Modeling Opportunity Costs of Conservation in Transitional Landscapes

Abstract:  Conservation scientists recognize the urgency of incorporating opportunity costs into conservation planning. Despite this, applications to date have been limited, perhaps partly because of the difficulty in determining costs in regions with limited data on land prices and ownership. We present methods for estimating opportunity costs of land preservation in landscapes or ecoregions that are a changing mix of agriculture and natural habitat. Our approach derives from the literature on estimating land values as opportunity costs of alternate land uses and takes advantage of general availability of necessary data, even in relatively data-poor regions. The methods integrate probabilities of habitat conversion with region-wide estimates of economic benefits from agricultural land uses and estimate land values with a discount rate to convert annual values into net present values. We applied our method in a landscape undergoing agricultural conversion in Paraguay. Our model of opportunity costs predicted an independent data set of land values and was consistent with implicit discount rates of 15–25%. Model-generated land values were strongly correlated with actual land values even after correcting for the effect of property size and proportion of property that was forested. We used the model to produce a map of opportunity costs and to estimate the costs of conserving forest within two proposed corridors in the landscape. This method can be applied to conservation planning in situations where natural habitat is currently being converted to market-oriented land uses. Incorporating not only biological attributes but also socioeconomic data can help in the design of efficient networks of protected areas that represent biodiversity at minimum costs.     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

缅甸与我国接壤地区森林砍伐遥感监测分析

采用HJ星数据、Landsat TM数据以及MODIS卫星数据,对距中缅边境线100公里的缅方一侧区域进行了监测和分析,结果发现:监测区2001-2009年森林覆盖面积呈下降趋势,但是森林覆盖率降幅有所放缓;监测区内每年的森林火点分布广,且燃烧过的林地,大部分变为农田,一些农田撂荒成为草地。分析认为,当地传统的刀耕火种耕作方式也是该地区森林面积减少原因之一。     

Analysis of deforestation pattern in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

This study examines deforestation in a part of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria between 1987 and 2013 using remote sensing data and geographic information systems. The results indicate an increasing rate of deforestation, an increasing rate of water body loss and a decreasing rate of exposed surface/settlement increase. The results also show that the rate at which cropland/secondary vegetation is increasing is above average while sandbar is increasing below average. The implications of these changes include environmental degradation resulting from loss of biodiversity and loss of forest goods and services. These losses can also affect the social and economic conditions of local people. The study recommends that policies and strategies targeted at slowing down the rate of forest loss and degradation should be pursued.     

Spatially explicit models of land abandonment in the Amazon

Given growing concerns about biodiversity loss and carbon emissions stemming from tropical deforestation, it is important to identify the factors associated with land abandonment as they might indicate areas that were deforested but are unsuitable for long-term cultivation. This article utilizes a high-resolution, Landsat-based data-set called TerraClass to relate land abandonment to precipitation, slope, farmgate price of beef, market access, soil quality, and land tenure characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon. The spatially explicit statistical models reveal that rates of land abandonment increase with higher rainfall and slope values, even when controlling for distance to roads, farmgate prices, type of settlement, and soil quality. Moreover, land adjacent to a major road is more likely to be consistently cultivated, but land near large rivers and far from highways is more likely to be abandoned. Land ownership type also influences the likelihood of land abandonment as settlements based on communal property rights have higher rates of land abandonment than settlements with private lots. These results suggest that policies aimed at occupying tropical forests such as the Amazon must consider these biophysical and socioeconomic factors in order to foster human development aligned with sustainability principles.     

Is aridity restricting deforestation and land uses in the South American Dry Chaco?

In this paper, we explored how aridity influences the regional deforestation and land-use patterns (i.e. crops/pastures) in South American Dry Chaco. To do this, we contrasted land use during last decade (2001–2012) with a spatially explicit aridity index, which we complemented with a crop water balance model. Land-use classifications were performed by considering the temporal variability of NDVI from MODIS satellites, showing that 40 and 60% of deforested land was assigned to crops and pastures, respectively. Results indicate that although the regional deforestation pattern was not associated with the aridity gradient, with drier areas similarly deforested as wetter areas, contrasting differences were observed in the use of this land, with crops mostly located (90%) in wetter areas and pastures evenly distributed across the whole aridity gradient. This research highlighted the strong effect of water limitations on the land-use option after deforestation and may help to set the basis for future land-use planning policies.     

The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems

ABSTRACT

Land-use decisions can change abruptly in response to shocks, and warfare and armed conflicts are among the most drastic and globally frequent shocks. Yet, our understanding of where armed conflict affects land systems, how land-use patterns are impacted, and how far-reaching and persistent these changes are, is partial. We used a spatially detailed dataset on armed conflict and a literature review to explore these questions. A number of key insights emerged from our study: (1) warfare and armed conflict affect land systems mainly in more densely populated areas, regardless of the dominating land use; (2) warfare and armed conflict can impact land systems in major ways, but these effects are diverse and not unidirectional; (3) warfare and armed conflict primarily affects land systems locally, but can forge telecouplings; and (4) although the impact of warfare and armed conflict is often immediate, it can instigate long-lasting land-use legacies.     

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.     

Modeling road building,deforestation and carbon emissions due deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon: the potential impact of oil frontier growth

In the Ecuadorian Amazon roads play the major role in transforming land cover. Since the beginning of the oil development in this region, oil exploration and road building have been linked. The objectives of this paper are twofold: First, to present a scenario of future deforestation as result of expanding the oil frontier in the Ecuadorian Amazon until the year 2030. Second, to produce an analysis of possible carbon emission scenarios as results of the deforestation produced. This paper tries to shed light into how the development of new oil concessions impact land associated environmental services. The paper uses spatial explicit simulations, that are based on parameters built using past land transitions from areas that experimented oil development, and that explain possible outcomes in the year 2030 using current and predicted road network. Simulations indicate that under current transition probabilities and a conservative scenario road construction, more than 2 million hectares will be affected, which is 35% of the area covered by concessions, which would release 51 to 148 MT of carbon to the atmosphere. This paper illustrates the strong links between road building and deforestation, where even small amount of road construction can have large effects on land cover.     

Effectiveness of Community Forestry in Prey Long Forest,Cambodia

Cambodia has 57% forest cover, the second highest in the Greater Mekong region, and a high deforestation rate (1.2%/year, 2005–2010). Community forestry (CF) has been proposed as a way to reduce deforestation and support livelihoods through local management of forests. CF is expanding rapidly in Cambodia. The National Forests Program aims to designate one million hectares of forest to CF by 2030. However, the effectiveness of CF in conservation is not clear due to a global lack of controlled comparisons, multiple meanings of CF, and the context‐specific nature of CF implementation. We assessed the effectiveness of CF by comparing 9 CF sites with paired controls in state production forest in the area of Prey Long forest, Cambodia. We assessed forest condition in 18–20 randomly placed variable‐radius plots and fixed‐area regeneration plots. We surveyed 10% of households in each of the 9 CF villages to determine the proportion that used forest products, as a measure of household dependence on the forest. CF sites had fewer signs of anthropogenic damage (cut stems, stumps, and burned trees), higher aboveground biomass, more regenerating stems, and reduced canopy openness than control areas. Abundance of economically valuable species, however, was higher in control sites. We used survey results and geographic parameters to model factors affecting CF outcomes. Interaction between management type, CF or control, and forest dependence indicated that CF was more effective in cases where the community relied on forest products for subsistence use and income. Efectividad de la Silvicultura Comunal en el Bosque Prey Long, Camboya