A practical method for small area population estimation

Estimating small area populations requires a compromise between precision and rigour, and resource input. Gloucestershire County Council have developed a method for making annual Parish and Ward estimates which the authors claim combines robustness, economy and simplicity with a degree of rigour, using available data sources. The method is described, and an indication of its accuracy given using the 1981 Census data.     

几种大气预测模式预测结果比较分析

估算模式、AERMOD模式系统、ADMS模式系统均是HJ2.2-2008《环境影响评价技术导则大气环境》中推荐的大气预测模式,为探求此3种大气预测模式预测结果的大小关系规律,选用估算模式、AERMOD模式系统、ADMS模式系统,在简单地形和复杂地形两种条件下,结合一般工业类环评项目中常见的点源、面源案例,对不同预测模式的大气预测结果进行比较分析,得出相应的规律,对环评工作中进一步预测模式的选用具有一定的参考借鉴意义。     

广州白云国际机场噪声污染评价

通过对广州白云国际机场噪声污染现状的分析和评价,表明,飞机起飞和降落时产生的噪声污染严重。地处航线下的荔湾区10多家中小学的教学活动、医院的医疗活动以及居民的生活、学习、工作由于飞机的频繁升降,均受到了不同程度的影响。对拟建的新白云国际机场噪声污染的预测表明,2005年在LWECPN>85dB环境下生活的人数约1.35万,80dB～85dB环境下生活的人数约2.3万,75dB～80dB环境下生活的人数约5.1万,70dB～75dB环境下生活的人数约10.1万。     

云南地震死亡人数定量估算

本文给出了多震区的地区性指数，并通过分析龙陵地震前的预报、警报、强烈有感前震在减轻伤亡中的作用和通海地震伤亡达到最重的实例，提出了人口户外率的概念。     

带有残差修正的GIM(1)模型在工业固体废弃物排放量预测中的应用

基于灰色系统理论，研究和提出了带有残差修正的ＧＩＭ（１）模型，并给出了估计这种模型参数的简捷方法．实例表明，运用该方法得到的模型具有优良的预测精度，从而扩大了灰色预测方法在环境系统中的应用范围．     

中小锅炉烟尘测试中运行出力的估算

GB5468—91中规定：在锅炉烟尘测试中，要求同时测定锅炉运行出力，并规定锅炉运行出力达到该锅炉额定负荷70％以上时．监测数据才能有效。为避免无效监测，提出了用锅炉烟气量、空气过剩系数对锅炉运行出力进行估算．以便调整锅炉运行状况，达到锅炉烟尘测试要求。     

Assessing the likelihood of secondary crashes on freeways with Adaptive Signal Control System deployed on alternate routes

Introduction: Reducing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes will provide significant safety, operational and environmental benefits. This paper presents a method for assessing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes with Adaptive Signal Control Systems (ASCS) deployed on alternate routes that are typically used by diverted freeway traffic to avoid any delay or congestion due to a freeway primary crash. Method: The method includes four steps: (1) identification of secondary crashes, (2) verification of alternate routes, (3) assessment of the likelihood of secondary crashes for freeways with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and non-ASCS (i.e. pre-timed, semi- or fully-actuated) alternate routes, and (4) investigation of unobserved heterogeneity of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Four freeway sections (i.e., two with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and two non-ASCS alternate routes) in South Carolina are considered. Results and Conclusions: Findings from the logistic regression modeling reveal significant reduction in the likelihood of secondary crashes for one freeway section (i.e., Charleston I-26 E) with ASCS deployed on alternate route. Other factors such as rear-end crash, dark or limited light, peak period, and annual average daily traffic contribute to the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Furthermore, random-parameter logistic regression model results for Charleston I-26 E reveal that unobserved heterogeneity of ASCS effect exists across the observations and ASCS are associated with the reduction of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes for 84% of the observations (i.e., primary crashes). Location of the primary crash on the freeway is observed to affect the benefit of ASCS toward freeway secondary crash reduction as the primary crash’s location determines how many upstream freeway vehicles will be able to take the alternate route. Practical Applications: Based on the findings, it is recommended that the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) considers deploying ASCS on alternate routes parallel to freeway sections where high percentages of secondary crashes are found.     

Testing of the Storm Water Management Model Low Impact Development Modules

Stormwater infrastructure designers and operators rely heavily on the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance. Since its inception in the late 1970s, improvements and extensions have been tested and evaluated rigorously to verify the accuracy of the model. As a continuation of this progress, the main objective of this study was to quantify how accurately SWMM simulates the hydrologic activity of low impact development (LID) storm control measures. Model performance was evaluated by quantitatively comparing empirical data to model results using a multievent, multiobjective calibration method. The calibration methodology utilized the PEST software, a Parameter ESTimation tool, to determine unmeasured hydrologic parameters for SWMM’s LID modules. The calibrated LID modules’ Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies averaged 0.81; average percent bias (PBIAS) ?9%; average ratio of root mean square error to standard deviation of measured values 0.485; average index of agreement 0.94; and the average volume error, simulated vs. observed, was +9%. SWMM accurately predicted the timing of peak flows, but usually underestimated their magnitudes by 10%. The average volume reduction, measured outflow volume divided by inflow volume, was 48%. We had more difficulty in calibrating one study, an infiltration trench, which identified a significant limitation of the current version of the SWMM LID module; it cannot simulate lateral exfiltration of water out of the storage layers of a LID storm control measure. This limitation is especially severe for a deep LIDs, such as infiltration trenches. Nevertheless, SWMM satisfactorily simulated the hydrologic performance of eight of the nine LID practices.     

湖库水体对石油类物质的自净能力评价初探

为了合理的预测湖库水体对油田特征污染物的自净能力,建立了突发事件溢油在水面上影响及对水质影响的模型,采用实测与预测相结合的方式对模型的参数进行了确定,同时根据建立的模型选择两个泡沼进行了验证。说明预测结果与实测值有较好的相关性,用湖泡推流衰减模型对湖泡的预测是可行的。     

Experimental study on the influence of flame retardants on the flammability of R1234yf

As an alternative refrigerant, R1234yf shows great environmental friendliness. However, the flammability has a negative impact on its use and promotion. To lower the combustible risk, it's a proper way to mix with nonflammable refrigerants in applications, but the research on the flammability of these blends is still limited. Therefore, the influence of three typical nonflammable refrigerants CO₂, R1336mzz(E) and R1233zd(E) as flame retardants on the flammability of R1234yf was experimentally studied in this paper. With the measurements of flammable limits of R1234yf/CO₂, R1234yf/R1336mzz(E) and R1234yf/R1233zd(E) at different concentrations, the parameters of regression equations for their flammable limits were obtained. The critical suppression concentrations of retardant were determined as 0.575, 0.35 and 0.6, respectively. The results showed that their suppression abilities could be ranked as R1336mzz(E)>CO₂>R1233zd(E). Then the inhibition mechanisms were analyzed, and the differences in flame colors at flammable limits were compared. With the establishment of estimation model for calculating critical suppression concentrations of ternary blends, the critical suppression lines of CO₂/R1234yf/R1336mzz(E) and CO₂/R1234yf/R1233zd(E) were obtained, by which the nonflammable zones of them were preliminarily determined. The results will provide practical guidance for the applications utilizing R1234yf and its blends in safety.