高温环境下气藏型储气库泥岩盖层密封性评价

为探究高温作用对泥岩盖层密封性的影响,从理论上剖析储气库盖层产生热应力的3种形式,在室内试验的基础上,分析泥岩在高温环境下力学损伤程度和盖层物性封闭评价指标随温度变化特征.结果表明:高温环境下泥岩整体结构性能降低,400℃左右是泥岩在周期热应力作用下损伤的阈值温度;高温作用会显著改变泥岩盖层物性封闭特征,400℃左右是...     

贵州红枫湖地区冷暖两季土壤/大气界面间汞交换通量的对比

采用动力学通量箱(Dynamic Flux Chamber,DFC)与高时间分辨率自动大气测汞仪联用技术,于2002年7月和2003年3月对红枫湖地区土壤/大气界面上汞交换通量进行了测定.夏冬2季土壤-大气汞的交换通量分别为(27.4±40.1)ng·(m²·h)^-1(n=255)和(5.6±19.4)ng·(m²·h)^-1(n=192).夏季汞交换通量和光照、气温及土壤温度的相关系数分别为0.74、0.83和0.80,而冬季分别为0.88、0.56和0.59.对比研究表明:暖季土壤向大气的释汞通量远高于冷季;2个季节光照、温度等气象因素对土壤/大气界面间汞交换均有重要的影响.     

REAL CODED GENETIC ALGORITHM OPTIMIZATION OF LONG TERM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: An optimization and simulation model holds promise as an efficient and robust method for long term reservoir operation, an increasingly important facet of managing water resources. Recently, genetic algorithms have been demonstrated to be highly effective optimization methods. According to previous studies, a real coded genetic algorithm (RGA) has many advantages over a binary coded genetic algorithm. Accordingly, this work applies an RGA to obtain the 10‐day (the traditional period of reservoir operation in Taiwan) operating rule curves for the proposed reservoir system. The RGA is combined with an effective and flexible scheme for coding the reservoir rule curves and applied to an important reservoir in Taiwan, considering a water reservoir development scenario to the year 2021. Each rule curve is evaluated using a complex simulation model to determine a performance index for a given flow series. The process of generating and evaluating decision parameters is repeated until no further improvement in performance is obtained. Many experiments were performed to determine the suitable RGA components, including macro evolutionary (ME) selection and blend‐α crossover. Macro evolution (ME) can be applied to prevent the premature problem of the conventional selection scheme of genetic algorithm. The purpose of adjusting a of a crossover scheme is to determine the exploratory or exploitative degree of various subpopulations. The appropriate rule curve searched by an RGA can minimize the water deficit and maintain the high water level of the reservoir. The results also show that the most promising RGA for this problem consists of these revised operators significantly improves the performance of a system. It is also very efficient for optimizing other highly nonlinear systems.     

水库淹没区耕地生态服务功能价值估算研究——以黄金坪水电站为例

以黄金坪水电站为例,采用碳税法、造林成本法以及工业氧价格替代法计算气体调节功能价值,并采用其它多种方法计算水土保持价值,以估算水库淹没区耕地生态服务功能价值。通过研究,使水库淹没区耕地总价值构成及量化趋于合理,为进一步完善淹没区耕地补偿构成和补偿标准提供参考。     

Effects of drawdown scenario on retrogressive lateral erosion in a reservoir

The drawdown of reservoirs behind dams is an important management strategy (e.g., for removal of aging infrastructure, flushing of sediment), and an opportunity to study erosional processes. A numerical model was developed to examine retrogressive bank erosion across reservoir drawdown scenarios and to evaluate factors controlling the rate, volume, and mechanisms of lateral erosion. Modeled processes included dynamic drawdown of groundwater, sequential slope failures via limit equilibrium analysis, and retrogression considering stress interaction between failing blocks. Field measurements were coupled with Staged, Slow, and Rapid drawdown scenarios. Results highlight the importance of including retrogression as an avenue for lateral erosion, as sequential block failures were found to occur in all scenarios except Slow drawdown. This result indicates that bank stability models without some means of characterizing the evolution of slope failure during drawdown are likely underestimating bank failure rates and volumes. In contrast, dynamic groundwater was not found to be a dominant control for any drawdown scenario. Model results also demonstrate that the drawdown increment is a first-order control on slope instability via the development of drained or undrained conditions. A majority of failures occurred under undrained conditions. To maximize slope stability, using slow drawdown to activate internal friction under drained conditions is essential. The design of the drawdown rate created a tradeoff between the amount of impact created and when the impact is produced. The study also articulated the need for coupling models and field observations for rapidly changing systems.     

Comparison of Machine Learning Models Performance on Simulating Reservoir Outflow: A Case Study of Two Reservoirs in Illinois,U.S.A.

Reservoir outflow is an important variable for understanding hydrological processes and water resource management. Natural streamflow variation, in addition to the streamflow regulation provided by dams and reservoirs, can make streamflow difficult to understand and predict. This makes them a challenge to accurately simulate hydrologic processes at a daily scale. In this study, three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were examined and compared to model reservoir outflow. Past, current, and future hydrologic and meteorological data were used as model inputs, and the outflow of next day was used as prediction. Simulation results demonstrated that all three models can reasonably simulate reservoir outflow. For Carlyle Lake, the coefficient of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were each close to one for the three models. The coefficient of determination, relative mean bias, and root mean square error indicated that the SVM performed better than the RF and ANN, but the SVM output displayed a larger relative mean bias than that from RF and ANN. For Lake Shelbyville, the ANN model performed better than RF and SVM when considering the coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, relative mean bias, and root mean square error. The study results demonstrate that the three ML algorithms (RF, SVM, and ANN) are all promising tools for simulating reservoir outflow. Both the accuracy and efficacy of the three ML algorithms are considered to support practitioners in planning reservoir management.     

汶川地震震损水库土坝动力反应与几何坝形的经验关系

在5·12汶川地震后的四川省水库土坝震害调查成果的基础上,选取汶川地震中受损的有完整资料的96座水库土坝为研究对象,应用等效线性模型对土坝进行了二维动力反应分析。选择3条有代表性的汶川地震实测记录,以三水准峰值加速度输入,得到土坝的动力反应(放大系数、最大动剪应力)与土坝几何形状(宽高比、上游坡比、坝高)间的经验关系。结果表明,土坝放大系数和最大动剪应力随着宽高比和上游坡比的增大而减小,随着坝高的增大而增大;输入波的频谱和峰值强度均对土坝动力反应与其几何形状的经验关系有重要影响。     

尾矿库地震液化机理及抗震评估指标体系研究

2008年"5.12"汶川大地震中,四川、陕西和甘肃三省尾矿库均受到不同程度的破坏和影响。本文针对四川汶川地震造成灾区尾矿库排洪系统失效,坝基沉降,坝体滑坡、垮塌、开裂等现状,对尾矿库地震溃坝机理进行了分析,研究了地震作用机理和地震液化的影响因素;在此基础上,建立起用于评估尾矿库抗震能力和地震溃坝可能性的指标体系,指标体系考虑了地震强度、防洪、抗滑、抗渗透和安全管理五个方面,能够较为全面的分析和评估尾矿库在抗震方面的基本特性,并通过研究给出了各个指标的分级方法。该体系的建立为尾矿库抗震能力评估、避免特殊工况下尾矿库溃坝事故的发生具有一定应用价值,可为尾矿库运行期的安全管理提供依据。     

三峡库区兴山县灵老爷崩滑体治理工程施工技术

崩滑体在体积大小、稳定状态、危害程度方面都是千差万别的,要针对不同情况分类处理,对大多数可能产生形态失稳的崩滑体进行监测和预报,对可能产生危害的崩滑体应采取工程治理措施。笔者根据三峡库区兴山县灵老爷崩滑体的具体情况,结合环境要求,提出防治工程的治理方案,并取得良好的效果,对三峡库区其他类似地质问题具有借鉴意义。     

美姑河牛牛坝水电站库区泥石流基本特征

金沙江支流美姑河牛牛坝水电站库区泥石流沟分布面积广、发生频率高。调查结果表明库区现有不同类型泥石流沟31条,其中属于高度危险的泥石流沟4条,中度危险的泥石流沟15条。本文对流域面积较大、活动性较强的12条泥石流的容重、设计流速、流量、冲出量等重要工程参数进行了计算,并对水库蓄水后的泥石流沟状况与发展趋势作了进一步分析,研究表明在水库施工期泥石流灾害对工程建设有较严重的影响,特别是靠近库首的泥石流对工程的安全构成威胁。水库蓄水后,库区泥石流活动程度有所降低,不会明显影响水电站正常运行。