装备使用风险管理模型研究

在军事行动中,使用了大量复杂的装备系统,存在相当多的风险因素。如果对其中的风险因素管理不善,风险转化为事故,将造成极大的损失,严重影响部队的战斗力。装备使用风险管理是针对这一问题提出的概念。装备使用风险管理是在提高绩效和最大化作战能力时,用来识别、评估和控制风险的一个逻辑化的决策过程。本文通过分析装备使用风险管理的系统模型——"人-装备-环境-管理-任务"之间的关系及相互作用,并且详细的说明了装备使用风险管理的过程,危险识别、风险评估、分析风险控制、风险控制决策、实施风险控制、监督与评审等六个步骤的过程模型,探讨了风险管理的实施,并且认为风险管理过程的目标就是达到5M模型的最优化。为部队实施风险管理提供参考。     

高温好氧垃圾堆肥中人工接种初步研究

本文筛选比较了６２５株细菌、１５３株霉菌、２７株放线菌对果胶、淀粉、纤维素和半纤维素的降解能力。选用了降解能力和抗逆能力均强的芽孢杆菌「ＨＢ（３５）０５」、霉菌「Ｍ（２１）０１」和放线菌「ＨＡ（３２）０１」各１株作为种子,进行了人工接种堆肥试验,试验表明,接种１．５％能缩短发酵时间１６ｈ。     

不同磷质量浓度体系中pH变化对铜绿微囊藻和四尾栅藻竞争的影响

铜绿微囊藻和四尾栅藻分别是太湖中最为常见的蓝藻和绿藻.微囊藻在湖泊中形成优势是微囊藻水华发生的重要条件.在模拟太湖水的竞争实验(ρ(磷)分别为0.012,0.112,0.412和1.612 mg/L)中,四尾栅藻均形成优势,而且在稳定期时pH达到10以上.但用0.04 mol/L HCl将pH都降到5.8后,2种藻的增殖都出现明显的变化,在ρ(磷)低于0.412 mg/L时,四尾栅藻优势变得更加明显;而在ρ(磷)为1.612 mg/L时,铜绿微囊藻则形成优势.说明pH对蓝藻和绿藻竞争的影响在不同ρ(磷)的水体中是不同的.      

Sam Mannan and his scientific publications: A life in process safety research

Dr. M. Sam Mannan is one of the true pioneers in the process safety area, spending almost his entire lifetime in process safety and risk research. He was dedicated to ‘make safety second nature’ and published an impressive body of work. An overview of his research helps understanding the process safety area and provides insight in the legacy of this process safety pioneer. In this paper, 327 publications authored by Dr. Mannan from 1999 to 2019 in Web of Science core collection were downloaded and visually analyzed from four perspectives: his publication outputs, collaboration networks, topic areas, and highly cited papers and cited references. The results show a rapidly increasing trend in his research activity, mostly through journal publications. He published in 53 different outlets, with Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries being most frequently selected. Dr. Mannan had a very active and diverse worldwide network, and collaborated with 18 different countries/regions, nearly 90 different institutions and 387 authors. His publications addressed process safety-related topics widely, including safety related to liquefied natural gas, explosions, runaway reactions, inherent safety, flammability and aerosol, and more recently resilience. Dr. Mannan's most cited paper focused on ‘fuzzy risk matrix’, whereas the most frequently cited reference in his work is ‘thermal hazard evaluation by an accelerating rate calorimeter’ by Townsend DI in 1980. Based on his most recent research activity, promising future directions for process safety research include resilience linked to risk assessment and management, for instance through the ‘safety triad’ concept he promoted shortly before passing away.     

Production disruption management for R/M integrated supply chain using system dynamics methodology

The impacts of production disruption in Remanufacturing/Manufacturing (R/M) integrated supply chain on the sales and the methods of production disruption management were studied. A system dynamics model for the R/M integrated supply chain with production disruption was improved by system dynamics methodology. The numerical examples were shown to illustrate the simulation results. The impacts of different recovery times of production disruption on the sales were presented. In order to mitigate the disruption risks and ensure the sales at the needed sales ratio, the methods for setting multi-echelon inventory levels before the occurring of the production disruption and the methods for making back-up plans after the production disruption occurs were given.     

Effect of Fe-chelating complexes on a novel M2FC performance with ferric chloride and ferricyanide catholytes

As an effort to better utilize the microbial fuel cell (MFC) technology, we previously proposed an innovative MFC system named M2FC consisting of ferric-based MFC part and ferrous-based fuel cell (FC) part. In this reactor, ferric ion, the catholyte in the MFC part, was efficiently regenerated by the FC part with the generation of additional electricity. When both units were operated separately, the ferric-based MFC part produced approximately 1360 mW m⁻² of power density with FeCl₃ as catholyte and Fe-citrate as anolyte. The ferrous-based FC part with FeCl₃ as catholyte and Fe-EDTA as anolyte displayed the highest power density (1500 mW m⁻²), while that with ferricyanide as catholyte and Fe-noligand as anolyte had the lowest power density (380 mW m⁻²). The types of catholytes and chelating complexes as anolyte were found to play important roles in the reduction of ferric ions and oxidation of ferrous ion. Linear sweep voltammetry results supported that the cathode electrolytes were electrically active and these agreed well with the M2FC reactor performance. These results clearly showed that ligands played critical role in the efficiency and rate for recycling iron ion and thus the M2FC performance.     

基于模糊综合评判的汶川8.0级地震重灾区滑坡泥石流气候风险评估

用1971-2000年的30年逐日降水量资料,按旬统计汶川地震重灾县5-12月各旬的雨日、中雨日、大雨日、暴雨日的平均日数和气候概率,根据地震重灾区实际地质环境条件,降低强降雨强度条件,基于模糊综合评判法,按照最大隶属度原则对汶川特大地震重灾区的39个县进行地质灾害时空气候风险评估。结果表明:重灾区的地质灾害气候风险指数值存在两个高值期间,一个是5月中旬至7月上旬,另一个是8月下旬至9月下旬。而10月下旬至次年4月,重灾区降雨明显减少,绝大部分地区没有地质灾害气候风险;从地域分布来看,高风险区域主要集中在重灾区的西部和中部,风险等级为3～4级(风险较大或很大),东部地区风险等级为1～2级(中等风险或风险较小),但7月下旬高等级风险区位置集中在重灾区的南部和东部。     

汶川8.0级地震路堑墙震害特征及机理分析

通过对2005年竣工的都江堰至映秀的三级公路的调查,分析了路堑墙的汶川8.0级地震震害模式;以浆砌片石典型解体崩毁工点为例,将基于抗震设计规范的验算与实震情况比较,认为现行抗震规范是按照刚性挡土墙进行设计的,对于"柔性挡土墙"并不完全适用;通过拟静力法进行计算认为墙后坡度越大,挡墙稳定性越差,未超过一定坡度时主动土压力系数增长缓慢,当超过一定坡度时,主动土压力系数急剧增长。     

广州市机动车排气工况法检测政策绩效评估

2011年6月1日广州市正式实施在用车排气污染定期检查与强制维护制度(简称I/M制度)。本文通过对广州市机动车污染现状的分析,以及简易工况法3个月的运行情况,说明I/M制度的实施有效控制机动车尾气污染,其检测方法的优点主要表现在三方面:1、增加了检测项目,从源头控制机动车尾气中影响环境空气质量的污染物排放;2、检测方法通过模拟汽车在道路上实际行驶的状况进行排气检测,具有先进性;3、对排气超标车辆实施在用车强制维护制度。     

广州市实施I/M简易瞬态工况检测方法的环境效果分析

采用简易瞬态工况法对在用车进行检测,能够更为有效地筛选高排放车辆.2007—2009年广州市轻型汽油车的简易瞬态工况法的初检数据表明,国Ⅰ排放标准实施以前(简称"国Ⅰ前")车辆和国Ⅰ及以后排放标准车辆排放超限值比例分别为20.1%和17.6%.简易瞬态工况法复检数据得到的国Ⅰ前和国Ⅰ及以后车辆经维护后能够达标的比例分别为76.0%和64.7%,且经过有效维护后超标车辆的平均排放水平有较大比例的削减.同时,采用修正的MOBILE5模型对广州市轻型汽油车排放进行模拟.结果发现,广州市2009年轻型汽油车的CO、HC和NO_x排放量分别为24.4×10⁴、3.8×10⁴和1.8×10⁴ t.如果考虑I/M制度实施及实际执行率,复检不达标车辆在全部淘汰情景下,2009年广州市轻型汽油车排放的CO、HC和NO_x分别能削减4.20×10⁴、0.58×10⁴和0.15×10⁴ t,占全部轻型汽油车的削减比例分别为17.2%、15.3%和8.2%;而在全部置换为国Ⅳ新车情景下,3种污染物分别能削减4.12×10⁴、0.57×10⁴和0.14×10⁴ t,削减比例分别为16.9%、15.0%和8.0%.国Ⅰ前及国Ⅰ车辆对CO和HC削减量的贡献达到90%左右,对NO_x削减量的贡献也在85%左右.