对排污权交易的现实思考

排污权交易作为一种制度,在我国尚未完全建立.在准市场机制调整之下的排污权交易市场具有比现行排污收费制度更合理之处.排污权交易制度的目的在于逐步减少污染排放,而非刺激排污.其具有的激励和资源配置功能,不仅能较好地控制排污总量,还能提供更丰富的控制污染的方法和途径.公众甚至可以直接参与对环境的管理.本文作者试图从经济学和竞争法的角度对排污权交易的现实问题作一浅显分析.     

A comparative study of US EPA 1996 and 1999 emission inventories in the west Gulf of Mexico coast region, USA

Emission inventory is one of the required inputs to air quality models. To assist in the urban and regional modeling efforts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has compiled a National Emission Inventory (NEI) for criterion pollutants, and the precursors of ozone and particulate matter (PM). In December 2002, EPA released the 1999 NEI estimates (NEI99), which represent the most recent national emission data. However, the data sets are not in model-ready format for air quality simulations. This present work converts the NEI99 Final Version 2 data sets into Inventory Data Analyzer (IDA) format and processes the data using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system to generate a gridded emission inventory in a domain covering the west Gulf Coast Region, USA. The spatial and diurnal emission characteristics of the gridded emission inventories are then assessed and compared with those of the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96). The NEI99 database contains more complete emission records in both area and point sources. It is also found that NEI99 data exhibit greater emissions with respect to point and mobile sources but smaller emissions with respect to area sources when compared to the corresponding gridded NET96 data in the same study domain. The most distinct differences between the NEI99 and NET96 databases are CO emission of mobile sources, SO2 emissions of point sources, and VOC/PM/NH3/NOx emissions of area and non-road sources. The gridded NEI99 data show low VOC/NOx ratios (<2-5) in the urban areas of the study domain.     

Robust technology policy against emission leakage: The case of upstream subsidies

Asymmetric regulation of a global pollutant between countries can alter the competitiveness of industries and lead to emissions leakage, which hampers countries’ welfare. In order to limit leakage, governments consider supporting domestic trade-exposed firms by subsidizing their investments in abatement technology. The suppliers of such technologies tend to be less than perfectly competitive, particularly when both emissions regulations and advanced technologies are new. In this context of twin market failures, we consider the relative effects and desirability of subsidies for abatement technology. We find a more robust recommendation for upstream subsidies than for downstream subsidies. Downstream subsidies tend to increase global abatement technology prices, reduce pollution abatement abroad and increase emission leakage. On the contrary, upstream subsidies reduce abatement technology prices, and hence also emissions leakage.     

广州白云国际机场飞机大气污染物排放分析

根据收集到的2008-2012年广州白云国际机场航班起降次数，参考《珠江三角洲非道路移动源排放清单开发》飞机污染物估算方法及排放因子，计算出此期间机场飞机大气污染物排放量，并与2010-2012年广州市机动车污染物排放情况对比。结果表明：飞机大气污染物排放量随客运量的增长呈逐年上升趋势，而与机动车排放相比，飞机大气污染物排放量较小，故现阶段仍应以机动车作为移动源污染控制的重点。     

家庭部门生活能源消费碳排放:测度与驱动因素研究

本文运用IPCC的二氧化碳排放量测算方法,在省际层面测度了我国家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放,并基于扩展的STIRPAT和Kaya模型,构建家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放影响因子动态面板数据模型,对我国2003-2012年分省面板数据样本及城乡子样本进行系统GMM估计。本文研究表明,第一,我国城乡家庭部门碳排放总量和人均碳排放在近十年都呈快速上升趋势,家庭部门碳排放的空间分布具有明显的地域差异特征,高碳排放地区主要集中在东、中部地区,西部地区的碳排放水平较低;第二,城乡家庭部门生活能源消费的上期碳排放量对本期碳排放产生重要的正向影响,这反映出我国家庭部门碳排放具有显著的惯性特征和路径依赖性,是一种动态自适应机制;人口规模、居民消费水平、能源消费结构、碳排放强度、能源消费强度和城镇化因素,都对我国居民能源消费碳排放总量及人均碳排放具有显著的影响,城乡之间的家庭能源消费碳排放驱动因素存在差异。本文研究得到如下启示及政策含义:家庭部门碳减排将是一个有步骤、分区域的渐进过程,我国碳减排政策应当兼顾消费升级和碳排放的双重目标,努力构建分层次碳减排的适应性预期机制。具体而言,一方面应着眼于引导和激励居民低碳消费,缓解人口规模增加、消费水平提升和城镇化对家庭部门碳减排的压力;另一方面要通过能源价格改革、财政政策和环境规制政策等优化我国能源消费结构,不断降低煤炭消费比重,提高清洁能源的消费。同时,通过技术创新、设备改造等科技手段提高煤炭利用效率,降低碳排放强度,这些政策将更有利于城镇家庭部门碳减排。     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

精细化工固定源废气采样时机的选择探讨

以某医药企业某产品生产过程为实例,综合各工段生产步骤、时间、废气产生情况及估算的污染物浓度等因素,绘制各污染因子排放规律图,从而确定各污染因子排放浓度(排放量)最大的1 h为最佳采样时机。     

化工装置停工放空过程中VOCs排放及估算方法

通过分析化工企业典型开、停车过程的排污节点，表明停车过程中大气挥发性有机污染物主要来自装置退料结束后挂壁、底部滞留和内部空间蒸气等滞留在设备内部的残余物料。在总结化工装置停工放空过程中大气挥发性有机物来源的基础上，讨论并提出大气污染排放量估算方法。     

秦皇岛市重点工业企业VOCs排放及分布特征

工业企业挥发性有机物(VOCs)污染排放对大气环境影响日益突出,工业源VOCs污染防治成为环境保护的重点工作。为进一步提高秦皇岛市工业源挥发性有机物(VOCs)治理的科学性、针对性和有效性,对2019年秦皇岛市重点排污企业VOCs的排污量、区域分布、排放行业等进行了详细调查分析:秦皇岛市重点工业源VOCs排放总量为6875.83t,排放量最大的区域是秦皇岛经济技术开发区,占比51.1%;排放量最大的行业是交通运输设备制造业,占总排放量的33.5%;溶剂使用源的排放量最大,占比52.3%。     

典型钢铁企业汞排放水平及排放特征研究

以某典型钢铁企业为研究对象,测定企业废气、废水、固废汞排放水平,并分析汞排放特征。研究表明,球团、烧结、高炉工艺废气排口烟尘中汞排放浓度和排放速率明显低于烟气;汞主要以气态形式排放,烧结工艺排口废气汞最高浓度分别是其他2个排口的7倍和3倍。球团、烧结、高炉、电炉四工艺环节中,烧结汞排放速率占四工艺汞排放速率总和的87%。半干法脱硫、氨法脱硫、石灰石石膏脱硫对废气中汞的去除效率分别为90.0%、78.7%和29.9%。企业废水排放未检出汞,脱硫产生固废汞含量明显高于除尘产生固废汞含量,脱硫灰汞含量是脱硫石膏的15倍。