基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

基于安徽省土地利用变化的地形梯度效应分析

为揭示地形因素与土地利用空间格局演变的关系,以安徽省2000年、2005年以及2010年Landsat TM影像和DEM数据为数据源,利用坡向、地形起伏度、坡度变率和地形位指数多种地形因子,并结合地学信息图谱分析理论从综合角度系统研究土地利用结构时空分异格局在地形梯度上的变化特点及其规律。结果表明:1)研究区主要的土地利用类型是耕地和林地,其次是建设用地和未利用土地,且建设用地面积逐期增加趋势显著。2)2000~2010年研究区不同土地利用类型在不同地形梯度区间的分异规律存在明显差异。低地形梯度范围是耕地、水域和建设用地的优势分布区;中地形梯度范围是草地的集中分布区;林地的优势分布区集中在高地形梯度范围。3)2000~2010年研究区土地利用图谱以稳定型和后期变化型为主,低地形梯度和高地形梯度是稳定型图谱的集中分布区,中低、中高和高地形梯度范围是后期变化型图谱的优势分布区。2000~2005年林地的优势分布区有向较低地形位梯度扩张的趋势,其中,耕地是主要的转入来源。2005~2010年耕地的优势分布区有向较高地形位梯度扩张的趋势,变化模式主要为:"林地–耕地"、"未利用地–耕地"和"草地–耕地"。     

Effects of organic matter on Leymus chinensis germination,growth, and urease activity and available nitrogen in coastal saline soil

ABSTRACT

The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of three organic matters (stalk powder, microbial fertilizer, and manure) on Leymus chinensis germination, growth, and urease activity and available nitrogen (N) in coastal saline soil. The study was conducted in a completely randomized design with eight treatments: J₀V₀Y₀, J₁V₀Y₀, J₀V₁Y₀, J₀V₀Y₁, J₁V₁Y₀, J₁V₀Y₁, J₀V₁Y₁, J₁V₁Y₁. The notations were based on the quantities of each agent added to 1 kg of coastal saline soil: J₀ – no straw powder, J₁ – 0.2 kg straw powder, Y₀ – no manure, Y₁ – 0.3 kg manure, V₀ – no microbial fertilizer, V₁ – 0.2 L microbial fertilizer, each in quantic repeat. L. chinensis was sown as 50 seeds per pot. Results indicated that addition of organic agents exerted a significantly enhanced germination, increase in fresh weight and elevated soil urease activity. Soil available N levels were significantly positively correlated with soil urease activity and fresh weight, but not with germination rate. It is noteworthy that the halophyte L. chinensis showed improved characteristics when grown in coastal saline soil with addition of organic amendments.     

Getting caught up in the game: managing non-formal dynamics in the remediation of contaminated sediments in Oslo harbor

This study aims at describing, analyzing and evaluating the relation between management styles and process dynamics of a complex planning process confronted with unexpected dynamics. The development of an aquatic disposal site for dredged contaminated sediments in Oslo was managed by a project management style focused on timely and cost-effective implementation. Coupling the remediation project with another infrastructural project and the actual construction of the site led to unexpected dynamics in terms of resistance and controversy. Project management had difficulties in adjusting its style accordingly, resulting in even more delay and resistance. Managing complex planning projects requires a style suitable to the characteristics of the project and the capability of adjusting it to changing circumstances. The paper concludes with some explanations why it is difficult to change management styles in complex planning and implementation processes and complexity-embracing approaches to deal with this.     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率，采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析，构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型，并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系，将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度，计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析，能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考，有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

The influence of the level of definition of functional specifications on the environmental performances of a complex system. EcoCSP approach

The tendency towards a homogenous mode of development modelled on that of Western countries means that sustainable development has become increasingly urgent. It is necessary to thoroughly redefine products and their expected performances in such a way that the consequences are compatible with sustainable development. In the domain of product design, this means that it is no longer sufficient to use assessment tools “after the fact” to check the impact of products whose functional unit (FU) was defined prior to production; it is now necessary to rethink the definition of the FU itself. This article aims to present an approach based on a combination of life cycle analysis methods and problem-solving by constraint satisfaction. This original approach makes it possible to vary the design of the different dimensions of the FUs of a complex system and thus to make it easier to identify the best architecture along with the best functional definition of the system. In this study, the EcoCSP approach is applied to define the functional performances of an ecological passenger ferry. The complexity of couplings between subsystems and the sheer number of those subsystems mean that the designer has to use “intelligent” tools. These simulate a great number of scenarios and help him/her to fine-tune the system and make the right technological choices with regard to the right functional specifications.     

Effective communication about complex environmental issues: Perceived quality of information about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depends on stakeholder collaboration

This experimental research addresses the effectiveness of communication about complex environmental issues, depending on whether the same information is provided by multiple collaborating or by individual organizations (i.e., stakeholders). The information provided pertains to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology, as an example of a complex environmental issue. In Studies 1 (N = 75) and 2 (N = 66) we found that participants perceived factual information from collaborating stakeholders to be of higher quality than when the same information was provided by individual stakeholders. As predicted, the expectation of diverse perspectives being represented in the collaborative information mediated this effect. In addition, in Study 3 (N = 79) the perceived dissimilarity of collaborating stakeholders was shown to be an important precondition for the collaboration effect observed in Studies 1 and 2. Finally, these studies indicate that occasional collaboration between different stakeholders does not necessarily harm the perceived credibility of each individual stakeholder.     

燃煤电厂电-袋复合式除尘器优化控制的仿真运行研究

以电-袋复合式除尘器为仿真研究对象,在Windows界面下利用Visual Basic6．0编程语言开发出燃煤电厂电-袋复合式除尘器优化控制的仿真运行软件。该软件通过建立数学模型,进行仿真实验,模拟工况变化、优化运行参数等对电-袋复合除尘系统进行整体的优化控制,并综合分析电-袋复合除尘器运行过程中的能耗以及运行费用,对运行电压、电流、运行阻力、喷吹周期等参数进行了优化。该仿真软件达到了电一袋除尘系统的节能降耗的目的,同时也降低了电～袋复合除尘器的运行成本。     

区域空气质量模拟中查表法的应用研究

在自行开发完善的区域空气质量模式系统RegSRRMS中应用查表法,模拟中国典型城市群对流层大气主要污染物的浓度变化,评估该方法在大气复合污染事件预测和控制中的有效性.首先,利用具有国际先进水平的空气质量模式WRF-CHEM中的化学模块建立了包含完善气相化学、气溶胶过程的箱模式WRFBOX.其次,利用WRFBOX进行化学反应敏感性分析,基于影响污染物的重要因子分别建立了臭氧(O3)及其前体物、无机盐气溶胶和二次有机气溶胶(SOA)查算表数据库,并检验其有效性.最后,将此查算表数据库引入RegSRRMS,建立简化的查表算法.利用直接耦合机制法和查表法对2000年3月珠三角地区污染个例中主要大气污染物浓度进行模拟.通过比较2种方法的模拟结果,显示查表法计算效率提高了57%,能够反映大气光化学反应的非线性特征、气溶胶及其前体物的平衡关系,具有高分辨率、高时效性,能够方便快捷地给出源和受体之间的响应关系,结果可靠.在区域空气质量模式中应用查表法有利于大气污染事件的快速预测以及大气污染控制的快速决策.     

络合-超滤耦合工艺去除水中镍离子的研究

以聚丙烯酸钠(PAANa)和聚乙烯亚胺(PEI)作为络合剂,将其与镍离子络合后的溶液转移至超滤杯中,在0.1 MPa压力下通过聚醚砜超滤膜进行分离,研究pH值和络合剂/Ni2+装载质量比(L)对Ni2+去除率的影响,并根据朗缪尔等温模型拟合络合反应平衡常数.同时研究超滤时间对膜通量和Ni2+去除率的影响.结果表明,选用PAANa为络合剂,在pH值为8、L=5时,Ni2+的去除率达到最大值99.5%.PEI为络合剂时,Ni2+去除率在pH值为7、L为5时达到最大值93.0%.不同pH值条件下拟合得到的络合平衡常数表明,pH为7时最有利于络合反应.另外,单个络合剂单体所能结合的Ni2+个数随着pH值的升高而增大.研究结果还表明,在长达12 h的超滤时间内,PAANa为络合剂时,膜通量的衰减<10%;PEI为络合剂时,膜通量基本保持不变;Ni2+的去除率都基本保持恒定.因此,在合适条件下,络合-超滤耦合工艺能有效去除水中的镍离子.