污水海洋处置工程多喷口浮射流近区稀释扩散规律研究

结合上海市污水治理二期工程稀释扩散物理模型试验，首次通过量纲分析的方法，对上升管上布置多个喷口时污水的近区稀释扩散规律进行了研究，得出了上升管布置不同喷口个数时的近区稀释度计算公式，所得公式具有一定的适用性，这对于我国较浅水域扩散器的设计具有重要的指导意义。     

测井剖面定量地层对比新技术

根据岩性地层对比原理,本文提出一个测井剖面定量地层对比模式。该模式由三部份组成:1.利用“多变量最优分段方法”将两对比测井剖面的地层进行分段处理;2.利用“爬山法”计算分属不同测井剖面的任意两段地层之间的相似性指标;3.根据相似性指标,利用“动态规划”方法确定地层对比结果。本文还利用上述模式进行了定量地层对比的实例研究,其结果比较令人满意。     

珠江广州西航道农药污染事故监测结果分析

在受敌敌畏农药（DDVP）污染的珠江广州河段内采样监测，通过数据分析，探讨了珠江水体的稀释能力，对其水体状况进行评价。结果显示，经过30h的稀释混合，受污染的水体水质恢复正常。证明了目前珠江广州河段水体状况良好，纳污能力强。     

一种分离培养硫酸盐还原菌的改进方法

On the base of the characteristics of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) growth and dish cultivated method, a new method for isolation and cultivation of SRB is established. It is dilution spread and repeat dish sandwish cultivated method with the exellence of dilution spread and embeded growth, and it can help separation and identification of SRB. The method has simple operation and less equipment. And using this method, the natural SRB drop was successfully gained, and small agar pieces containing SRB drop were acquired in easiness. The brief SRB transfering operation in strict anaerobic condition was in-deed realized. Fig 1, Ref 7.     

水下振动台关键技术的研究

本文从理论和实践两方面分析研究了水下振动台的若干关键技术问题,主要包括运动部件的设计、冷却系统的设计、密封系统的设计、压力平衡系统的设计等。解决了水下振动台设计所存在的难题。     

Bargaining over natural resources: Governments between environmental organizations and extraction firms

We consider the resource-extraction policy of a government that is lobbied by an environmental organization and an extraction firm from foreign countries. To analyze this situation, we propose a sequential Nash bargaining solution: The government bargains with both lobbies simultaneously. Should this trilateral negotiation fail, it chooses one lobby for a bilateral negotiation. The disagreement point then is to bargain with the other lobby. Finally, should this second bilateral negotiation break down, the government chooses the welfare-maximizing policy.As long as cumulative extraction is low, such that stock-dependent extraction costs are also low and extraction profits are high, the environmental organization has a weak bargaining position, but it takes influence to reduce extraction. Once that cumulative extraction has increased so much that extraction profits are below a threshold, the bargaining positions change, and the environmental organization gets compensated by the extraction firm for not letting the trilateral negotiation fail.     

A dynamic model of human dispersal in a land-based economy

This paper presents a dynamic state variable model that examines human dispersal in a land-based economy. In humans, like other animals, many individuals disperse during their lifetimes, with extensive variability in the timing and likelihood of dispersal by individuals of different states. The model places human and non-human dispersal in a common framework, specifically by utilizing a cost-benefit approach. As with other animals, individual access to resources likely plays an important role in shaping human dispersal, and the model explores the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Over a series of time steps, individuals must decide whether to stay in their natal area or disperse, given their states (wealth, marital, and inheritance status) and the environmental constraints on dispersal. Costs of dispersal include time and an initial drop in wealth, while the benefit is the potential of the dispersal area to increase wealth. The model determines whether dispersing or staying results in the highest fitness, where fitness is a function of individual wealth and years married. The model shows that dispersal is favorable under a wide range of environmental conditions, but that it also varies predictably according to individual states. Men of middle wealth values disperse under a wider variety of circumstances than poorer or wealthier men. Wealthy men, who are particularly sensitive to the time cost and mortality risk associated with dispersing, appear to adopt a more conservative dispersal strategy than poorer men, who are more sensitive to the wealth cost and wealth growth rate associated with dispersing. Dispersal behavior is also contingent on its effects on an individual's probability of marrying or inheriting wealth. Finally, the model fosters an examination of how the interaction of life events, and their directions of causation, can be studied. Received: 6 May 1998 / Received in revised form: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

Methods and models in process safety and risk management: Past,present and future

The paper reviews past progress in the development of methods and models for process safety and risk management and highlights the present research trends; also it outlines the opinions of the authors regarding the future research direction in the field. Based on the open literature published in the leading journals in the field of safety, risk and reliability, the review covers the evolution of the methods and models developed for process safety and risk management. The methods and models are categorized as qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid. The progress in the last few decades is discussed in the context of the past. Developments in the current decade formulate the basis of the present trends; future directions for research in these fields are also outlined. The aim of the article is to provide a historical development in this field with respect to the driving forces behind the development. It is expected that it will help researchers and industrial practitioners to gain a better understanding of the existing concepts. At the same time the aim is to provide direction to bridge the existing gaps through research and developments.