中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变,因此,碳排放不可避免地会出现一定幅度的增加。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法（Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method,LMD）,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995-2004年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率都呈倒“U”。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的中国碳排放量增长。     

Modeling thermal analysis for predicting thermal hazards relevant to transportation safety and runaway reaction for 2,2′-azobis(isobutyronitrile)

The pure decomposition behavior of 2,2′-azobis (isobutyronitrile) (AIBN) and its physical phase transformation were examined and discussed. The thermal decomposition of this self-reactive azo compound was explored using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to elucidate the stages in the progress of this chemical reaction. DSC was used to predict the kinetic and process safety parameters, such as self-accelerating decomposition temperature (SADT), time to maximum reaction rate under adiabatic conditions (TMR_ad), and apparent activation energy (E_a), under isothermal and adiabatic conditions with thermal analysis models. Moreover, vent sizing package 2 (VSP2) was applied to examine the runaway reaction combined with simulation and experiments for thermal hazard assessment of AIBN. A thorough understanding of this reaction process can identify AIBN as a hazardous and vulnerable chemical during upset situations. The sublimation and melting of AIBN near its apparent onset decomposition temperature contributed to the initial steps of the reaction and explained the exothermic attributes of the peaks observed in the calorimetric investigation.     

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析方法的比较研究

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析是进行生命线工程系统规划、设计、改造与优化的基础。因此 ,寻找一种高效的适应性强的系统可靠性分析方法对实际工程应用具有重要的意义。本文主要介绍两种高效的网络系统两终端连通可靠性分析方法———递推分解算法和有序二分决策图算法。首先 ,分别对两种算法的原理及实现过程进行了详细的论述和说明 ,并且用c语言编制了二分决策图算法的计算程序。然后 ,利用这两种方法及随机模拟算法对 2 0个以往研究中的经典算例和两个实际工程网络———河南省电力网和上海市浦西供水管网 ,进行了网络系统抗震连通可靠性分析。通过对实例分析结果的比较研究 ,得到了一些经验性的结论 ,以期为优化设计工程网络时选择系统可靠性的分析工具提供参考。研究表明 ,由于递推分解算法具有适应性强和能够求得问题近似解的优点 ,因此有良好的实际工程应用前景。     

Thermal hazard accident investigation of hydrogen peroxide mixing with propanone employing calorimetric approaches

Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), historically, due to its broad applications in the chemical industries, has caused many serious fires and explosions around the world. Its thermal hazards may also be incurred by an incompatible reaction with other chemicals, and a runaway reaction may be induced in the last stage. This study applied thermal analytical methods to explore the H₂O₂ leading to these accidents by incompatibility and to discuss what might be formed by the upset situations. Thermal hazard analysis contained a solvent, propanone (CH₃COCH₃, so-called acetone), which was deliberately selected to mix with H₂O₂ for investigating the degree of thermal hazard. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2) were employed to evaluate the thermal hazard of H₂O₂. The results indicated that H₂O₂ is highly hazardous while mixed with propanone, as a potential contaminant. The time to maximum rate (TMR) was used as emergency response time in the chemical industries. Therefore, TMR of H₂O₂ was calculated to be 70 min for runaway reaction (after T₀) and TMR of H₂O₂/propanone was discovered to be 27 min only. Fire and explosion hazards could be successfully lessened if the safety-related data are properly imbedded into manufacturing processes.     

膨胀聚苯乙烯热分解动力学分析和寿命预测

针对既有聚苯乙烯泡沫类外墙外保温系统的防火问题,在空气和氮气气氛下对非阻燃和阻燃型膨胀聚苯乙烯泡沫进行了热重分析。样品由10℃/min、20℃/min、40℃/min和50℃/min四个升温速率从室温加热至800℃。热分解动力学参数由Flynn-Wall-Ozawa(FWO)等转化率方法和多参数非线性回归方法(multivariate non-linear re-gression method)计算,结果表明六溴环十二烷(HBCD)阻燃剂可一定程度上提高EPS的热稳定性。EPS在空气和氮气气氛下热解可认为是单步反应。非阻燃聚苯乙烯泡沫在空气和氮气气氛下的热解过程可由自催化n阶反应机理描述。阻燃EPS在空气气氛下的热解机理为自催化n阶反应,在氮气气氛下则为n阶反应机理。基于动力学参数和反应机理,对聚苯乙烯泡沫在不同温度下的寿命进行了预测。     

4种硝酸酯热安定性的绝热试验研究

利用绝热加速量热仪(ARC)对硝酸正丙酯(NPN)、硝酸异丙酯(IPN)、太根(TEGDN)、敌根(DEGDN)4种硝酸酯的热稳定性进行了绝热试验研究,得到绝热放热曲线和热分解特征参数。分析了4种物质分解过程的特点,对测试结果进行了修正。计算得到动力学参数和自加速分解温度SADT,以此作为评估热安定性的判据。结果表明,4种硝酸酯在外界热作用下容易发生分解,反应速度较快,伴随明显的热效应和压力效应。4种硝酸酯的热安定性由好到差排序为:IPN、NPN、TEGDN、DEGDN。     

A new approach to spatial source apportionment of haze pollution in large scale and its application in China

Long-lasting expansion of haze pollution in China has already presented a stern challenge to regional joint prevention and control. There is an urgent need to enlarge and reconstruct the coverage of joint prevention and control of air pollution in key area. Air quality models can identify and quantify the regional contribution of haze pollution and its key components with the help of numerical simulation, but it is difficult to be applied to larger spatial scale due to the complexity of model parameters. The time series analysis can recognize the existence of spatial interaction of haze pollution between cities, but it has not yet been used to further identify the spatial sources of haze pollution in large scale. Using econometric framework of time series analysis, this paper developed a new approach to perform spatial source apportionment. We applied this approach to calculate the contribution from spatial sources of haze pollution in China, using the monitoring data of particulate matter (PM_2.5) across 161 Chinese cities. This approach overcame the limitation of numerical simulation that the model complexity increases at excess with the expansion of sample range, and could effectively deal with severe large-scale haze episodes.     

The inhibitory combustion reaction performance and tail gas analysis of composite ultra-fine dry powder extinguishing agent containing different additives

For lack of an extinguishing agent with high-efficiency, non-toxic and environmentally friendly, a new type of extinguishing agent was fabricated to solve such an urgent problem. In this study, the zinc borate (ZB) and ferrocene (Fe(Cp)₂) were utilized as two additives for extinguishants to suppress combustion reaction and the toxicity of the tail gas was detected. The mass fraction of ZB corresponding to the optimal inhibitory effect was determined to be 0.5–1.5%, by contrast, the optimum interval of Fe(Cp)₂ was detected as 0.5–1.0%. Similarly, with the increasing proportion of the two additives, the homologous inhibitory action was gradually weakened. From the perspective of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), it was indicated that the ZB accelerated the pyrolysis process of the extinguishant, making its thermal decomposition process more thoroughly. Meanwhile, the differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) demonstrated that the decomposition efficiency was markedly improved when the amount of ZB was maintained at 0.5–1.5%. Besides, the tail gas tests were implemented to assess the extent of toxic and harmful properties. In terms of the carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) generated, once the mass fraction of ZB and Fe(Cp)₂ was less than 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, the concentration of CO and CO₂ was distinctly lower than that without additives. Moreover, the inhibitory ability on nitrogen oxides (NOx) was enhanced when the mass fraction of the two additives was kept below 1.0%. The results confirmed that a more practical extinguishant was proposed and it can provide guidance for the application and development of extinguishants.     

太空环境下锂离子电池热失控与火灾的研究展望

综述了锂离子电池的热失控机理,介绍了由于电池内部电解液、电池隔膜和电极材料分解的链式热反应过程而引发的热失控和火灾现象。同时,讨论了锂离子电池在微重力太空环境中可能产生的烟黑浓度倍增,加速火蔓延,火焰喷射等极端火行为。进而探讨了开展锂离子电池的低压、落塔和抛物飞行等地面实验模拟太空微重力燃烧的方法可行性,建立数值模型预测太空微重力环境下锂离子电池热失控临界条件与火灾行为的必要性,以及如何通过基础研究科学地指导空间站电池热管理和消防系统的设计。     

基于火探管式的锂离子电池灭火技术研究

为研究锂离子电池灭火方案,基于火探管灭火技术同时利用新型清洁灭火剂Novec 1230,组装成火探管灭火系统。在灭火测试平台上以功率为200 W的电热管作为外热源引发单电池或电池模组热失控,通过改变火探管的布置位置,记录相应的灭火行为以及灭火效率,并对实验结果进行了分析。研究结果表明,当火探管灭火系统直接布置在电池正上方时,在起火后的5.6s内控制火情;随着灭火剂用量增加可以显著降低体系温度,防止电池复燃以及连锁热失控现象发生;火探管有效覆盖区域外的失控电池作为热源将继续加热临近电池,引发连锁热失控,造成灭火系统失效;根据电池热失控后的燃烧行为以及传热行为,提出相应的火探管灭火系统复合方案。