A risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO2 pipelines using integral consequence modelling

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO₂ pipelines developed at the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) as part of the EU FP7 CO2Pipehaz project. Until recently, risk assessment of dense phase and supercritical CO₂ pipelines has been problematic because of the lack of suitable source term and integral consequence models that handle the complex behaviour of CO₂ appropriately. The risk assessment presented uses Phast, a commercially available source term and dispersion model that has been recently updated to handle the effects of solid CO₂. A test case pipeline was input to Phast and dispersion footprints to different levels of harm (dangerous toxic load and probit values) were obtained for a set of pipeline specific scenarios. HSL's risk assessment tool QuickRisk was then used to calculate the individual and societal risk surrounding the pipeline. Knowledge gaps that were encountered such as: harm criteria, failure rates and release scenarios were identified and are discussed.     

Uncertainty analyses for calibrating a soil carbon balance model to agricultural field trial data in Sweden and Kenya

How do additional data of the same and/or different type contribute to reducing model parameter and predictive uncertainties? Most modeling applications of soil organic carbon (SOC) time series in agricultural field trial datasets have been conducted without accounting for model parameter uncertainty. There have been recent advances with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analyses in the field of hydrological modeling that are applicable, relevant and potentially valuable in modeling the dynamics of SOC. Here we employed a Monte Carlo method with threshold screening known as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to calibrate the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) to long-term field trail data from Ultuna, Sweden and Machang’a, Kenya. Calibration results are presented in terms of parameter distributions and credibility bands on time series simulations for a number of case studies. Using these methods, we demonstrate that widely uncertain model parameters, as well as strong covariance between inert pool size and rate constant parameters, exist when root mean square simulation errors were within uncertainties in input estimations and data observations. We show that even rough estimates of the inert pool (perhaps from chemical analysis) can be quite valuable to reduce uncertainties in model parameters. In fact, such estimates were more effective at reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty than an additional 16 years time series data at Ultuna. We also demonstrate an effective method to jointly, simultaneously and in principle more robustly calibrate model parameters to multiple datasets across different climatic regions within an uncertainty framework. These methods and approaches should have benefits for use with other SOC models and datasets as well.     

Government environmental control measures on CO2 emission during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing: Perspectives from a top-down approach

Strict air pollution control measures were conducted during the Youth Olympic Games（YOG） period at Nanjing city and surrounding areas in August 2014.This event provides a unique chance to evaluate the effect of government control measures on regional atmospheric pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.Many previous studies have observed significant reductions of atmospheric pollution species and improvement in air quality,while no study has quantified its synergism on anthropogenic CO₂...     

Lignin-based Carbon Fibers: Effect of Synthetic Polymer Blending on Fiber Properties

Carbon fibers have been produced from hardwood lignin/synthetic polymer blend fibers. Hardwood kraft lignin was thermally blended with two recyclable polymers, poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) and polypropylene (PP). Both systems were easily spun into fibers. A thermostabilization step was utilized prior to carbonization to prevent fusion of individual fibers. For the lignin-based carbon fibers, careful control of heating rate was required. However, PET–lignin blend fibers can be thermostabilized under higher heating rates than the corresponding homofibers. Carbon fiber yield decreased with increasing incorporation of synthetic plastic. However, carbon fiber yield obtained for a 25% plastic blend fiber was still higher than that generally reported for petroleum pitch. Blend composition also affected surface morphology of the carbon fibers. Immiscible lignin–PP fibers resulted in a hollow and/or porous carbon fiber; whereas carbon fiber produced from miscible lignin–PET fibers have a smooth surface. Synthetic polymer blending also affected the mechanical properties of the fibers, especially MOE; lignin-based carbon fiber properties improved upon blending with PET.     

An Application and Evaluation of the CAL3QHC Model for Predicting Carbon Monoxide Concentrations from Motor Vehicles Near a Roadway Intersection in Muscat,Oman

The CAL3QHC model was used to predict carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from motor vehicles at an existing urban intersection (Star Cinema in Muscat area, Oman). The CO concentrations predicted from the model were compared with those measured in the field. Predicted average CO concentrations were found to compare favorably with measured values obtained at all eight receptors considered within the modeled intersection. In general, the comparison indicates good agreement with some underprediction for CO. For receptor 6, the model overpredicts the average CO concentration. This overprediction is associated with the presence of trees and green area in the location of receptor 6. In general, the measurements and the model results indicated that the highest CO concentrations were found to occur close to the intersection and, hence, a decrease in the concentration levels was seen as the distance from the road increased. The results indicated that the levels of CO were well below the ambient air quality standard and that probably no health risk was present in areas adjacent to the star cinema intersection. However, the predicted worst-case 1-h CO concentrations assuming inversion atmospheric stability conditions (class F) and wind speed of 1 m/s indicated that the levels of CO were close to or higher than the Omans National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) value of 35 ppm at all receptors considered. The results of this study are useful in transport development and traffic management planning.Published online.     

Additivity of State Inventories of Greenhouse-Gas Emissions

In addition to national inventories of emissions of greenhouse gases, there are inventories for most, but not all, states constituting the United States. This paper analyzes the state inventories to see if reported emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are additive. Considerable reanalysis of the state inventories is required before they can be added to yield a larger-scale inventory. Some specific sources were considered by some states but not by others. Estimation techniques evolved over time as inventories were produced, and there are instances of both double-counting (two states reporting the same emission) and omission (neither state reporting the same emission), where interstate transfers of energy or materials occurred. Nevertheless, the inventories, when adjusted for obvious double-counting or omissions, are probably approximately additive, although it is difficult to quantify the extent to which this is true.     

CARBON CONTENT OF SEDIMENTS OF SMALL RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Carbon content was measured in sediments deposited in 58 small reservoirs across the United States. Reservoirs varied from 0.2 to 4000 km2 in surface area. The carbon content of sediment ranged from 0.3 to 5.6 percent, with a mean of 1.9 ± 1.1 percent. No significant differences between the soil and sediment carbon content were found using a paired t-test or ANOVA. The carbon content of sediments in reservoirs was similar to the carbon content of surface soils (0–10 cm) in the watershed, except in watersheds with shrub or steppe (desert) vegetation. Based on the sediment accumulation rates measured in each reservoir, the calculated organic carbon accumulation rates among reservoirs ranged from 26 to 3700 gC m^-2yr^-1, with a mean of 675 ± 739 gC m^-2yr^-1. The carbon content and accumulation rates were highest in sediments from grassland watersheds. High variability was found in carbon content, carbon accumulation, and sediment accumulation rates due to individual watershed and reservoir characteristics rather than to any broad physiographic patterns. The carbon accumulation rates in these reservoir sediments indicate that reservoir sediments could be a significant sink for organic carbon.     

Coalbed methane reservoir data and simulator parameter uncertainty modelling for CO2 storage performance assessment

Laboratory studies and a number of field pilots have demonstrated that CO₂ injection into coal seams has the potential to enhance coalbed methane (CBM) recovery with the added advantage that most of the injected CO₂ can be stored permanently in coal. The concept of storing CO₂ in geologic formations as a safe and effective greenhouse gas mitigation option requires public and regulatory acceptance. In this context it is important to develop a good understanding of the reservoir performance, uncertainties and the risks that are associated with geological storage. The paper presented refers to the sources of uncertainty involved in CO₂ storage performance assessment in coalbed methane reservoirs and demonstrates their significance using extensive digital well log data representing the Manville coals in Alberta, Canada. The spatial variability of the reservoir properties was captured through geostatistical analysis, and sequential Gaussian simulations of these provided multiple realisations for the reservoir simulator inputs. A number of CO₂ injection scenarios with variable matrix swelling coefficients were evaluated using a 2D reservoir model and spatially distributed realisations of total net thickness and permeability.     

Time-lapse carbon dioxide monitoring with pulsed neutron logging

Elevated levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere have been linked to the rise in land and sea temperature [Climate Change, 2001. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Xiaosu, D. (Eds.), The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, UK, p. 944]. To demonstrate geological carbon sequestration as a mitigation technique, a carbon dioxide injection experiment was conducted in East Texas. The target – Frio formation – is a highly porous, permeable and unconsolidated sandstone. The specific interval is the Frio C sand, which originally was saturated with saline formation water. At the injection location, the Frio C sand dips 18° to the south. To monitor the injected CO₂ spreading in the formation, an old well from 1956 drilled into the deeper Yegua formation was selected as the observation well. The injection well was drilled at a distance of 100 ft downdip from the monitoring well. Several borehole measurement methods were available to monitor the CO₂ injection, but the most suitable technology was thought to be the pulsed neutron logging. This logging is used widely in cased hole, and the measured macroscopic thermal absorption cross-section (Σ) is sensitive to CO₂ saturation in high porosity saline water environments. Several log examples are given demonstrating successful the monitoring of the CO₂ plume moving through the two boreholes and the resulting saturation changes.