MANY RESOURCES,MANY USES: A SYSTEM ANALYSIS APPROACH TO RENEWABLE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Decisionmaking associated with the Nation's 1.7 billion acres of forest and range land has become increasingly complicated because of the rise in competition for resource use and in the awareness of environmental and social effects. This system analysis approach uses four models to synthesize pertinent masses of information into measures of economic, environmental, and social impacts. The system results can be used to help evaluate alternative national programs. The models are:

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MANAGEMENT ASPECTS OF CYCLIC STORAGE OF WATER IN AQUIFER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Most of California's precipitation falls at the wrong place in the wrong season in relation to the water needs. Redistribution and regulation are essential. Aquifer systems – groundwater basins – can provide a share of the future cyclic storage regulation. There are some differences in management concepts in using a full basin in comparison with a partially dewatered basin. Legal, water quality, and physical impacts on aquifer systems, including subsidence, are concerns. Storage may be for the benefit of overlying water users or for distant areas. Extraction during dry periods or recharge methods will require careful planning. Existing rights and uses and equitable treatment of all parties must be assured. Financial compensation may be involved. Changes in methods of operation or degree of self-determination by affected water agencies will require committed watermanship to resolve. Legislation or amendments to organic acts may be needed but much can be accomplished within existing statutes. Environmental impacts which can be avoided by not using large surface storage sites are important. Energy for pumping will be a key consideration. About 40 percent of California is underlain by aquifer systems. This resource offers major potential in overcoming the maldistribution of natural water resources.     

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF LAND USE ON SEWER SERVICE AREA PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The density and distribution of land uses has important consequences for the planning of sewerage systems and for the costs of these systems. This paper examines these consequences using a simplified service area model. The model determines the area to be served by a central waste treatment plant, where alternative on-lot disposal systems are also available. The model is applied to various urban area configurations, which are summarized by their total populations and by their population density distributions. Both minimum regional cost and minimum local cost service area configurations are determined. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to the parameters of the cost and population density functions is assessed. It is found that the model is most sensitive to the parameters of the collection cost function.     

A NONLINEAR MULTILEVEL MODEL FOR REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A nonlinear multilevel transportation model is developed to study large-scale allocations in a water resources system. The model uses a modified transportation matrix formulated with nonlinear cost functions as the basic subregional model and the goal coordination method for multilevel decomposition and optimization of the overall regional system. The model is applied to projected water requirements for Salt Lake County in 1985. Sources of water supply - surface water, ground water, import water, and reuse of reclaimed wastewater on a restricted basis - are available to satisfy water requirements for municipal, industrial, and agricultural sectors in four subregions. The conjugate gradient projection method is used to optimize the first level subregional models having cost functions of the form of C = aX^b, and the second level problem is solved using the conjugate gradient method.     

Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

基于矿井通风三维仿真系统软件的矿用空气幕选型方法

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In the last two decades, several serious accidents at large-scale technological systems that have had grave consequences, such as that at Bhopal, have primarily been attributed to human error. However, further investigations have revealed that humans are not the primary cause of these accidents, but have inherited the problems and difficulties of working with complex systems created by engineers. The operators have to comprehend malfunctions in real time, respond quickly, and make rapid decisions to return operational units to normal conditions, but under these circumstances, the mental workload of operators rises sharply, and a mental workload that is too high increases the rate of error. Therefore, cognivitive human features such as situation awareness (SA)—one of the most important prerequisite for decision-making—should be considered and analyzed appropriately. This paper applys the SA Error Taxonomy methodology to analyze the role of SA in three different accidents: (1) A runaway chemical reaction at Institute, West Virginia killing two employees, injuring eight people, and requiring the evacuation of more than 40,000 residents adjacent to the facility, (2) The ignition of a vapor cloud at Bellwood, Illinois that killed one person, injured two employees, and caused significant business interruption, and (3) An explosion at Ontario, California injuring four workers and caused extensive damage to the facility. In addition, the paper presents certain requirements for cognitive operator support system development and operator training under abnormal situations to promote operators’ SA in the process industry.     

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