雨凇环境影响因子研究与应用——以湖南省为例

运用概率论和数理统计方法,基于湖南气象观测资料、NCEP资料及地理信息资料,分析了气象因子、地理因子对雨凇天气形成的影响,揭示了各影响因子的临界影响点。进而分析了主要影响因子位于不同影响点时其它因子对雨淞天气形成的作用,在此基础上,研制了基于气象要素因子、地理因子的雨凇日数学模型。选取平均连续雨凇日数、年平均雨凇日数、雨凇最长持续时间等3项与雨凇日数有关的气候指标对模型模拟结果进行了检验,结果表明模型模拟结果与实际观测结果相关性高,均值差异小。雨凇日模型已被用于精细化的雨凇气候区划。     

基于稳健统计的土壤环境背景值研究及应用

使用稳健统计方法中的位置估计量和尺度估计量对我国某受到人为干扰的地下水水源地C层土壤重金属的背景值进行了研究.结果表明,稳健统计方法对样本中的异常值有较高的耐抗性,计算结果与常规方法相近,因而适用于某些人为干扰地区的土壤环境背景值研究.对该水源地背景值的计算表明,该地区C层土壤Cu,Pb,Cd,Cr,As和Hg的背景值中心分别为21.2,32.5,0.103,60.3,11.0和0.012 mg/kg,其中w(Pb),w(Cd)和w(As)高于山东省平均值. 6种重金属的阈值分别为29.0,43.7,0.143,93.5,21.0和0.080 mg/kg,均小于全国平均上限值,但其中Pb,Cr,As的阈值高于土壤环境质量一级标准. 基于该地区背景值的污染累积指数评价表明,该地区主要重金属污染物为Pb和Hg,主要污染区为污水沟渠周边,污染深度为1～3 m.      

AN EMPIRICALLY‐BASED SEQUENTIAL GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN PROCEDURE1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using a simple, empirically‐based model that makes efficient use of available information has been developed for designing a ground water monitoring well network. A moving plume is described by siting wells in a sequential manner, relying upon two‐dimensional concentration data obtained from previously installed wells to determine the locations of future wells. Data sets from two well known, densely monitored natural gradient tracer studies were used to test the procedure. Plumes defined by all information in the original networks were compared to those defined by reduced networks designed by the new procedure. The new procedure tracked the plumes using only a portion of that information. The new procedure could have reduced the number of wells in the original tests by about 50 percent without appreciable loss of plume information as measured by plume location and extent and by tracer mass.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

重庆市大气污染物的空间统计分析

利用空间统计分析方法(spatial statistics analysis),借助GIS,分析了重庆市3种主要大气污染物TSP,SO₂和NO_x质量浓度在空间上的分布特点.研究表明,在"九五"期间和2002年2个时期,重庆市大气污染物在空间上均呈不均衡分布.整体上,SO₂的空间自相关性很强,属集中分布模式;TSP的空间自相关性较弱,属于随机分布模式;NO_x处于二者之间.局部相关性分析表明,大部分区县的大气污染物之间相关性较弱.此外,利用缓冲区和内插浓度表面法分析了2个时期的污染物质量浓度随离行政中心距离变化的趋势,发现ρ(TSP)和ρ(SO₂)在各地带内均有明显削减,而ρ(NO_x)削减不显著;ρ(SO₂)和ρ(NO_x)随距行政中心距离增大下降,但ρ(TSP)随距离增大而增加.3种污染物质量浓度都在离行政中心50～60 km的地带发生明显变化,由此得出目前重庆市大气污染物空间分布的特征距离为50～60km.      

RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS IN A MULTIOBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK1

ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes advances made in risk-based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). (Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme-event risk function f₄(*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f₄(*); the sensitivity of f₄(*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme-event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f₄(*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f₄(*), distribution-free estimates of f₄(*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research directions.     

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF NORTH CAROLINA SANITARY LANDFILLS1

ABSTRACT: Ground and surface water quality monitoring data from 71 municipal sanitary landfills in North Carolina were analyzed to determine the nature and extent of current contamination problems and identify any common characteristics associated with this contamination. A total of 322 surface and 411 ground water quality records were analyzed using the SAS data system. Almost all the landfill records included inorganic and heavy metal analyses while approximately half of the records also included organic analyses by CC/MS. Our analysis indicates that landfills are having measurable impacts on ground and surface water quality, but these impacts may not be as severe as is commonly assumed. Statistically significant increases were detected in the average concentrations in ground water and downstream surface water samples when compared to upstream surface water samples. The largest percentage increases were observed for zinc, turbidity, total organic carbon, conductivity, total dissolved solids, and lead. Violations of ground water quality standards for heavy metals and hazardous organic compounds were detected at 53 percent of the landfills where adequate data existed. The moat common heavy metal violations were for lead (18 percent), chromium (18 percent), zinc (6 percent), cadmium (6 percent), and arsenic (6 percent) (percentage of landfills violating shown in parenthesis). The organic compounds that appear to pose the greatest threat to ground water are the chlorinated solvents (8 percent), petroleum derived hydrocarbons (8 percent), and pesticides (5 percent). A comparison of monitoring data from sanitary landfills and secondary wastewater treatment plants suggests that the concentrations of heavy metal and organic pollutants discharged to surface waters from these two sources are similar.     

城市污水测算统计方法

当今城市生活污水统计以人口与供水量为依据测算 ,难以满足治理和管理工作需要。在城市污水处理场和污水在线监控系统建设快速发展条件下建立以排污口监测统计为基础的城市污水统计系统 ,能够较真实反映生活污水质量和分布 ,满足环境管理工作需要。