新能源汽车需求市场培育的政策取向:供给侧抑或需求侧

政策支持是促进新能源汽车消费市场等商业化条件成熟的重要手段。近年来,中央和一些地方政府在新能源汽车需求市场培育的"供给侧"和"需求侧"都先后出台了相应的市场培育政策。"供给侧"和"需求侧"的政策功能与效果不完全相同,地方政府在选择和应用新能源汽车需求培育政策时面临着诸多困惑。论文尝试将基尼系数分解法引入到新能源汽车需求市场"供给侧"和"需求侧"政策实施效果的区域差异分析中,分析了我国培育新能源汽车消费市场培养"供给侧"和"需求侧"政策取向的分布情况以及现阶段政策取向所面临的困惑,应用我国新能源汽车试点推广城市数据开展了实证研究。结果表明,"供给侧"政策着力于改善新能源汽车消费市场供给体系的质量和效率,为需求市场持续发展提供驱动力量;"需求侧"政策着力于激发新能源汽车消费的积极性和购买能力,为需求市场持续发展提供拉动力量。"供给侧"和"需求侧"政策在不同收入水平区域试点城市中的实施效果存在差异,高收入区域试点城市"供给侧"和"需求侧"政策都有着明显效果,但是"供给侧"政策效果更为显著;中等收入区域试点城市"需求侧"政策效果十分显著,"供给侧"政策效果相对较弱;收入稍低区域试点城市则以"供给侧"政策效果更为显著,"需求侧"政策效果相对较弱。我国新能源汽车市场培育在"供给侧"和"需求侧"政策取向上应因地制宜,各有侧重点。     

基于SSM方法的黑龙江省入境旅游产业结构分析

以相关入境旅游统计数据为基础,运用转移—份额分析法,对2002—2007年黑龙江省入境旅游产业结构进行了分析。结果表明,黑龙江省入境旅游产业发展速度高于全国水平,产业结构较好,但总体竞争力不强。在此基础上,针对产业中的优势部门、增长部门和劣势部门提出了相应的对策和建议。     

Variable-density flow in heterogeneous porous media — Laboratory experiments and numerical simulations

Konz, M., Ackerer, P., Younes, A., Huggenberger, P., Zechner, E., 2009a. 2D Stable Layered Laboratory-scale Experiments for Testing Density-coupled Flow Models. Water Resources Research, 45. doi:10.1029/2008WR007118., a series of laboratory-scale 2D tank experiments were conducted and accurately simulated for density driven flow problems on homogeneous porous media. In the present work, we extended the numerical and experimental studies to heterogeneous problems. The heterogeneous porous medium was constructed with a low permeability zone in the centre of the tank and had well-defined parameters and boundary conditions. Concentration distributions were measured in high resolution using a photometric method and an image analysis technique. The numerical model used for the simulations was based on efficient advanced approximations for both spatial and temporal discretizations. The Method Of Lines (MOL) was used to allow higher-order temporal discretization. Three different boundary conditions, corresponding to different localizations of the inflow and the outflow openings at the opposite edges of the tank, were applied to investigate different flow scenarios in the heterogeneous porous medium flow tank. Simulation results of all three density coupled experiments revealed a density-dependent behavior of dispersion. Thus, a reduction of dispersivites was required to obtain a good matching of the experimental data. The high quality of the experiments enabled a detailed testing of numerical variable-density flow codes under heterogeneous conditions. Therefore, the experiments were considered to be reliable benchmark tests.     

基于模糊优选和CRITIC法的电力碳排放权区域初始分配——以华东电网区域为例

为科学、合理分配电力行业碳排放权,文章综合考虑公平、效率和可持续发展原则,构建了电力碳排放权分配体系,并利用CRITIC法确定指标权重,运用模糊优选法计算碳排放权初始分配比例,结果表明:单位地区生产总值电耗是最主要的影响因素,公平原则下的电力碳排放量、电力能源消费总量和火力发电量也是重要的影响因素;碳排放量问题是复杂的系统问题,碳排放权初始分配要综合考虑公平性原则、效率性原则和可持续原则。最后,为达到和谐稳定的碳排放权分配方案,希望在以后的研究中加强和谐型评判与改进方法。     

我国环保产业研究现状分析——基于宏观视角的文献述评

通过文献研究法,基于宏观视角对我国环保产业研究成果进行梳理。当前,我国的环保产业研究成果初具规模,研究重点在于环保产业的现状分析、问题探讨以及对策研究,包括环保产业各主体间博弈均衡、环保产业的技术支持、投融资机制等内容。未来环保产业研究应注意环保产业竞争力的科学评价、环保产业主体间的良性互动及其合力的达成以及环保技术评价和兑现。     

基于三次指数平滑模型的雾霾天气分析与预测

通过建立三次指数平滑模型,分析2002~2012年我国二氧化硫和烟尘的排放量以及每年在环境污染治理方面的投资总额等指标,得出未来3年内我国雾霾天气仍会频发的结论,并究其原因进行了分析。     

火灾探测的原理和方法(下)

简述了火灾现象的物理特征、火灾探测的基本原理并对火灾探测算法的建立及发展作了介绍。对产生火灾误报警的原因进行了分析，指出要改善火灾探测的准确性，缺少的不是思路和技术，而是火灾科学基础研究的积累。     

河流水环境质量综合评价方法比较研究

提出了对河流水环境质量综合评价方法的基本要求，对水环境质量评价方法的现状进行了研究，并通过对各种方法的 比较，探讨了今后水环境质量综合评价方法的发展方向。     

REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT BY THE GENERALIZED REDUCED GRADIENT METHOD1

ABSTRACT: A river basin-wide water quality management system is considered. The river receives thermal as well as organic wastes. At-source treatment of these pollutants is imposed to control the basin-wide water quality. The related water quality standards are: the minimum DO concentration, the maximum allowable BOD concentration, the maximum allowable stream temperature, and the allowable rise in stream temperature. The general dynamic mathematical model representing water quality in streams and the thermal effects on BOD and DO concentrations is presented. The model is highly nonlinear in nature. The optimal management problem involving the model is solved by a recently developed nonlinear propgramming technique - the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) method. Comparison of results obtained by the GRG method vs. dynamic programming, and of results using a more realistic mathematical model vs. a simple model are presented. The analysis procedure can be applied to designing new and examining existing water quality programs, and to study the influence of alternate policies and constraints.     

A HYBRID OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTED PARAMETERS IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.