高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。     

New directions for exploring the consequences of proactive behaviors: Introduction to the special issue

This special issue introduces new directions for exploring the consequences of proactive behaviors. The authors summarize the new scopes of consequences, new social contexts, and new methods in this exploration. They also identify several limitations of the existing literature and call for more future research in this stream.     

Are servant leaders appreciated? An investigation of how relational attributions influence employee feelings of gratitude and prosocial behaviors

Multisource data collected at three time phases were used in investigating when servant leadership elicits gratitude and then promotes prosocial behaviors. We tested a moderated mediation model, contending that relational attributions moderate the relationship between servant leadership and gratitude, and then gratitude sequentially predicts interpersonal citizenship behaviors and upward voice. As hypothesized, when employees do not highly rely on relational attributions for servant leadership, they feel more gratitude and subsequently engage in more interpersonal citizenship behaviors and upward voice than the employees who rely on relational attributions to explain their interactions with the leader. The sequential indirect effect from servant leadership to upward voice via gratitude and then interpersonal citizenship behaviors was significant when relational attributions are low rather than high.     

Theoretical pressure prediction of confined hydrogen explosion considering flame instabilities

In order to ensure the safe utilization of hydrogen energy, the explosion pressure behavior is extremely important to design chemical equipment and evaluate explosion accident consequence. This paper is aimed at establishing a theoretical method of predicting explosion pressure behavior in the confined chamber by considering flame instabilities. The tendency of flame wrinkling factor in the pressure-buildup stage is firstly evaluated using large eddy simulation and the compensation theory. The limiting value of flame wrinkling factor during entire explosion process is calculated using the fractal theory. Finally, the dynamic model of flame wrinkling factor is implemented into the smooth flame model. The results demonstrated that the flame wrinkling factor in the pressure-buildup stage almost increases linearly with time. The limiting value of flame wrinkling factor is 2.4649. The explosion pressure will be underestimated using the smooth flame model, and the calculated explosion pressure in the isothermal condition is smaller than that in the adiabatic condition. When the fully turbulent flame is considered, the explosion pressure will be overpredicted significantly. By changing the confined chamber size, the explosion pressure could be reproduced relatively satisfactorily when the flame wrinkling factor is assumed to increase exponentially. The explosion pressure prediction must consider the effect of adiabatic compression and flame instabilities on burning rate.     

环境问题与"可持续发展"道路存在的误区

环境问题本质是人的问题,具体表现于人口问题和人的德行问题。文章认为导致我们系列环境政策没有起到预想结果的原因在于我们"德行"中存在的认识误区,分析了这些认识误区;提出解决环境问题的根本途径是改造我们的"德行"并知道我们生活在地球"极限之内"。     

Fishing and echolocation behavior of the greater bulldog bat,Noctilio leporinus,in the field

When hunting for fish Noctilio leporinus uses several strategies. In high search flight it flies within 20–50 cm of the water surface and emits groups of two to four echolocation signals, always containing at least one pure constant frequency (CF) pulse and one mixed CF-FM pulse consisting of a CF component which is followed by a frequency-modulated (FM) component. The pure CF signals are the longest, with an average duration of 13.3 ms and a maximum of 17 ms. The CF component of the CF-FM signals averages 8.9 ms, the FM sweeps 3.9 ms. The CF components have frequencies of 52.8–56.2 kHz and the FM components have an average bandwidth of 25.9 kHz. A bat in high search flight reacts to jumping fish with pointed dips at the spot where a fish has broken the surface. As it descends to the water surface the bat shows the typical approach pattern of all bats with decreasing pulse duration and pulse interval. A jumping fish reveals itself by a typical pattern of temporary echo glints, reflected back to the bat from its body and from the water disturbance. In low search flight N. leporinus drops to a height of only 4–10 cm, with body parallel to the water, legs extended straight back and turned slightly downward, and feet cocked somewhat above the line of the legs and poised within 2–4 cm of the water surface. In this situation N. leporinus emits long series of short CF-FM pulses with an average duration of 5.6 ms (CF 3.1 and FM 2.6) and an average pulse interval of 20 ms, indicating that it is looking for targets within a short range. N. leporinus also makes pointed dips during low search flight by rapidly snapping the feet into the water at the spot where it has localized a jumping fish or disturbance. In the random rake mode, N. leporinus drops to the water surface, lowers its feet and drags its claws through the water in relatively straight lines for up to 10m. The echolocation behavior is similar to that of high search flight. This indicates that in this hunting mode N. leporinus is not pursuing specific targets, and that raking is a random or statistical search for surface fishes. When raking, the bat uses two strategies. In directed random rake it rakes through patches of water where fish jumping activity is high. Our interpretation is that the bat detects this activity by echolocation but prefers not to concentrate on a single jumping fish. In the absence of jumping fish, after flying for several minutes without any dips, N. leporinus starts to make very long rakes in areas where it has hunted successfully before (memory-directed random rake). Hunting bats caught a fish approximately once in every 50–200 passes through the hunting area.     

Divorce in common murres (Uria aalge): relationship to parental quality

Behavioral precursors of 12 divorces were examined in 30 color-banded pairs of common murres (Uria aalge) over six breeding seasons. Common murres are long-lived seabirds that typically return each year to the same mate and nest site in dense colonies. At least one parent is present continuously from egg lay to chick fledging. Murres, therefore, have considerable opportunities to compare their mates parental behavior with that of several familiar neighbors. Previous reproductive success was lower for divorcing birds than for reuniting pairs. As predicted by the better option hypothesis, there were clear choosers (seven females and five males) that initiated divorce by moving to a new birds site or by courting a new partner at their current site. Choosers improved their reproductive success after the divorce, whereas their previous partners, the victims did not. Yearly divorce rates (average 8.2% per year) were significantly correlated with yearly mortality rates. Divorces appear to be opportunistic: pairs divorced after varying numbers of reproductive failures with the immediate precursor usually being the disappearance (death) of a murre from a successful neighboring site. In contrast to the delays experienced by victims, choosers formed new pairs quickly and laid their eggs no later than reuniting pairs. Prior to the divorce, victims fed their chicks less often than choosers, and some engaged in other behaviors that compromised egg or chick survival. These observations suggest that deficiencies in parental behavior were precursors to the divorce. This report is one of the first cases where reproductive failure of divorcing pairs has been linked to deficits in the parental behavior of the subsequent divorce victim.Communicated by C. Brown     

Foraging responses of wild house mice to accumulations of conspecific odor as a predation risk

Many predators hunt using the social and waste odors of their prey. It is unknown, however, whether potential prey modify their behavior in response to the risks of predation associated with accumulations of conspecific odor. We examined this question by measuring foraging trade-offs of wild house mice (Mus domesticus) in the field where we increased both predation risk and conspecific odor at artificial food patches in a two-factor design. Mouse giving-up densities (GUDs) were significantly higher in open habitats than in closed habitats but did not differ with the addition of mouse odors. Fine-scale behavioral observations of captive mice confirmed their attraction to the conspecific odor in an enclosure experiment, without any change to the GUD. These results indicate that house mice continue to visit and forage at food patches despite accumulations of predator-attracting odors. This most likely occurs for the social benefits obtained from conspecific odor exploration; however, such behavior may cause mice to become vulnerable to considerable olfactory exploitation by their predators. Future work must therefore focus on how mice trade off the social benefits of investigating odors that also attract their enemies.     

Elk decision-making rules are simplified in the presence of wolves

The risk of predation drives many behavioral responses in prey. However, few studies have directly tested whether predation risk alters the way other variables influence prey behavior. Here we use information theory (Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc) in a novel way to test the hypothesis that the decision-making rules governing elk behavior are simplified by the presence of wolves. With elk habitat use as the dependent variable, we test whether the number of independent variables (i.e., the size of the models) that best predict this behavior differ when wolves are present vs absent. Thus, we use AICc scores simply to determine the number of variables to which elk respond when making decisions. We measured habitat use using 2,288 locations from GPS collars on 14 elk, over two winters (14 elk winters), in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that the use of three major habitat components (grass, conifer, sage) was sensitive to many variables on days that wolves were locally absent, with the best models (ΔAICc≤2) averaging 7.4 parameters. In contrast, habitat use was sensitive to few variables on days when wolves were present: the best models averaged only 2.5 parameters. Because fewer variables affect elk behavior in the presence of wolves, we conclude that elk use simpler decision-making rules in the presence of wolves. This simplification of decision-making rules implies that predation risk imposes selection pressures that do not allow prey to respond to other pressures in ways that they otherwise would. If the affected processes are important, then this indirect effect of predation is likely to be important.