大气环境数据分析预测方法对比研究

以西安市2006年9月27日至2008年5月3日每日的SO2平均浓度时间序列为例,应用时间序列分析对前555个数据进行拟合,得到合适的时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,2);利用神经网络中的BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对同样的样本进行训练,用这三种方法对2008年4月4日至2008年5月3日的SO2日均浓度值进行了预测,并用同样的方法分析预测了同期PM10日均浓度值,最后比较了它们的预测效果。结果表明,利用这三种方法进行浓度预测都是可行的,其中RBF神经网络法的预测误差最小,效果最好。     

The impact of nitrogen deposition on acid grasslands in the Atlantic region of Europe

A survey of 153 acid grasslands from the Atlantic biogeographic region of Europe indicates that chronic nitrogen deposition is changing plant species composition and soil and plant-tissue chemistry. Across the deposition gradient (2-44 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) grass richness as a proportion of total species richness increased whereas forb richness decreased. Soil C:N ratio increased, but soil extractable nitrate and ammonium concentrations did not show any relationship with nitrogen deposition. The above-ground tissue nitrogen contents of three plant species were examined: Agrostis capillaris (grass), Galium saxatile (forb) and Rhytidiadelphus squarrosus (bryophyte). The tissue nitrogen content of neither vascular plant species showed any relationship with nitrogen deposition, but there was a weak positive relationship between R. squarrosus nitrogen content and nitrogen deposition. None of the species showed strong relationships between above-ground tissue N:P or C:N and nitrogen deposition, indicating that they are not good indicators of deposition rate.     

Temporal patterns of atmospheric mercury species in northern Mississippi during 2011–2012: Influence of sudden population swings

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) and particulate bound mercury (PBM) were measured on the University of Mississippi campus from July 2011 to June 2012. It is believed to be the first time that concentrations of atmospheric mercury species have been documented in northern Mississippi, and at a location with relatively large and sudden swings in population. The mean concentration (±1SD) of GEM was 1.54 ± 0.32 ng m⁻³; levels were lower and generally more stable during the winter (1.48 ± 0.22) and spring (1.46 ± 0.27) compared with the summer (1.56 ± 0.32) and fall (1.63 ± 0.42). Mean concentrations for GOM and PBM were 3.87 pg m⁻³ and 4.58 pg m⁻³, respectively; levels tended to be highest in the afternoon and lowest in the early morning hours. During the fall and spring academic semesters concentrations and variability of GOM and PBM both increased, possibly from vehicle exhaust. There were moderate negative correlations with wind speed (all species) and humidity (GOM and PBM). Backward air mass trajectory modeling for the ten highest peaks for each mercury species revealed that the majority of these events occurred from air masses that passed through the northern continental US region. Overall, this study illustrates the complexity of temporal fluctuations of airborne mercury species, even in a small town environment.     

Growth and Foliar Nitrogen Status of Four Plant Species Exposed to Atmospheric Ammonia

A chamber study was conducted to evaluate the growth response and leaf nitrogen (N) status of four plant species exposed to continuous ammonia (NH₃) for 12 weeks (wk). This was intended to evaluate appropriate plant species that could be used to trap discharged NH₃ from the exhaust fans in poultry feeding operations before moving off-site. Two hundred and forty bare-root plants of four species (Juniperus virginiana (red cedar), Gleditsia triacanthos var. inermis (thornless honey locust), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), and Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass) were transplanted into 4- or 8-L polyethylene pots and grown in four environmentally controlled chambers. Plants placed in two of the four chambers received continuous exposure to anhydrous NH₃ at 4 to 5 ppm while plants in another two chambers received no NH₃. In each of the four chambers, 2 to 4 plants per species received no fertilizer while the rest of the plants were fertilized with a 100 ppm solution containing 21% N, 7% phosphorus, and 7% potassium. The results showed that honey locust was the fastest-growing species. The superior growth of honey locust among all species was also supported by its total biomass, root, and root dry matter (DM) weights. For all species there was a trend for plants exposed to NH₃ to have greater leaf DM than their non-exposed counterparts at 6 (43.0 vs. 30.8%; P = 0.09) and 12 wk (47.9 vs. 36.6%; P = 0.07), and significantly greater (P ≤ 0.05) leaf N content at 6 (6.44 vs. 3.67%) and 12 wk (7.05 vs. 3.51%) when exposed to NH₃. Numerically greater leaf DM due to NH₃ exposure was also consistently measured in poplar at both sampling periods. Hybrid poplar, as well as honey locust and reed canary grass, deposited 1.5 to 2-fold greater N in their leaves than red cedar tissues as a result of NH₃ exposure compared to non-exposed plants. Regardless of the effect of NH₃ on foliar color and damage score of the plants, the increase of foliar N content (g 100 g^?1 of fresh foliage weight) after NH₃ exposure at 6 and 12 wk was 0.45 and 0.87 for grass,1.25 and 1.34 for locust, and 2.67 and 6.09 for poplar. However, only honey locust likely benefited from ambient NH₃ as indicated by its consistent leaf color quality and lower damage score, compared with other species that were adversely affected by atmospheric NH₃.     

Air quality assessment by tree bark biomonitoring in urban, industrial and rural environments of the Rhine Valley: PCDD/Fs, PCBs and trace metal evidence

Tree barks were used as biomonitors to evaluate past atmospheric pollution within and around the industrial zones of Strasbourg (France) and Kehl (Germany) in the Rhine Valley. The here estimated residence time for trace metals, PCBs and PCDD/Fs in tree bark is >10 years. Thus, all pollution observed by tree bark biomonitoring can be older than 10 years. The PCB baseline concentration (sum of seven PCB indicators (Σ₇PCB_ind)) determined on tree barks from a remote area in the Vosges mountains is 4 ng g⁻¹ and corresponds to 0.36 × 10⁻³ ng toxic equivalent (TEQ) g⁻¹ for the dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs). The northern Rhine harbor suffered especially from steel plant, waste incinerator and thermal power plant emissions. The polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran (PCDD/Fs) concentrations analyzed in tree barks from this industrial area range between 392 and 1420 ng kg⁻¹ dry-weight (dw) corresponding to 3.9 ng TEQ_PCDD/Fs kg⁻¹ to 17.8 ng TEQ_PCDD/Fs kg⁻¹, respectively. Highest PCDD/F values of 7.2 ng TEQ kg⁻¹ to 17.8 ng TEQ kg⁻¹ have been observed close to and at a distance of <2 km southwest of the chemical waste incinerator. However, very close to this incinerator lowest TEQ dioxin-like PCB (TEQ_DL-PCB) values of 0.006 ng TEQ g⁻¹ have been found. On the other hand close to and southwest and northeast of the steel plant the values are comparatively higher and range between 0.011 ng TEQ g⁻¹ and 0.026 ng TEQ g⁻¹. However, even stronger Σ₇PCB_ind enrichments have been observed at a few places in the city center of Kehl, where ΣDL-PCB values of up to 0.11 ng TEQ g⁻¹ have been detected. These enrichments, however, are the result of ancient pollutions since recent long-term measurements at the same sites indicate that the atmospheric PCB concentrations are close to baseline. Emissions from an old landfill of waste and/or great fires might have been the reasons of these PCB enrichments. Other urban environments of the cities of Kehl and Strasbourg show significantly lower Σ₇PCB_ind concentrations. They suffer especially from road and river traffic and have typically Σ₇PCB_ind concentrations ranging from 11 ng g⁻¹ to 29 ng g⁻¹. The PCB concentration of 29 ng g⁻¹ has been found in tree bark close to the railway station of Strasbourg. Nevertheless, the corresponding TEQ_DL-PCB are low and range between 0.2 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹ and 7 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹. Samples collected near road traffic are enriched in Fe, Sb, Sn and Pb. Cd enrichments were found close to almost all types of industries. Rural environments not far from industrial sites suffered from organic and inorganic pollution. In this case, TEQ_DL-PCB values may reach up to 58 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹ and the corresponding V, Cr, Co, Ni, and Cd concentrations are comparatively high.     

Comparison of forest edge effects on throughfall deposition in different forest types

This study examined the influence of distance to the forest edge, forest type, and time on Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺ throughfall deposition in forest edges. The forests were dominated by pedunculate oak, silver birch, or Corsican/Austrian pine, and were situated in two regions of Flanders (Belgium). Along transects, throughfall deposition was monitored at distances of 0-128 m from the forest edge. A repeated-measures analysis demonstrated that time, forest type, and distance to the forest edge significantly influenced throughfall deposition of the ions studied. The effect of distance to the forest edge depended significantly on forest type in the deposition of Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻: the edge effect was significantly greater in pine stands than in deciduous birch and oak stands. This finding supports the possibility of converting pine plantations into oak or birch forests in order to mitigate the input of nitrogen and potentially acidifying deposition.     

河北及周边地区霾污染特征的模拟研究

应用MM5-Models-3/CMAQ空气质量模拟系统对河北及周边地区进行了区域尺度的模拟,并选取石家庄、邢台、北京、天津、太原、郑州6个代表性城市分析了该地区霾污染特征.首先,通过气象观测数据对2001—2010年10年间的霾天气进行了识别,就统计结果来看,该地区霾污染的季节变化非常显著,冬季最为严重,其次是夏秋季;5月份的发生频率则最低,其次是4月和6月.选取霾污染较为严重的2007年12月进行了模拟,在模拟时段内,霾日的平均PM2.5浓度是非霾日的1.6～3.1倍,霾的发生有很明显的区域同步性.霾日PM2.5的成分也有显著变化,硫酸盐、硝酸盐等二次颗粒物的百分比含量有明显的增加,说明该地区霾的出现与二次颗粒物的形成有非常密切的关系.     

基于裂区设计的大气能见度拟合及预测模型

通过收集分析广州能见度及影响因子数据的特征,使用R-project统计软件作为建模工具,采用多层裂区实验构建模型基本框架,选择影响显著的因子进行变量变形处理,对年、月、日、小时的数据特征进行层层分割设计,并在对应层次引入代表时间含义的虚拟变量以提高模型的表征水平,加入二次项、交叉项等提高模型的精度,得到拟合度高、适用性强的能见度拟合及预测模型。     

能见度与PM2.5浓度关系及其分布特征

利用相对湿度、能见度和PM_(2.5)质量浓度观测数据,针对不同相对湿度下,建立了消光系数与PM_(2.5)质量浓度之间线性关系,并分析了相关关系的全国分布特征.结果表明,我国中东部大部分地区在一定相对湿度区间内均可建立线性相关关系,而且相关性较好,相对湿度40%～90%区间内的平均相关系数高于0. 75,其中北京相关系数高达0. 9.北京、长三角和四川等地的PM_(2.5)单位质量消光效率在同等相对湿度下明显大于其他地区.不同地区湿度对能见度影响程度不同,北京等地在相对湿度大于90%时相对湿度对能见度作用大于PM_(2.5),而广州在相对湿度大于80%时相对湿度的作用明显增强.利用能见度反算北京地区PM_(2.5)浓度可知,1980～1996年,PM_(2.5)浓度年际变化不大,受采暖方式影响冬季PM_(2.5)浓度显著较高; 1997～2009年呈现缓慢下降趋势; 2010～2012年呈现上升趋势. 1980年以来,全国的PM_(2.5)浓度整体呈上升的趋势,尤其是华北地区,PM_(2.5)浓度始终高于全国其他地区.     

大气扰动下人－机系统建模与仿真

建立了人、机、大气环境扰动的动力学模型。形成一个便于仿真计算的人－机－环境系统模型，针对驾驶员完成俯仰跟踪任务，研究了大气扰动对驾驶员控制特性和人－机闭环特性的影响。