青海省塔拉滩草原利用方向探讨

青海省共和县塔拉滩是一个平坦开阔的大草原，近４０多年来一直有宜农与宜牧之争。本文就此，从３个方面作了重点论述：垦滩种粮的后果严重；超载过牧也有潜在生态危机；最佳出路是将根治沙源与合理利用草原结合起来，发展季节畜牧业，走一条治用结合、滩谷互补、农牧业相互促进的道路，建设一个新型草原。     

细粒酒精模型冰力学性能综合评述

简要介绍现行几种模型冰质量评价指标。对细粒精模型冰的特征进行了归纳和分析。阐明细粒酒精模型冰历史资源的可靠性，从模型冰变形模量与弯曲强度的关系和压缩强度民弯曲强度的关系，以及其它物理和力学数入手，综合评价了细粒酒精模型冰的质量。     

城市河流底质粒径与重金属污染状况分析

河流底质是河流水体的重要组成部分,是污染物的主要归宿场所。重金属主要通过吸附、络合、生物吸收等过程进入河流底质中,河流底质粒径是影响重金属吸附量的重要因素之一,而在有机质含量较高的河流底质中,底质粒径和有机质的吸附作用共同影响着重金属在底质上的吸附量。通过对苏北某城市河流底质进行粒径分级实验和有机质含量测定,研究了底质粒径与重金属（Cd、Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr）含量的关系以及底质中有机质含量对重金属吸附量的影响。     

城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率影响研究

我国粮食生产在实现了"十一连增"之后正面临着城镇化所带来的资源约束和环境挑战,如何实现城镇化与粮食生产的协调发展,是我国当前需要高度关注的一个重大问题。本文以1994-2012年我国29个省(市、区)为研究对象,利用方向距离函数将环境因素纳入到粮食生产技术效率测算框架,对我国粮食生产环境技术效率值进行了测算,并对不同阶段各粮食生产功能区粮食生产环境技术效率的演变特征进行了分析,在此基础上将城镇化细分并设置了人口城镇化指标、土地城镇化指标、产业发展城镇化指标和生态环境压力城镇化指标,利用所构建面板数据模型探讨了城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率的影响。研究结果表明:11994-2012年城镇化加速期,我国粮食主产区和主销区的粮食生产与环境的协调度要优于粮食平衡区,但是粮食主产区和主销区的粮食生产环境在逐步恶化,粮食平衡区则在逐步好转;2人口城镇化有利于粮食主销区和平衡区粮食生产环境技术效率提升,对粮食主产区则相反。土地城镇化、产业发展城镇化和生态环境压力城镇化不利于全国及各粮食生产功能区粮食生产环境技术效率的提升;3城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率的影响存在功能区差异性。     

基于农业生态地带模型的中国粮食产能动态评估

随着人口增加和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国粮食消费需求将继续呈刚性增长,使得粮食品种和区域结构性矛盾加剧,而粮食产能的动态评估能够让我们加深认识我国粮食供需平衡,对制定适宜于我国经济社会发展同时保障粮食安全的粮食可持续发展战略具有重要意义.论文选取农田生产力作为我国粮食产能的指标,通过改进农业生态地带(AEZ)模型,动态嵌入不同县域水平的管理和投入水平的限制性因子,集成县级截面数据估计投入系数权重,并基于此估算了全国2000-2010年间农田生产力水平.研究发现,2000年以来,我国农田生产力虽年际间存在波动,但总体呈现增长的态势,且区域差异性显著.农田生产力水平存在从沿海到内陆、从南向北及从东向西的递减的梯度,而局部地区农田生产力变化明显,表现出明显的东西分异规律,其次是南北分异规律.而对各个地区农田生产力平均值统计发现,东部沿海地区与南部省份的农田生产力要高于内陆省份,西部地区农田生产力普遍低于东部和中部地区.2000、2005、2010年全国分县统计的粮食产量数据与动态估算结果进行精度验证,其相关系数分别达到0.82、0.76和0.89,实际产量为估算结果的69.4％、73.4％、67.2％,较好的反映了我国农田生产力的基本状况.最后,基于我国农田生产力时空变化规律和局部差异性特征,以及我国经济区水平上的中国农田生产力的变化规律,从耕地数量保障、农业管理和投入水平提高以及适宜的农业区划方面,提出适宜于我国自然环境状况和社会经济发展的农田生产力保障策略,对保障我国的农田生产力的稳定增长方面的规划决策与政策制定具有参考价值.     

Dynamic evaluation of land productivity in China

For making rational and scientific land-use planning,an inventory indicator of land productivity subject to biophysical limitations and human disturbance is required.This study introduces agricultural land productivity(ALP)as the dynamic indicator to measure land productivity,involving factors that affect agricultural production,such as characteristics of climate,soil,and terrain.As a case study of this dynamic indicator,ALP was estimated at county level and aggregated into provincial level in the whole of China.The result shows that ALP increased during 2000-2010 in China,and the ratios of ALP to the actual grain yield were 65.40%and 66.38%in the years 2000 and 2005,respectively.The ALP is an effective dynamic indicator to estimate the land productivity and to represent the basic conditions about the supply of water,energy,nutrients,and the physical basis for plant growth,as well as the local input.ALP estimation could provide supporting information for policy-making about land production planning and land-use management.     

Characteristics of lead geochemistry and the mobility of Pb isotopes in the system of pedogenic rock–pedosphere–irrigated riverwater–cereal–atmosphere from the Yangtze River delta region,China

Knowledge of the characteristics of Pb and its isotopic transfer in different compartments is scant, especially for the mobility of Pb isotopes in the geochemical cycle. The present study characterizes differential Pb transport mechanism and the mobility of Pb isotopes in the pedogenic parent rock–pedosphere–irrigated riverwater–cereal–atmosphere system in the Yangtze River delta region, by determining Pb concentration and Pb isotopic ratios of pedogenic parent rocks, fluvial suspended particle matter, tillage soils, soil profiles, irrigated riverwater, fertilizer, Pb ore, cereal roots and grains. The results show that Pb isotopes in the geochemical cycle generally follow the equation of ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb = −1.157 × ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb + 3.46 (r² = 0.941). However, Pb isotopes have different mobility in different environmental matrixes. Whereas in the pedosphere, the heavier Pb (²⁰⁸Pb) usually shows stronger mobility relative to the lighter Pb, and is more likely to transfer into soil exchangeable Pb fraction and carbonates phase. The lighter Pb shows stronger transfer ability from soil to cereal grain via root compared to the heavier Pb. However, the cereal grains have lower ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and higher ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratios than root and tillage soil, similar to the airborne Pb and anthropogenic Pb, implying that a considerable amount of Pb in cereal grains comes from the atmosphere. The estimate model shows that 16.7–52.6% (average: 33.5%) of Pb in rice grain is the airborne Pb.     

昆山市耕地变化和粮食安全研究

采用粮食自给率结合区域最小人均耕地面积对江苏省昆山市20多年来粮食安全状况进行研究,结果表明:昆山市在2000年从粮食产区转型为粮食销区;2006年的粮食自给率仅有23%;生产力提高和作物种植结构的相互制约导致了最小人均耕地面积呈波动变化。在粮食安全未来发展趋势的分析方面,提出了依据相关社会经济指标对昆山市发展阶段进行聚类分析,然后以最新发展阶段数据进行建模的新思路。分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;至2011年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至11%;最小人均耕地面积降低至0.028 hm2,如果该变化趋势得不到有效控制而持续较长时间,到2016年时,粮食自给率和最小人均耕地面积将分别下降至8%和0.012 hm2。依据这些分析及预测,文章提出了坚持土地集约利用、提升耕地生产力、建立和完善粮食流通网络和拓展并强化与粮食产区之间的合作等保障粮食安全、促进地区可持续发展的对策措施。     

长江南京段近岸沉积物和土壤中重金属分布特征分析

通过测定沉积物和土壤中Cd、Pb、Cr、Zn、Cu、Ni 6种重金属元素的平均含量,计算其富集因子,分析长江南京段近岸沉积物和土壤中重金属的空间分布特征,结果表明,几种重金属在沉积物中的富集次序为:CdPbCr1NiCuZn,在土壤中为:CdZnCu1CrPbNi,除Zn和Cu外,其他几种金属在沉积物中的富集程度高于土壤,同时Cd的含量超过土壤环境质量三级标准。以Cd和Pb为例分析了重金属含量与沉积物粒级之间的关系,回归分析显示,Cd、Pb的含量与颗粒物的粒级呈显著的相关性,与细颗粒物的含量有密切关系,细颗粒携带的重金属,在长江水力分选作用下到达下游,成为沉积物中重金属的主要来源。     

Public Investment and Environmental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

Abstract

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environmental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially In absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the crop-specific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public Investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.