基于粗糙集和BP神经网络的流域水资源脆弱性预测研究——以淮河流域为例

水资源是一种重要的自然资源和经济资源,对其未来的脆弱性进行预测可以预估研究区未来的水安全状况,对其脆弱性问题做出预警,从而及时采取治理措施。因此,合理科学的水资源脆弱性预测研究是缓解水资源脆弱性的有效手段。目前,水资源脆弱性研究主要是针对水资源现状进行评价,对其未来状况的预测较少。集成了粗糙集和BP神经网络两种方法,首先采用改进了的盲目删除法对构建的流域水资源脆弱性评价指标体系进行约简,其次通过BP神经网络拟合约简后的指标数据与脆弱度之间的映射关系,构建流域水资源脆弱性评价预测模型。基于之前研究的样本数据和脆弱性结果,探讨淮河流域未来的水资源脆弱性状况。结果表明:淮河流域2015年、2020年和2025年的水资源脆弱度分别为0.305、0.359和0.390,处于轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的状况,除2015年脆弱性状况有所好转以外,2020年和2025年的水资源脆弱性程度与近几年相比有所加剧,根据指标数据可知该现象主要是受年降水量、人均用水量、万元GDP废水排放量、垦殖指数、有效灌溉面积比和干旱面积受灾比6个指标的影响,为避免水资源脆弱性的加剧,应当有针对性的加强这几个方面的管理和控制。     

Integrated Water Resources Management: From general principles to its implementation by the state. The case of Burkina Faso

In 2000, the Global Water Partnership (GWP) as the main advocate of the concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), proposed a definition that is now the reference, despite the ambiguity that persists in its interpretation. At the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, the State representatives committed themselves to launch "plans for integrated water resources management and water efficiency by 2005". Some states immediately honoured this commitment by adopting new national water policies inspired by IWRM principles. Do these implementation plans respond to all the challenges of the IWRM? Or have these states simply reorganized their water resource policies to give an impression of conforming to the framework? In response to these questions, we present a history of IWRM and its conflicting interpretations followed by a case study of reforms enacted in Burkina Faso, to highlight some problems which are inherent to IWRM and how IWRM was transposed on a national scale.     

河北省资源文明城市社区建设对策研究

本文针对河北省资源文明城市、社区建设的经济社会背景以及省辖主要城市的社会经济和资源状况,研究了资源文明城市、资源文明社区的建设和限制因素,概述了能源和矿产资源型、港址资源型、人文旅游资源型城市以及白洋淀水乡社区和西柏坡革命纪念地社区的总体规划方案,提出了资源文明城市和资源文明社区建设的基本对策。     

COMPREHENSIVE INFORMATION RETRIEVAL IN THE FIELD OF WATER RESOURCES1

The ages-old and ever-growing need for communication and information retrieval among scientists has found expression in the development of indexes, abstracts, reviews and combinations or variations of such. A short review of such efforts is followed by a discussion of efforts along these lines in the new field of water resources science and technology. Such undertakings as the Information Retrieval System of the American Society of Civil Engineers and of the U.S. Water Resources Research Office are compared with that of the American Water Resources Association.     

Bacterial water quality: Springs and streams in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Water samples from streams and springs in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park were analyzed for fecal coliform, fecal streptococcus, and total coliform bacteria. Levels of bacteria were found to be highly variable but related to elevation, time of year, type of water source, and water level of the streams. Visitors did not seem to be major contributors to bacterial contamination. Levels of fecal coliform and total coliform in most water samples were unsuitable for drinking without treatment. Tennessee state standards for body contact recreation (swimming and wading) were exceeded in a few samples but none from streams suitable for swimming. As a result of these findings, park managers increased efforts to inform visitors of the need to treat drinking water and removed improvements at backcountry springs which tended to give the springs the image of safe, maintained water sources.     

Conservation and management of the American crocodile

The American crocodile is a rare and endangered species, the range of which has contracted to disjunct locations such as Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Panama, and southern Florida. In an attempt to determine what factors might be limiting population growth, an extensive collaborative research program was conducted in 1978–82 in southern Florida. Limiting factors explicitly studied included climate, hurricanes, population dispersion, nesting habitat, fertility, predation, nest chamber environment, juvenile survivorship, artificial mortality, disturbance, and environmental contamination. No single natural factor limits the population, although in concert various factors result in low adult recruitment rates. Such natural limitations explain the natural rarity of this tropical species at the temperate limits of its range. Two artificial sources of mortality are death of adults on roads and the flooding of nests by high groundwater tables. These sources of mortality are potentially controllable by the appropriate management agencies. Active management, by such means as protection of individuals, habitat preservation and enhancement, nest site protection, and captive breeding, is also appropriate for assuring the survival of a rare species. The American crocodile has survived in southern Florida in face of extensive human occupancy of parts of its former nesting habitat, demonstrating the resilience of a threatened species. This case history illustrates the efficacy of conducting research aimed at testing specific management hypotheses, the importance of considering biographical constraints limiting population status in peripheral populations, the need for active management of rare species, and the role of multiple reserves in a conservation and management strategy.     

长江口北支湿地资源和环境现状调查

调查了长江口支湿地环境现状，分析了评价长江口北支湿地的环境质量。指出，长江口北支湿地有着得天独厚的地理位置和自然条件，是世界范围内极具代表性十分重要的湿地，拥有丰富的水资源，动植物资源，滩涂资源等。近年来，由于长江上游河水质量下降，启东和海门经内河流向长江的城市生活污水，启东沿江建设的工业带，对北支口湿地环境质量产生了较大的影响。调查结果表明，长江口北支口水域主要污染物为COD，氨氮等，其污染程度呈现出以下规律：平水期（污染）＞丰水期（污染）＞枯水期（污染）。长江口北支区域陆地土壤中主要污染物为重金属元素镉，铅，锌以及滴滴涕，其中镉与滴滴涕达《土壤环境质量标准》（GB15618－1995）中三级标准，其他指标达一级标准。     

皂化废水的资源化治理技术

采用预处理后与锅炉烟气联合治理，废水循环回用的工艺治理高浓度碱性皂化废水，使皂化废水作为一项资源得到了充分的利用，取得了较好的环境和经济效益。