经验正交分解法(REOF),对辽宁省气候舒适度进行区域划分,并分析了各区域气候舒适度的空间分布特征和变化趋势.结果表明:(1)根据前4个旋转倚载向量场高载荷区分布,将...