Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge

While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran.     

Predicting non-carcinogenic hazard quotients of heavy metals in pepper (Capsicum annum L.) utilizing electromagnetic waves

• There was significant absorption of heavy metals by the pepper in contaminated soils. • The target hazard quotient (THQ) indices followed the order of Pb>Zn>>Cd » Ni. • Relationships exist between contaminated plants and electromagnetic wave. • PCA and random search can select the main spectra and predict THQ for each element. Given the tendency of heavy metals to accumulate in soil and plants, the purpose of this study was to determine the contamination levels of Cd, Ni, Pb, and Zn on peppers (leaves and fruit) grown in contaminated soils in industrial centers. For this purpose, we measured the uptake of the four heavy metals by peppers grown in the heavy metal contaminated soils throughout the four growth stages: two-leaf, growth, flowering, and fruiting, and calculated various vegetation indices to evaluate the heavy metal contamination potentials. Electromagnetic waves were also applied for analyzing the responses of the target plants to various heavy metals. Based on the relevant spectral bands identified by principal component analysis (PCA) and random search methods, a regression method was then employed to determine the most optimal spectral bands for estimating the target hazard quotient (THQ). The THQ was found to be the highest in the plants contaminated by Pb (THQ= 62) and Zn (THQ= 5.07). The results of PCA and random search indicated that the spectra at the bands of b₅₇₀, b₆₅₀, and b₇₆₀ for Pb, b₄₀₀ and b₁₀₃₀ for Ni, b₄₀₀ and b₈₈₀ for Cd, and b₅₆₀, b₉₁₀, and b₁₀₅₀ for Zn were the most optimal spectra for assessing THQ. Therefore, in future studies, instead of examining the amount of heavy metals in plants by chemical analysis in the laboratory, the responses of the plants to the electromagnetic waves in the identified bands can be readily investigated in the field based on the established correlations.     

AutoRAPID: A Model for Prompt Streamflow Estimation and Flood Inundation Mapping over Regional to Continental Extents

This article couples two existing models to quickly generate flow and flood‐inundation estimates at high resolutions over large spatial extents for use in emergency response situations. Input data are gridded runoff values from a climate model, which are used by the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) model to simulate flow rates within a vector river network. Peak flows in each river reach are then supplied to the AutoRoute model, which produces raster flood inundation maps. The coupled tool (AutoRAPID) is tested for the June 2008 floods in the Midwest and the April‐June 2011 floods in the Mississippi Delta. RAPID was implemented from 2005 to 2014 for the entire Mississippi River Basin (1.2 million river reaches) in approximately 45 min. Discretizing a 230,000‐km² area in the Midwest and a 109,500‐km² area in the Mississippi Delta into thirty‐nine 1° by 1° tiles, AutoRoute simulated a high‐resolution (~10 m) flood inundation map in 20 min for each tile. The hydrographs simulated by RAPID are found to perform better in reaches without influences from unrepresented dams and without backwater effects. Flood inundation maps using the RAPID peak flows vary in accuracy with F‐statistic values between 38.1 and 90.9%. Better performance is observed in regions with more accurate peak flows from RAPID and moderate to high topographic relief.     

建筑废弃物的回收原理与方法研究

由于社会和经济因素的要求,当今的建筑生命周期要最大程度地完成圆形的循环过程,即重新使用拆建物料制造新产品。循环经济的大背景下,承建商通过坚实的理论基础,采用分层次的方法来进行建筑废弃物的管理。文中总结了两种方法的优点和缺点,进行了混合回收与源头分离两种方法的比较研究。最值得注意的是两个不同的意向方案:绿色星球计划和ICC-ESSAVETM方案。突出的可持续认证和设计方案及绿色星球计划侧重的能源效率模型时常被繁重调试系统的LEED所青睐。一旦被国际编码理事会所批准,这些文件可以在LEED的评分系统下或绿色星球计划中,帮助其寻找资格评分。文章最后分析了建筑废弃物的回收流程,并得出结论:高达95%的建筑和拆迁建筑废弃物都可以回收;回收相比垃圾填埋更节省资金;源头分离较混合回收需要更多的管理和劳动力,但能获得更大的经济利益;承建商应该组织和管理现场的回收工作。     

区域环境空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则

为响应公众服务和环境管理对环境空气质量预报的迫切需求,中国环境监测总站率先在京津冀区域开展了区域环境空气质量预报测试。结合目前积累的预报经验和国内外相关研究,探索出区域空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则,讨论了客观订正环节中大气扩散条件、污染源排放、物理化学过程和空气质量变化规律的分析方法及系统建立、结果确定、天气控制形势分析和信息表述等基本原则,以期为各地开展环境空气质量预报提供技术参考。     

印染生化尾水反渗透深度处理工艺膜污染成因分析

为阐明印染生化尾水反渗透膜处理时膜污染的成因，使用小试装置进行40h膜污染实验，研究膜污染速率、污染程度以及可逆性，同时应用扫描电子显微镜一EDS能谱仪、傅里叶变换红外光谱仪、电感耦合等离子发射光谱仪、总有机碳测定仪等仪器对进水水质、膜表面污染物的形态和组成等进行表征。结果表明，膜表面主要是碳酸钙无机污染和钙与有机物络合污染，无机污染占主导，且可逆性差，有机污染物主要含有--OH和～c-c官能团；单一去除废水中有机物污染物（TOC去除率达88％）对膜污染缓解不明显，但钙离子的去除可显著缓解膜污染，膜通量可增加72．6％；同时去除有机物和钙离子，膜通量可增加80．4％。     

印染生化尾水反渗透深度处理工艺膜污染成因分析简

为阐明印染生化尾水反渗透膜处理时膜污染的成因，使用小试装置进行40 h膜污染实验，研究膜污染速率、污染程度以及可逆性，同时应用扫描电子显微镜-EDS能谱仪、傅里叶变换红外光谱仪、电感耦合等离子发射光谱仪、总有机碳测定仪等仪器对进水水质、膜表面污染物的形态和组成等进行表征。结果表明，膜表面主要是碳酸钙无机污染和钙与有机物络合污染，无机污染占主导，且可逆性差，有机污染物主要含有—OH和—CC官能团；单一去除废水中有机物污染物（TOC去除率达88%）对膜污染缓解不明显，但钙离子的去除可显著缓解膜污染，膜通量可增加72.6%；同时去除有机物和钙离子，膜通量可增加80.4%。     

Reliability and availability modeling of Subsea Xmas tree system using Dynamic Bayesian network with different maintenance methods

Subsea Xmas tree is a vital equipment for offshore oil and gas development. Aiming at the fault mode of subsea Christmas tree system under production conditions, the fault tree of subsea tree system was established, which was transformed into Dynamic Bayesian network, and the reliability and availability of subsea tree system with different repair states are quantitatively analyzed. In this paper, the DBNs are partially verified by the method based on three axes. The results show that the reliability of subsea vertical tree system is slightly higher than that of subsea horizontal tree system. After repair and maintenance, the performance of subsea tree system has been significantly improved, and the improvement of the system performance by preventive maintenance is more obvious. Compared with the perfect repair, the performance of the system with imperfect repair is not significantly reduced. Compared with perfect repair & preventive maintenance, the performance of the system with imperfect repair & preventive maintenance is slightly reduced. In addition, the influence of failure rates and degradation probability on reliability and availability is analyzed. By comparing the influence of failure rates on the system performance of non-maintenance and maintenance, it is found that the change of failure rates has the greatest influence on the reliability and the least influence on the availability of perfect repair & preventive maintenance. By comparing the performance of each component in the subsea tree system, it is found that the failure rates has the most obvious influence on the chock module, and gate valve and tree cap have the most significant influence on the reliability of the system. In order to improve the reliability of subsea tree system, it is necessary to improve the reliability of chock module, gate valve and tree cap.     

In-depth approach for identifying crash causation patterns and its implications for pedestrian crash prevention

IntroductionA pedestrian crash occurs due to a series of contributing factors taking effect in an antecedent-consequent order. One specific type of antecedent-consequent order is called a crash causation pattern. Understanding crash causation patterns is important for clarifying the complicated growth of a pedestrian crash, which ultimately helps recommend corresponding countermeasures. However, previous studies lack an in-depth investigation of pedestrian crash cases, and are insufficient to propose a representative picture of causation patterns. Method: In this study, pedestrian crash causation patterns were discerned by using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM). One hundred and forty-two pedestrian crashes were investigated, and five pedestrian pre-crash scenarios were extracted. Then, the crash causation patterns in each pre-crash scenario were analyzed; and finally, six distinct patterns were identified. Accordingly, 17 typical situations corresponding to these causation patterns were specified as well. Results: Among these patterns, the pattern related to distracted driving and the pattern related to an unexpected change of pedestrian trajectory contributed to a large portion of the total crashes (i.e., 27% and 24%, respectively). Other patterns also played an important role in inducing a pedestrian crash; these patterns include the pattern related to an obstructed line of sight caused by outside objects (9%), the pattern that involves reduced visibility (13%), and the pattern related to an improper estimation of the gap distance between the vehicle and the pedestrian (10%). The results further demonstrated the inter-heterogeneity of a crash causation pattern, as well as the intra-heterogeneity of pattern features between different pedestrian pre-crash scenarios. Conclusions and practical applications: Essentially, a crash causation pattern might involve different contributing factors by nature or dependent on specific scenarios. Finally, this study proposed suggestions for roadway facility design, roadway safety education and pedestrian crash prevention system development.     

Human–wildlife coexistence in a changing world

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) is a key topic in conservation and agricultural research. Decision makers need evidence-based information to design sustainable management plans and policy instruments. However, providing objective decision support can be challenging because realities and perceptions of human–wildlife interactions vary widely between and within rural, urban, and peri-urban areas. Land users who incur costs through wildlife argue that wildlife-related losses should be compensated and that prevention should be subsidized. Supporters of human–wildlife coexistence policies, such as urban-dwelling people, may not face threats to their livelihoods from wildlife. Such spatial heterogeneity in the cost and benefits of living with wildlife is germane in most contemporary societies. This Special Section features contributions on wildlife-induced damages that range from human perspectives (land use, psychology, governance, local attitudes and perceptions, costs and benefits, and HWC and coexistence theory) to ecological perspectives (animal behavior). Building on current literature and articles in this section, we developed a conceptual model to help frame HWC and coexistence dimensions. The framework can be used to determine damage prevention implementation levels and approaches to HWC resolution. Our synthesis revealed that inter- and transdisciplinary approaches and multilevel governance approaches can help stakeholders and institutions implement sustainable management strategies that promote human–wildlife coexistence.