Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

某热处理厂火灾事故的故障树分析研究

故障树分析法(FTA)是根据系统可能发生的事故或已经发生的事故结果,来研究与事故发生有关的原因、条件和规律,进而实施危险辨识的系统工程方法。本文通过对一起火灾事故的FTA分析,研究相应的控制措施。     

Using Sound to Reduce Visual Distraction from In-vehicle Human–Machine Interfaces

Objective: Driver distraction and inattention are the main causes of accidents. The fact that devices such as navigation displays and media players are part of the distraction problem has led to the formulation of guidelines advocating various means for minimizing the visual distraction from such interfaces. However, although design guidelines and recommendations are followed, certain interface interactions, such as menu browsing, still require off-road visual attention that increases crash risk. In this article, we investigate whether adding sound to an in-vehicle user interface can provide the support necessary to create a significant reduction in glances toward a visual display when browsing menus.

Methods: Two sound concepts were developed and studied; spearcons (time-compressed speech sounds) and earcons (musical sounds). A simulator study was conducted in which 14 participants between the ages of 36 and 59 took part. Participants performed 6 different interface tasks while driving along a highway route. A 3 × 6 within-group factorial design was employed with sound (no sound /earcons/spearcons) and task (6 different task types) as factors. Eye glances and corresponding measures were recorded using a head-mounted eye tracker. Participants’ self-assessed driving performance was also collected after each task with a 10-point scale ranging from 1 = very bad to 10 = very good. Separate analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were conducted for different eye glance measures and self-rated driving performance.

Results: It was found that the added spearcon sounds significantly reduced total glance time as well as number of glances while retaining task time as compared to the baseline (= no sound) condition (total glance time M = 4.15 for spearcons vs. M = 7.56 for baseline, p =.03). The earcon sounds did not result in such distraction-reducing effects. Furthermore, participants ratings of their driving performance were statistically significantly higher in the spearcon conditions compared to the baseline and earcon conditions (M = 7.08 vs. M = 6.05 and M = 5.99 respectively, p =.035 and p =.002).

Conclusions: The spearcon sounds seem to efficiently reduce visual distraction, whereas the earcon sounds did not reduce distraction measures or increase subjective driving performance. An aspect that must be further investigated is how well spearcons and other types of auditory displays are accepted by drivers in general and how they work in real traffic.     

Numerical simulation of premixed methane–air deflagration in a semi-confined obstructed chamber

In this paper, large eddy simulation coupled with a turbulent flame speed cloure (TFC) subgrid combustion model has been utilized to simulate premixed methane–air deflagration in a semi-confined chamber with three obstacles mounted inside.The computational results are in good agreement with published experimental data, including flame structures, pressure time history and flame speed. The attention is focused on the flame flow field interaction, pressure dynamics, as well as the mechanism of obstacle-induced deflagration. It is found that there is a positive feedback mechanism established between the flame propagation and the flow field. The pressure time history can be divided into four stages and the pseudo-combustion concept is proposed to explain the pressure oscillation phenomenon. The obstacle-induction mechanism includes direct effect and indirect effect, but do not always occur at the same time.     

The Effect of Local Biomass Projects on Energy Balance and GHG Emission: A Life Cycle Approach

Emerging attention has been given to the use of biomass in local areas for its contribution to reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating global warming. The objective of the present study is to develop a method that quantitatively assesses the effects of local biomass projects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. A practical method based on a life cycle approach is proposed and applied to a case of bioethanol project in Miyako Islands of Japan. The project is aiming to produce bioethanol from molasses within the islands, and to replace the entire gasoline consumed in the islands to E3 fuel (i.e., a mixture of 3% ethanol and 97% gasoline by volume). The assessment using the developed method revealed that, first, the complete shift from gasoline to E3 fuel allows for decreases in fossil fuel consumption and GHG emission. Second, the performance of the project is improved by the integration of the ethanol plant and the sugar factory. Moreover, the assessment found that, in small-scale bioethanol projects, the contribution of capital goods to life cycle fuel consumption and GHG emission is not negligible.     

Application of an odd/even predominance of n-alkanes in oil–source rock correlation: taking the lower Paleozoic strata of the Tarim Basin as an example

The composition and distribution of n-alkanes carbon numbers reflect the source of kerogenic organic matter, sedimentary environment, and maturity of the rocks. The comparison results of the n-alkanes GC (gas chromatography) chromatograms in the Tazhong Low Uplift show that the n-alkanes of the source rocks in Upper Ordovician display an odd carbon number predominance. At the same time, Cambrian–Lower Ordovician exhibit an even carbon number predominance. The correlation between oil and source rock illustrates that crude oils in the fields of well TZ10-12 and well TZ24 stem from the Upper Ordovician source rocks. The origins of the crude oils in the fields of well TZ161-162 and well TZ45 are Cambrian–Lower Ordovician. The strata corresponding to the crude oils with odd/even carbon number predominance match the oil–source rock correlation. Thus, the characteristics of odd/even carbon number predominance in n-alkane compounds are effective for oil–source rock correlation in the Tazhong Low Uplift, Tarim Basin.     

Carbon sequestration and soil microbes in purple paddy soil as affected by long-term fertilization

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration impacts on food security and climate change and may be affected by soil microbes in fertilized croplands. A 12-year field experiment under the rice–wheat system was used to evaluate the effect of the long-term fertilization on the SOC accumulation, culturable soil microbes, and their interaction in purple paddy soil. Results showed that varied fertilizations resulted in a significant increase of the SOC content and stock in the plow layer, as well as rise in populations of major soil microbes, including bacteria, actinomycetes, and fungi compared with no fertilization. Soil with combined application of chemical NPK fertilizer and organic amendment (pig manure or rice straw return) on average had the highest organic carbon content and stock, amounts of bacteria, actinomycetes, and fungi, which were 7.8%, 5.8%, 75.8%, 130.5%, and 16.2% higher than the NPK fertilization alone. Fertilization differentially altered populations of the functional anaerobic bacteria in paddy soil. With the combined application of chemical NPK fertilizer and organic amendment, soil displayed higher amounts of anaerobic cellulolytic bacteria, anaerobic fermentative bacteria, hydrogen-producing acetogen, methanogenic bacteria, denitrifying bacteria, and sulphate-reducing bacteria than that with the NPK fertilization alone or no fertilization. Populations of all three major soil microbes showed significantly positive correlations with the SOC content, indicating their interaction was of mutual promotion. Data suggest that the combined application of the NPK fertilizer with organic amendment especially by the rice straw return is recommended to sustain the soil biological fertility and mitigate the emission of the greenhouse gas by the SOC sequestration in purple paddy soil.     

Rangeland dynamics of southern Ethiopia: (2). Assessment of woody vegetation structure in relation to land use and distance from water in semi-arid Borana rangelands

The structure and advancement of woody vegetation was studied in a semi-arid rangeland of southern Ethiopia under three land-use systems (communal land, a government ranch and a traditional grazing reserve enclosure) and along a distance gradient (near, middle and far) from water sources. A total of 54 woody plant species were identified. Based on the subjective opinions of the pastoralists, 85% of the identified woody plants have forage values to livestock. Cadaba farinsoa, Ormocarpum trichocarpum, Rhus natalensis, Acacia brevispica, Cordia gharaf and Hibiscus sparseaculeatus were reported to have fair to good palatability. Tree equivalent (TE) density of all woody plants combined was greater (P <0.01) in the government ranch (1) 188 TE ha(-1)) and the communal land (1083 TE ha(-1)) than in the traditional grazing reserve (419 TE ha(-1)), whereas this did not vary significantly (P >0.05) along the distance gradient from water. The most important encroaching woody plant species in the study areas were in descending order: Commiphora africana, Acacia drepanolobium, A. brevispica, Acacia. tortilis, Grewia tembensis and Lannea floccosa. The density of individual encroaching woody plant species along the distance gradient from water was not consistent. All encroaching woody species had the highest TE density in the communal land. The prevalence of these species followed the pattern of intensity of use within the communal grazing area. Most of the woody species had the highest abundance in the height class >0-2m regardless of land use and distance gradient from water. This study investigated the advance of severe woody encroachment in the communal and government sites as well as along the distance gradient from water. Some of the important contributing factors that can be suggested are heavy grazing pressure (in both the communal and government sites), expansion of cultivation and reduced mobility of livestock due to settlement of the pastoralists in the communal land.     

Gathering “wild” food in the city: rethinking the role of foraging in urban ecosystem planning and management

Recent “green” planning initiatives envision food production, including urban agriculture and livestock production, as desirable elements of sustainable cities. We use an integrated urban political ecology and human–plant geographies framework to explore how foraging for “wild” foods in cities, a subversive practice that challenges prevailing views about the roles of humans in urban green spaces, has potential to also support sustainability goals. Drawing on research from Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and Seattle, we show that foraging is a vibrant and ongoing practice among diverse urban residents in the USA. At the same time, as reflected in regulations, planning practices, and attitudes of conservation practitioners, it is conceptualised as out of place in urban landscapes and an activity to be discouraged. We discuss how paying attention to urban foraging spaces and practices can strengthen green space planning and summarise opportunities for and challenges associated with including foragers and their concerns.     

Air quality assessment by tree bark biomonitoring in urban, industrial and rural environments of the Rhine Valley: PCDD/Fs, PCBs and trace metal evidence

Tree barks were used as biomonitors to evaluate past atmospheric pollution within and around the industrial zones of Strasbourg (France) and Kehl (Germany) in the Rhine Valley. The here estimated residence time for trace metals, PCBs and PCDD/Fs in tree bark is >10 years. Thus, all pollution observed by tree bark biomonitoring can be older than 10 years. The PCB baseline concentration (sum of seven PCB indicators (Σ₇PCB_ind)) determined on tree barks from a remote area in the Vosges mountains is 4 ng g⁻¹ and corresponds to 0.36 × 10⁻³ ng toxic equivalent (TEQ) g⁻¹ for the dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs). The northern Rhine harbor suffered especially from steel plant, waste incinerator and thermal power plant emissions. The polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran (PCDD/Fs) concentrations analyzed in tree barks from this industrial area range between 392 and 1420 ng kg⁻¹ dry-weight (dw) corresponding to 3.9 ng TEQ_PCDD/Fs kg⁻¹ to 17.8 ng TEQ_PCDD/Fs kg⁻¹, respectively. Highest PCDD/F values of 7.2 ng TEQ kg⁻¹ to 17.8 ng TEQ kg⁻¹ have been observed close to and at a distance of <2 km southwest of the chemical waste incinerator. However, very close to this incinerator lowest TEQ dioxin-like PCB (TEQ_DL-PCB) values of 0.006 ng TEQ g⁻¹ have been found. On the other hand close to and southwest and northeast of the steel plant the values are comparatively higher and range between 0.011 ng TEQ g⁻¹ and 0.026 ng TEQ g⁻¹. However, even stronger Σ₇PCB_ind enrichments have been observed at a few places in the city center of Kehl, where ΣDL-PCB values of up to 0.11 ng TEQ g⁻¹ have been detected. These enrichments, however, are the result of ancient pollutions since recent long-term measurements at the same sites indicate that the atmospheric PCB concentrations are close to baseline. Emissions from an old landfill of waste and/or great fires might have been the reasons of these PCB enrichments. Other urban environments of the cities of Kehl and Strasbourg show significantly lower Σ₇PCB_ind concentrations. They suffer especially from road and river traffic and have typically Σ₇PCB_ind concentrations ranging from 11 ng g⁻¹ to 29 ng g⁻¹. The PCB concentration of 29 ng g⁻¹ has been found in tree bark close to the railway station of Strasbourg. Nevertheless, the corresponding TEQ_DL-PCB are low and range between 0.2 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹ and 7 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹. Samples collected near road traffic are enriched in Fe, Sb, Sn and Pb. Cd enrichments were found close to almost all types of industries. Rural environments not far from industrial sites suffered from organic and inorganic pollution. In this case, TEQ_DL-PCB values may reach up to 58 × 10⁻³ ng TEQ g⁻¹ and the corresponding V, Cr, Co, Ni, and Cd concentrations are comparatively high.