Analysis of motorcycle accidents using association rule mining-based framework with parameter optimization and GIS technology

IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis.     

Development of inherent safety and health index for formulated product design

The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method.     

Subjective annoyance caused by indoor low-level and low frequency noise and control method

IntroductionItwasbelievedthatonlyhigh_levelnoisecouldcausenoisepollution.Theinfluenceoflow_levelnoisehasnotbeenwidelynoticed.Thisresearchdiscoveredthatundercertainconditionsthelow_levelnoise,especiallylowfrequencynoise,mayevencausehigherannoyanceresponse.…     

中国土地可持续利用指标体系的理论与方法

制定土地资源可持续性指标体系是《21世纪议程》中对各国提出的科学技术优先研究领域 ,国土资源部已开始了该研究项目。论文就此对中国土地资源可持续利用指标体系的理论与方法从整体上进行了探讨。首先回顾了国内外土地可持续利用研究的进展 ,分析归纳了国外可持续发展指标体系研究状况及可借鉴之处 ;指出在土地可持续利用指标与评价的研究中 ,必须从3个方面开展深入探讨。第一是土地利用分区及制定区域性土地可持续利用指标体系 ;第二是研究制定主要土地利用系统可持续利用指标体系及其阈值 ;第三是研究制定典型区域(以县域为单位)土地可持续利用指标体系及其阈值。只有把3个方面的研究有机融合起来 ,互相反馈 ,互为依存 ,才能保证土地可持续利用指标体系的科学性、系统性和实用性。     

一个水质风险率计算的随机模型

将水质当作随机变量，基于随机点过程理论，构造了水质超阈值风险分析的成丛随机点过程复合（ＣＳＰＰＣ）模型，并应用于深圳市深圳河河口段水体ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ浓度超阈值的风险率估算，由实际资料对河段水体ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ浓度超阈值点过程的分布进行了拟合优度试验，获得满意计算结果。     

复合生态系统非线性累积效应响应因子的阈值模型

基于流域系统累积环境效应的产生机理，以系统动力学特征和累积环境效应-反应过程特征曲线为依据，分析了复合生态环境承载力及其适应性，提出并建立了非线性累积效应响应的指标阈值模型及因子响应程度的客观、动态量化方法。模型的建立对系统可持续发展的评估决策具有一定的指导作用。     

Weaning in the guinea pig (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cavia aperea</Emphasis> f. <Emphasis Type="Italic">porcellus</Emphasis>): Who decides and by what measure?

Offspring should be selected to influence maternal effort to maximize their own fitness, whereas mothers are selected to limit investment in present progeny. In mammals, this leads to a conflict over the amount of milk provided and the timing of weaning. The intensity and time course of such conflict has so far mostly been investigated experimentally in altricial rodents. However, it is expected that offspring options for conflict will depend on developmental state. We therefore investigated in the highly precocial domestic guinea pig (Cavia aperea f. porcellus) who decides over nursing performance and weaning and how pup state influences these decisions. Specifically, we tested whether a threshold mass of pups predicts weaning time. By exchanging older litters against neonates and vice versa, we produced a situation in which females differed in lactational stage from the cross-fostered pups. Our results indicate that females decide about the timing of weaning, as cross-fostered younger pups were weaned at a much younger age than controls and older pups benefited from continuing lactation of foster mothers. Growth rates did not differ in the treatment groups, and different weaning ages resulted in differing weaning mass refuting the hypothesis that weaning is based on a threshold mass of offspring. This constitutes clear evidence that in a precocial rodent, the guinea pig, decisions about maternal care are primarily determined by maternal state and little influenced by pup state despite the extreme precociality of offspring. We suggest that precocial pups show little resistance to early weaning when food is abundant, as they reach sufficient nutritional independence by the middle of lactation to enable independent survival.     

Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.     

Olfactory cues,genetic relatedness and female mate choice in the agile antechinus (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Antechinus agilis</Emphasis>)

Females show mate preferences for males that are genetically dissimilar to themselves in a variety of taxa, but how females choose these males is not clearly understood. In this study, we examined the effects of olfactory stimuli and genetic relatedness on female mate choice in a small carnivorous marsupial, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), during two breeding seasons. Captive female antechinus in oestrus were provided with a combination of male urine and body scent from two novel males, one more genetically similar and one more dissimilar to the females, in a Y-maze olfactometer. Genetic relatedness between females and pairs of males was determined using highly polymorphic, species-specific, microsatellite markers. Females consistently chose to visit the scents of males that were genetically dissimilar to themselves first, spent significantly more time near the source of those scents and showed more sexual and non-exploratory behaviours near those scents. These data demonstrate that chemosensory cues are important in mate choice in the agile antechinus and that females prefer males that are genetically dissimilar to themselves.     

有机物生物降解极限浓度的探讨

讨论了有关有机物生物降解极限浓度（Smin)的定义，介绍了热力学测定方法、动力学测定方法和扩散测定方法等3种测定极限浓度的方法。正确测定有机物生物降解极限浓度对开发微量有机物生物高度净化新技术，寻求提高现有生物处理技术净化效果的途径，污染环境的修复等都具有极其重要的意义。