地铁施工事故统计分析与研究*

为了解我国城市地铁施工事故规律特征,降低新建地铁线路施工事故发生频率,统计分析2011—2020年全国31个省市自治区（不包括港澳台）地铁施工事故,归纳事故发生时间、事故类型、施工工法的分布特征,基于灰色关联分析法（GRA）对地铁施工事故致因进行分析。研究结果表明:地铁施工事故季节性特征突出,3,8,11月份呈多发态势;科学技术进步和规章制度完善是保证我国轨道交通运营里程高速增长和施工事故率降低的有效手段;事故类型以坍塌为主,且事故造成影响最大;违章作业、设备设施缺陷、地质环境不良和安全监管未贯彻落实分别为“人、物、环、管”4个维度的关键致因因子。     

Electric Accidents in the Production,Transmission, and Distribution of Electric Energy: A Review of the Literature

Many work related electric accidents occurred in electric energy industries and they were very often fatal. The situation of electric accidents in electric companies worldwide is investigated by reviewing the scientific literature, to offer perspectives on the types and kinds of statistics available, the factors regarded as influencing their occurrence, their consequences, and also methodological shortcomings.

Worldwide, reliable comparable data exist and indicate a downward trend in fatal electric accidents. Difficulties were encountered in compiling international statistics because of differences in how accident data were defined and recorded, variations in mandatory practices, lack of suitable data and indices, accident insurance systems, and lack of correlation between technical, financial, and medical aspects.     

Driver Celeration Behavior and the Prediction of Traffic Accidents

A study was undertaken to investigate whether driver celeration (overall mean speed change) behavior can predict traffic accident involvement. Also, to test whether acceleration, deceleration or the combined celeration measure was the better predictor. Bus driver celeration behavior was measured repeatedly in real traffic, driving en route, and correlated with accidents for which the drivers were deemed at least partly responsible. Correlations around .20 were found in several samples between celeration behavior and culpable accidents for a 2-year period. The results show that although celeration behavior is only semi-stable over time, it predicts with some accuracy individual accident involvement over 2 years. The predictive power of acceleration and deceleration was slightly lower than the combined measure, in accordance with theory. The correlations found were strong enough to warrant the use of celeration behavior as a predictive variable for transportation companies in their safety work.     

The Relationship Between Workers’ Safety Culture and Accidents,Near Accidents and Health Problems

One of the dimensions treated as part of a company’s safety culture or climate is workers’ attitudes towards risk and safety. In the present study these personal aspects are defined as workers’ safety culture, which is understood as a way of acting focused on life and taking care of one’s health. A questionnaire on safety culture was filled out by 200 employees of a metallurgical enterprise. Factor analysis was used to determine empirical scales of the questionnaire, whereas variance analysis was used to test hypotheses. The results confirmed the hypotheses that people who experienced accidents, dangerous situations, and—to a lesser extent—health problems had a lower level of safety culture. Nevertheless not all of the scales determined during factor analysis turned out to be significant as far as all kinds of those undesirable situations are concerned. Proposals for future studies are formulated in the conclusion.     

Occupational deaths and injuries by the types of street cleaning process

This study aims to obtain an overall picture of occupational injuries by the types of street cleaning process. Three hundred and fifty-four injured persons were analyzed in terms of the company size and details of the injured persons and accidents. Results show that ‘roadway cleaning’ was the most common type of cleaning process for injuries, followed by ‘sidewalk cleaning,’ ‘going/returning to work by bike’ and ‘lifting/carrying.’ The findings also show that most accidents which occur when ‘going/returning to work by bike’ are in the form of traffic accidents, while in other processes they happen most often in the form of slips. Most of the accidents related to ‘lifting/carrying’ affected workers in their 50s or younger while other processes had a large portion of injured persons in their 50s or older. The findings of this study can be used as baseline data for preventative policies.     

Small scale thin-layer boilover experiments: Physical understanding and modeling of the water sub-layer boiling and the flame enlargement

Boilover is defined as a violent ejection of fuel due to the vaporization of a water sub-layer, resulting in an enormous fire enlargement and formation of fireball and ground fire. This paper focuses on the physical principles behind the thin-layer boilover phenomenon, and on the improvement of the thin-layer boilover modeling. Small scale field and laboratory experiments, with a mixture of diesel and oil, and reservoirs ranging from 0.08 to 0.3 m, have been performed. High-speed visualizations and image processing, in parallel to temperature and mass loss measurements allows to better understand the water boiling, and the consequent flame enlargement. The modeling of the boilover period is done through the calculation of the pre-boilover burnt mass ratio and the boilover intensity based on the mass loss and on the flame enlargement.     

Cause analysis of the fire and explosion during crude oil desulfurization in China

A serious fire and explosion accident that resulted in massive crude oil leakage and severe environmental pollution occurred on 16 July, 2010, in Dalian Port, China. To investigate the root cause of accident and conduct a wide-range investigation, desulfurizing agent JH02, which has a similar ingredient to the desulfurizing agent HD used in Dalian Port, and TS02 were employed in this study to determine the role of desulfurizing agents in the accident. The thermal behavior of crude oil, desulfurizing agents, and their mixtures was measured by using a C80 calorimeter. By using the calorimetric data, the kinetic parameters of the chemical reaction, such as activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and self-accelerating decomposition temperature of crude oil, as well as JH02, TS02, and their mixtures, were calculated and compared. The results indicated that the direct cause of the accident was the thermal runaway initiated by the increasing instability of the crude oil–desulfurizing agent mixture. Excess pressure in the oil pipeline triggered the physical explosion, but it alone was not enough to cause a serious damage. Furthermore, a stable desulfurizing agent such as TS02 could not ensure a safe desulfurizing process. The results of this study would benefit the safety management of desulfurizing processes during production and storage.     

生物质气化火灾爆炸事故BN-LOPA分析

提出一种基于BN-LOPA的生物质气化火灾爆炸事故评价方法。绘制出生物质气化火灾爆炸故障树并转换为贝叶斯网络,计算出的事故发生概率为2.600×10-3,根据风险矩阵得出对应风险等级为10级,因此需要在计划内采取安全措施降低风险。采用贝叶斯网络的向后推导计算基本事件后验概率,找出失效后易导致事故发生的节点,对这些节点设置独立防护层并计算设置后基本事件及顶事件的发生概率。最后得出在设置独立防护层后,生物质气化火灾爆炸事故的发生概率降低至8.068×10-6,对应风险等级从10级降至5级,可满足安全生产的要求。     

核电站FDA安全管理信息流系统模型的构建研究

为了从安全信息的角度完善核电站的事故致因机理，并在实践中加强核电站的安全管理，首先以安全信息为视角，以系统安全行为链为主线，建立核电站FDA安全管理信息流系统模型，该模型由运行操作人员、核电站企业、国家核安全局3条子链和1条必要安全信息主链构成；然后结合模型和核电站具体工作流程，分析得到3个子事故域和1个总事故域，并归纳出核电站安全运行各阶段所需的必要安全信息；最后结合事故域，分析模型在核电站安全管理中的实际应用价值。