Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.     

哈尔滨站径流、输沙的多时间尺度特征

水沙多时间尺度变化的复杂结构分析可为短期及中长期水沙预测提供科学依据。选用松花江哈尔滨控制站1955-2005年年均面降雨量、年均径流和输沙量数据,采用小波多尺度分析方法,分析哈尔滨站主要水文要素的周期及其多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明:哈尔滨站降雨、径流和输沙量序列主周期基本一致且均存在多时间尺度特征。三要素的第一主周期为24.0~26.0 a,第二主周期为17.0~18.0 a,第三主周期为6.0~7.0 a。在7 a时间尺度上,20世纪50-60年代,降雨、径流和输沙量序列的曲线变化基本同步。20世纪70年代,由于大规模人口迁入以及为解决粮食问题的水土资源开发导致了三条曲线发生紊乱,20世纪80年代后黑土地综合治理措施的实施使得三条曲线重新趋于一致。在17 a和26 a时间尺度上,受引水工程、兴建水库等人类活动的影响,三条曲线间的变化出现不同步现象。水沙丰枯变化及奇异点判断与时间尺度有密切关系,离开时间尺度的变化趋势是毫无意义的。     

模拟烟气中NO、NO_x的微生物净化效率强化研究

NO的脱除效率已成为微生物净化燃煤烟气NOx双塔流程的瓶颈。为了提高微生物净化烟气中NO、NOx的效率,分别研究了脱硫塔添加Fe SO4·7H2O、脱氮塔添加Na NO2对微生物净化模拟烟气中NO、NOx效率的影响作用。结果表明:脱硫塔添加0.23 g/L Fe SO4·7H2O,其NO平均脱除率为61.04%,比空白试验的35.31%提高明显;脱硫塔NOx平均脱除率为62.16%,比空白试验的31.10%提高约1倍;双塔NOx平均总脱除率从空白试验的61.8%增至86.9%。浓度梯度试验结果表明:0.23 g/L Fe SO4·7H2O是脱硫塔内较为合适的添加浓度。脱氮塔添加0.50 g/L Na NO2后,脱氮塔NO平均脱除率从空白试验的39.92%提高到52.11%;脱氮塔NOx平均脱除率从空白试验的47.67%增至58.90%;双塔NOx平均总脱除率从空白试验的70.75%增至79.32%。反复多次验证试验均证明:Fe SO4·7H2O和Na NO2的分别添加的确大幅度地强化了烟气中NO、NOx的微生物净化效率。     

对几种大气环境预测方法的评估

本文根据石家庄市的常规气象资料和混合层高度,用不同的计算模式和计算方法对本市特征污染因子SO_4的长期平均浓度进行计算,把计算结果与实测浓度比较并进行误差分析,对每种计算方法进行评价,最后讨论了各种计算方法的特点及在城市大气环境预测中的实用性.     

滇池生态动力学模型的改进

在分析滇池生态系统的基础上,从滇池浮游植物的优势种出发,根据各种藻大的生长特性．分别给予不同的温度限制因子,以此推求其增殖速率,并根据不同时期、不同地点优势藻种的构成比,加权出该时段浮游植物总的生长率。这一改进克服了以往模拟计算中把参数取为常数的缺陷．较好地模拟了浮游植物的生长过程和ＴＮ、ＴＰ等水质指标的年内变化情况。      

稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响

利用藻类生长潜力测试方法,在太湖五里湖区水样中分别添加不同浓度轻,中、重３种稀土元素、Ｇｄ（Ⅲ）、Ｙ（Ⅲ）与３种稀土混合物,研究稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响。     

浑河野生鲫鱼体内重金属污染水平与金属硫蛋白基因表达

为揭示浑河重金属污染的潜在生态风险,分析测定了浑河野生鲫鱼体内重金属的残留水平以及肝和鳃组织中金属硫蛋白基因表达.对鱼体各组织中Cr、Cd、Pb、Cu和Zn含量的分析结果显示,各组织重金属含量的排序为肠＞肝＞鳃＞肌肉,且Zn含量最高(17.49～ 176.01 mg·kg-1,以湿体质量计算),Cd含量最低(N.D.～...     

The influence of the charge-to-mass ratio of the charged water mist on a methane explosion

To study the influence of the charge-to-mass ratio of a charged water mist on a methane explosion, the induction charging method was used to induce charge on a normal water mist; a mesh target method was employed to test the charge-to-mass ratio of its droplets. The propagation images, propagation average velocities, and overpressures of a methane explosion suppressed by charged water mist were analysed. The influence of the charge-to-mass ratio of the suppressant water mist on a methane explosion was studied. Results show that the explosion temperature, propagation average velocity, and peak overpressure deceased more obviously with charged water mist than ordinary water mist. With increasing charge-to-mass ratio, the suppression effect of the charged water mist underwent a significant increase. Under experimental conditions, compared with ordinary water mist, when the charge-to-mass ratio was 0.445 mC/kg and the mist flux was 4 L, the minimum flame propagation average velocity was 3.456 m/s, with a drop of 2.37 m/s (40.68%), and the peak overpressure of the methane explosion was 10.892 kPa, with a drop of 10.798 kPa (49.78%). The suppression effect is considered from the changes of the physico-chemical properties of the water mist as affected by the applied charge-to-mass ratio.     

一种河流中突发污染事故的模拟模型

介绍了一种快速、稳定且灵活的水污染紧急事故模拟模型。所开发的水污染紧急事故应急系统模拟模型 ,可用以追踪模拟水污染事故发生后直到污染状况达到稳定期间的水污染状况。比较其结果 ,证明此模型所得稳定后的浓度场与K ε二方程模型所得结果是一致的     

Euclid贴近度-灰色关联模型在环境评价中的应用

在结合实例进行分析的基础上,指出了传统的灰色平均关联度可能出现的关联度和实际的贴近程度不一致的缺陷。通过引入欧几里德贴近度,建立欧几里德贴近度-灰色关联复合模型,解决了灰色平均关联度的这一不足,并结合石家庄市地表水环境质量评价说明该模型的应用,得到了与实际情况一致的评价结论,表明这一模型是合理和可行的。