电网发展、清洁电源接入与地区能源效率

鉴于我国已经建成全球规模最大的超高压和特高压电网,彻底弥补了电力跨区配置的电网基础设施短板,并且为清洁电源并入电网和跨区消纳提供了完善的基础设施,不仅克服我国电力负荷中心和能源基地的区域布局不协调,而且有益于缓解日益严峻的能源利用率低下和环境污染问题。本文利用1991—2012年全国29个省市面板数据实证研究了清洁电源并网对地区全要素能源效率的影响。为保证实证结果稳健性分别在线性和非线性实证框架下采用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)和面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)两种方法估计了清洁电源接入高压、超高压和特高压电网的地区全要素能源效率异质性效应。实证结果显示:(1)我国电网基础设施对地区全要素能源效率具有明显的增进效应,特别是超高压电网在促进全要素能源效率提升上表现的最为突出,在特高压骨干网架尚未形成的情况下起到了支柱性作用。(2)高压、超高压、特高压与清洁电源交互项的估计系数始终位于负数区间,反映清洁电源并网的能源效率绩效并不明显,受限于并网规模和机制缺陷,还没有发挥出全要素能源效率提升作用。(3)随着人均GDP的不断提高,各等级电网对地区能源效率的益处越来越明显,并且存在着门槛效应。(4)特高压电网对地区能源效率的积极作用主要表现在东部沿海高收入省份,这些省份作为电力消费负荷中心,大规模接入清洁电源对能源效率改善裨益明显。接下来,需要根据地区的能源禀赋结构选择清洁电源的并网模式,完善的电网基础设施、合理的电源结构还需要配置以高效的清洁电源并网机制才能不断增进地区全要素能源效率。     

燃煤电厂在线监测系统颗粒物浓度排放系数影响因素的探讨

选取上海市7家未安装气-气换热器的国控燃煤电厂作为研究对象，从煤质、除尘器、脱硫协同脱除作用以及锅炉工况负荷等方面探讨对颗粒物浓度排放系数 K值产生的影响，得出上述因素通过改变脱硫进口颗粒物浓度值影响 K值，当脱硫进口颗粒物浓度较低、波动范围较小时，其 K值也维持相对稳定的状态；当脱硫进口颗粒物浓度较高、波动范围较大时，其 K值也会发生较大的变化等结论。     

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000 km² of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714 ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668 ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351 ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.     

鄱阳湖平原区农村门塘浮游藻类群落特征及其生物学评价

于2018年—2019年在鄱阳湖区周边选取4个县（区）10个村庄的典型门塘开展浮游藻类采样调查。研究共鉴定出藻类6门83种，以蓝藻门、绿藻门和硅藻门为主；浮游藻类细胞密度全年范围为7.30×104个/L～2.78×1011个/L，年均值为1.4×1010个/L，其中夏季细胞密度最大，冬季细胞密度最小；优势种主要有小环藻、微囊藻、铜绿微囊藻、卵形隐藻等，且具有较为明显的季节演替，全年优势种为小环藻；藻类多样性指数（H′）年均值为1.49，丰富度指数（M）年均值为1.92，全年水体生物学评价结果为中度污染。     

饮用水源微生物快速检测技术的发展及应用

微生物是威胁饮用水安全的首要问题，水环境微生物快速检测技术的开发和应用是推动饮用水源微生物快速检测和水质安全预警技术发展的保障。随着对水质微生物污染快速检测和准确预警新要求的提出，水环境中微生物在线检测和预警技术得到了越来越多的开发和应用。笔者总结了水环境常见微生物检测方法和技术的发展，重点讨论了饮用水源微生物快速检测技术的发展和应用，根据各项技术的应用和推广使用程度，将其归纳为常用快速检测技术、潜在适用快速检测技术和新型快速检测技术等类别，并详细阐述了一些应用较广的技术，以期为构建水质微生物污染早期预警系统提供参考。     

射阳湖浮游动物群落结构特征及其与环境因子相关性研究

2016—2017年对射阳湖开展浮游动物群落结构和水质指标逐月监测。结果表明,射阳湖共鉴定出浮游动物61种,其中原生动物、轮虫、枝角类和桡足类分别为25种、24种、7种和5种。浮游动物种类数呈现春夏季多于秋冬季的变化趋势。浮游动物优势种数量较多、分布广,群落结构相对复杂且稳定。运用Shannon-Wiener指数、均匀度指数和B/T指数对射阳湖水质作评价,结果表明,该湖处于轻度—中度污染状态,生物学指标评价法与常规水质评价结果一致。浮游动物群落结构与水质指标相关性分析表明,水温、透明度、Chl-a和DO是影响射阳湖浮游动物群落结构的主要水质指标。     

维修时间不确定性下配电网灾后维修队安排的鲁棒恢复研究*

为最小化灾后配电网损失量，准确描述完整维修队工作时间（分为路途时间与具体维修时间），依据台风路径对维修队所需路途时间进行分类，并利用期望概率描述具体维修时间的不确定性。建立2阶段分布式鲁棒优化模型，采用CCG算法分析国内某地区配电网算例发现:考虑维修时间不确定性可以有效减少配电网损失量。     

基于BP神经网络的受限空间火灾联合探测方法

针对航空受限空间火灾探测高误报的问题，在现有技术成果基础上对多种火灾探测方式进行研讨，并提出1种基于BP神经网络技术的飞机机身内部受限空间火灾联合探测报警方法。该方法结合现有烟雾感应、气体传感器探测等常用火灾探测技术，以红外热成像探测为辅助手段，采用神经网络实现数据融合，对模拟实验舱火灾烟雾进行联合探测，在单一火灾探测方式基础上提高了探测准确率。     

Social representations of governance for change towards sustainability: perspectives of sustainability advocates

There is a substantial body of literature on public understandings of large-scale ‘environmental’ phenomena such as climate change and resource degradation. At the same time, political science and economics analyse the governance arrangements to deal with such issues. These realms of research rarely meet: there has been little research into people’s understandings of the governance of environmental change. This study adds a psychological perspective to governance research by investigating social representations of governance that promotes societal change towards sustainability, and related practices. It examines data from qualitative interviews with sustainability-interested people in seven European countries (n = 105). The analysis identified building blocks of representations suitable as an analytical framework for future research on governance representations. The diversity of their content reflected a range of pathways to societal change. Representations often seemed to have a creative function as a guiding vision for individuals’ own practices, but their wider transformative potential was constrained.     

具有变频器的矿井低压漏电保护研究

为了解决移动变电站低压侧为变频器供电时漏电保护装置误动的问题，提出了基于傅式算法的附加直流原理漏电保护新方法。通过理论分析和MATLAB/Simulink仿真，研究了具有变频器的矿井低压供电系统附加直流原理漏电保护，提出由傅式算法分解出采样电压直流分量以反映电缆绝缘水平的保护方法；同时分析了其他因素对直流分量的影响。研究结果表明:变频器对传统附加直流保护整定值有较大影响，易造成漏电保护装置误动且无法实现电缆的在线绝缘监测；所提出的直流分量法能准确测量电缆对地绝缘电阻，且可消除电缆分布电容、变频器载波频率、变频器输出频率等其他因素的干扰；采用该漏电保护方法，可承受变频器投入时对采样电压造成的较大冲击，不必在启动期间解除漏电保护装置，能够消除在此期间存在的人身触电安全隐患。